Dataset Information

Kidney Donor Profile Index Does Not Accurately Predict the Graft Survival of Pediatric Deceased Donor Kidneys.

ABSTRACT: The new deceased donor kidney allocation algorithm uses a Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI) based on donor characteristics to predict graft survival and divides kidneys into 4 quality groups (ie, KDPI-A, -B, -C, and -D). Pediatric kidneys constitute 10% to 12% of deceased donor kidneys. We hypothesized that KDPI would not accurately predict pediatric donor graft survival and superior predictive models could be created.Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data for years 2000 to 2010 for transplants from child (<10 years) and adolescent (10-17 years inclusive) donors into first-time adult recipients were analyzed with graft failure as the principle outcome. Two novel indices, Child Donor Index (CDI) and Adolescent Donor Index (ADI), were developed using stepwise variable deletion to identify significant model covariates in a Cox Regression. Pediatric donor kidneys were then classified into the 4 quality groups based on both KDPI and CDI/ADI scores. The performance of the KDPI, CDI, and ADI models were compared with respect to the 4 quality groups defined by the new allocation system.The KDPI did not effectively discriminate between quality groups (P > 0.05 for all but 1 comparison) in Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. The CDI and ADI included novel variables (eg, body mass index percentiles) and successfully discriminated between quality groups (P < 0.05 by log rank test). The Net Reclassification Index showed improvement when switching from KDPI to CDI and ADI, with values of 0.09 (P < 0.001) and 0.073 (P < 0.001), respectively.The KDPI does not accurately predict pediatric kidney graft survival. Alternative indices can improve allocation efficiency.

SUBMITTER: Parker WF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4940335 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Kidney Donor Profile Index Does Not Accurately Predict the Graft Survival of Pediatric Deceased Donor Kidneys.

Parker William F WF Thistlethwaite J Richard JR Ross Lainie Friedman LF

Transplantation 20161101 11

<h4>Background</h4>The new deceased donor kidney allocation algorithm uses a Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI) based on donor characteristics to predict graft survival and divides kidneys into 4 quality groups (ie, KDPI-A, -B, -C, and -D). Pediatric kidneys constitute 10% to 12% of deceased donor kidneys. We hypothesized that KDPI would not accurately predict pediatric donor graft survival and superior predictive models could be created.<h4>Methods</h4>Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipient ...[more]

PMID: 26760565

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Project description:Several recipient biomarkers are reported to predict graft dysfunction, but these are not useful in decision making for the acceptance or allocation of deceased donor kidneys; thus, it is necessary to develop donor biomarkers predictive of graft dysfunction. To address this issue, we prospectively enrolled 94 deceased donors and their 109 recipients who underwent transplantation between 2010 and 2013 at 4 Korean transplantation centers. We investigated the predictive values of donor urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), and L-type fatty acid binding protein (L-FABP) for reduced graft function (RGF). We also developed a prediction model of RGF using these donor biomarkers. RGF was defined as delayed or slow graft function. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to generate a prediction model, which was internally validated using a bootstrapping method. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to assess the association of biomarkers with 1-year graft function. Notably, donor urinary NGAL levels were associated with donor AKI (P = 0.014), and donor urinary NGAL and L-FABP were predictive for RGF, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROC) of 0.758 and 0.704 for NGAL and L-FABP, respectively. The best-fit model including donor urinary NGAL, L-FABP, and serum creatinine conveyed a better predictive value for RGF than donor serum creatinine alone (P = 0.02). In addition, we generated a scoring method to predict RGF based on donor urinary NGAL, L-FABP, and serum creatinine levels. Diagnostic performance of the RGF prediction score (AUROC 0.808) was significantly better than that of the DGF calculator (AUROC 0.627) and the kidney donor profile index (AUROC 0.606). Donor urinary L-FABP levels were also predictive of 1-year graft function (P = 0.005). Collectively, these findings suggest donor urinary NGAL and L-FABP to be useful biomarkers for RGF, and support the use of a new scoring system based on donor biomarkers to facilitate decision-making in acceptance and allocation of deceased donor kidneys and contribute to maximal organ utilization.

