Dataset Information

Incidence of Dementia over Three Decades in the Framingham Heart Study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The prevalence of dementia is expected to soar as the average life expectancy increases, but recent estimates suggest that the age-specific incidence of dementia is declining in high-income countries. Temporal trends are best derived through continuous monitoring of a population over a long period with the use of consistent diagnostic criteria. We describe temporal trends in the incidence of dementia over three decades among participants in the Framingham Heart Study. METHODS:Participants in the Framingham Heart Study have been under surveillance for incident dementia since 1975. In this analysis, which included 5205 persons 60 years of age or older, we used Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for age and sex to determine the 5-year incidence of dementia during each of four epochs. We also explored the interactions between epoch and age, sex, apolipoprotein E ?4 status, and educational level, and we examined the effects of these interactions, as well as the effects of vascular risk factors and cardiovascular disease, on temporal trends. RESULTS:The 5-year age- and sex-adjusted cumulative hazard rates for dementia were 3.6 per 100 persons during the first epoch (late 1970s and early 1980s), 2.8 per 100 persons during the second epoch (late 1980s and early 1990s), 2.2 per 100 persons during the third epoch (late 1990s and early 2000s), and 2.0 per 100 persons during the fourth epoch (late 2000s and early 2010s). Relative to the incidence during the first epoch, the incidence declined by 22%, 38%, and 44% during the second, third, and fourth epochs, respectively. This risk reduction was observed only among persons who had at least a high school diploma (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.88). The prevalence of most vascular risk factors (except obesity and diabetes) and the risk of dementia associated with stroke, atrial fibrillation, or heart failure have decreased over time, but none of these trends completely explain the decrease in the incidence of dementia. CONCLUSIONS:Among participants in the Framingham Heart Study, the incidence of dementia has declined over the course of three decades. The factors contributing to this decline have not been completely identified. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.).

SUBMITTER: Satizabal CL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4943081 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Incidence of Dementia over Three Decades in the Framingham Heart Study.

Satizabal Claudia L CL Beiser Alexa S AS Chouraki Vincent V Chêne Geneviève G Dufouil Carole C Seshadri Sudha S

The New England journal of medicine 20160201 6

<h4>Background</h4>The prevalence of dementia is expected to soar as the average life expectancy increases, but recent estimates suggest that the age-specific incidence of dementia is declining in high-income countries. Temporal trends are best derived through continuous monitoring of a population over a long period with the use of consistent diagnostic criteria. We describe temporal trends in the incidence of dementia over three decades among participants in the Framingham Heart Study.<h4>Metho ...[more]