Project description:Importance:The shortage of deceased donor kidneys for transplants is an ongoing concern. Prior studies support transplanting kidneys from deceased donors with acute kidney injury (AKI), but those investigations have been subject to selection bias and small sample sizes. Current allocation practices of AKI kidneys in the United States are not well characterized. Objectives:To evaluate the association of deceased donor AKI with recipient graft survival and to characterize recovery and discard practices for AKI kidneys by organ procurement organizations. Design, Setting, and Participants:Registry-based, propensity score-matched cohort study from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2013, in the United States. The dates of analysis were March 1 to November 1, 2019. From 2010 to 2013, a total of 6832 deceased donors with AKI and 15 310 deceased donors without AKI had at least 1 kidney transplanted. This study used a 1:1, propensity score-matched analysis to match deceased donors with AKI to deceased donors without AKI and investigated outcomes in their corresponding kidney recipients. Exposure:Deceased donor AKI, defined as at least 50% or 0.3-mg/dL increase in terminal serum creatinine level from admission. Main Outcomes and Measures:Recipients were assessed for the time to death-censored graft failure and the following secondary outcomes: delayed graft function, primary nonfunction, and the time to all-cause graft failure. Results:Ninety-eight percent (6722 of 6832) of deceased donors with AKI were matched to deceased donors without AKI. The mean (SD) age of the 13 444 deceased donors was 40.4 (14.4) years, and 63% (8529 of 13 444) were male. A total of 25 323 recipients were analyzed (15 485 [61%] were male), and their mean (SD) age was 52.0 (14.7) years. Recipients were followed up for a median of 5 (interquartile range, 4-6) years. Deceased donor AKI status had no association with death-censored graft failure (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.95-1.08) or all-cause graft failure (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.93-1.02). The results were consistent after examining by AKI stage and adjusting for recipient and transplant characteristics. More recipients of AKI kidneys developed delayed graft function (29% vs 22%, P < .001). Few recipients (120 of 25 323 [0.5%]) developed primary nonfunction regardless of deceased donor AKI status. Recovery and transplantation of AKI kidneys varied by organ procurement organization; most (39 of 58) had high recovery and high discard of AKI kidneys. Conclusions and Relevance:Deceased donor AKI kidneys transplanted in the study period had recipient graft survival comparable to that of non-AKI kidneys. This study's findings suggest that the transplant community should evaluate whether currently discarded AKI kidneys from donors without substantial comorbidities can be used more effectively.

Project description:ImportanceIn the US, live donor (LD) kidney transplant rates have decreased in pediatric recipients. Pediatric patients with kidney failure will likely need more than 1 kidney transplant during their lifetime, but the optimal sequence of transplant (ie, deceased donor [DD] followed by LD or vice versa) is not known.ObjectiveTo determine whether pediatric recipients should first receive a DD allograft followed by an LD allograft (DD-LD sequence) or an LD allograft followed by a DD allograft (LD-DD sequence).Design, setting, and participantsThis decision analytical model examined US pediatric patients with kidney failure included in the US Renal Data System 2019 Report who were waiting for a kidney transplant, received a transplant, or experienced graft failure.InterventionsKidney transplant sequences of LD-DD vs DD-LD.Main outcomes and measuresDifference in projected life-years between the 2 sequence options.ResultsAmong patients included in the analysis, the LD-DD sequence provided more net life-years in those 5 years of age (1.82 [95% CI, 0.87-2.77]) and 20 years of age (2.23 [95% CI, 1.31-3.15]) compared with the DD-LD sequence. The net outcomes in patients 10 years of age (0.36 [95% CI, -0.51 to 1.23] additional life-years) and 15 years of age (0.64 [95% CI, -0.15 to 1.39] additional life-years) were not significantly different. However, for those aged 10 years, an LD-DD sequence was favored if eligibility for a second transplant was low (2.09 [95% CI, 1.20-2.98] additional life-years) or if the LD was no longer available (2.32 [95% CI, 1.52-3.12] additional life-years). For those aged 15 years, the LD-DD sequence was favored if the eligibility for a second transplant was low (1.84 [95% CI, 0.96-2.72] additional life-years) or if the LD was no longer available (2.49 [95% CI, 1.77-3.27] additional life-years). Access to multiple DD transplants did not compensate for missing the LD opportunity.Conclusions and relevanceThese findings suggest that the decreased use of LD kidney transplants in pediatric recipients during the past 2 decades should be scrutinized. Given the uncertainty of future recipient eligibility for retransplant and future availability of an LD transplant, the LD-DD sequence is likely the better option. This strategy of an LD transplant first would not only benefit pediatric recipients but allow DD kidneys to be used by others who do not have an LD option.

Dataset Information

Kidney Donor Profile Index Does Not Accurately Predict the Graft Survival of Pediatric Deceased Donor Kidneys.

Publications

Kidney Donor Profile Index Does Not Accurately Predict the Graft Survival of Pediatric Deceased Donor Kidneys.

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