PMID: 26863354

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Project description:ImportanceAge-adjusted hip fracture incidence is decreasing in the US. The decrease has been attributed to osteoporosis treatment, but the cause is unknown.ObjectiveTo examine the decrease in hip fracture incidence over the past 40 years in the US.Design, setting, and participantsA population-based cohort study using participants in the Framingham Heart Study was conducted. A total of 4918 men and 5634 women were followed up prospectively for the first hip fracture between January 1, 1970, and December 31, 2010. Data were analyzed from May 1, 2019, to May 30, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresIncidence of hip fracture and contemporaneous prevalence of risk factors for hip fractures analyzed with age-period-cohort models.ResultsThe study contained more than 105 000 person-years in 10 552 individuals with a gradual shift toward the offspring participants in the 1980s and 1990s. Women represented more than 55% of the study sample over the years. Adjusted for age, the incidence of hip fracture decreased by 4.4% (95% CI, 6.8%-1.9%) per year from 1970 to 2010. Both period associations (P < .001) and birth cohort associations (P < .001) were statistically significant. For example, in persons aged 85 to 89 years, the incidence of hip fracture was 759 per 100 000 person-years in the offspring group compared with 2018 per 100 000 person-years in the original cohort. The decrease in hip fracture incidence was coincident with a decrease in smoking and heavy drinking. Smoking decreased from 38% in the 1970s to 15% in the late 2000s, while heavy drinking decreased from 7.0% to 4.5%. The prevalence of other risk factors for hip fracture, such as underweight (body mass index <18.5), obesity (body mass index >30), and early menopause (age <45 years) were stable over the study period. When persons who never smoked were evaluated, a change in the incidence of -3.2% (95% CI, -6.0% to -0.4%) per year was observed. The difference between the decrease of the entire population and nonsmokers of 1.5% per year was similar to the hazard ratio conferred by smoking (hazard ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.14-1.96).Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, individuals born more recently appeared to have a low risk for hip fracture. Reductions in smoking and heavy drinking were the risk factor changes coincident with the observed decrease in hip fracture. Attributing the decrease in hip fracture incidence up to 2010 solely to better treatment is not supported by these data, emphasizing the need to treat patients with osteoporosis while continuing to encourage public health interventions for smoking cessation and heavy drinking.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:The purpose of this study was to describe the temporal trends in prevalence of left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) in individuals without and with heart failure (HF) in the community over a 3-decade period of observation. BACKGROUND:Temporal trends in the prevalence and management of major risk factors may affect the epidemiology of HF. METHODS:We compared the frequency, correlates, and prognosis of LVSD (left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] <50%) among Framingham Study participants without and with clinical HF in 3 decades (1985 to 1994, 1995 to 2004, and 2005 to 2014). RESULTS:Among participants without HF (12,857 person-observations, mean age 53 years, 56% women), the prevalence of LVSD on echocardiography decreased (3.38% in 1985 to 1994 vs. 2.2% in 2005 to 2014; p < 0.0001), whereas mean LVEF increased (65% vs. 68%; p < 0.001). The elevated risk associated with LVSD (?2- to 4-fold risk of HF or death) remained unchanged over time. Among participants with new-onset HF (n = 894, mean age 75 years, 52% women), the frequency of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) increased (preserved LVEF ?50%: 41.0% in 1985 to 1994 vs. 56.17% in 2005 to 2014; p < 0.001) and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) decreased (reduced LVEF <40%: 44.10% vs. 31.06%; p = 0.002), whereas heart failure with midrange LVEF remained unchanged (LVEF 40% to <50%: 14.90% vs. 12.77%; p = 0.66). Cardiovascular mortality associated with HFrEF declined across decades (hazard ratio: 0.61; 95% confidence interval: 0.39 to 0.97), but remained unchanged for heart failure with midrange LVEF and HFpEF. Approximately 47% of the observed increase in LVEF among those without HF and 75% of the rising proportion of HFpEF across decades was attributable to trends in risk factors, especially a decline in the prevalence of coronary heart disease among those with HF. CONCLUSIONS:The profile of HF in the community has changed in recent decades, with a lower prevalence of LVSD and an increased frequency of HFpEF, presumably due to concomitant risk factor trends.

Project description:BackgroundIdentification of reliable, affordable, and easy-to-use strategies for detection of dementia is sorely needed. Digital technologies, such as individual voice recordings, offer an attractive modality to assess cognition but methods that could automatically analyze such data are not readily available.Methods and findingsWe used 1264 voice recordings of neuropsychological examinations administered to participants from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), a community-based longitudinal observational study. The recordings were 73 min in duration, on average, and contained at least two speakers (participant and examiner). Of the total voice recordings, 483 were of participants with normal cognition (NC), 451 recordings were of participants with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 330 were of participants with dementia (DE). We developed two deep learning models (a two-level long short-term memory (LSTM) network and a convolutional neural network (CNN)), which used the audio recordings to classify if the recording included a participant with only NC or only DE and to differentiate between recordings corresponding to those that had DE from those who did not have DE (i.e., NDE (NC+MCI)). Based on 5-fold cross-validation, the LSTM model achieved a mean (±std) area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.740 ± 0.017, mean balanced accuracy of 0.647 ± 0.027, and mean weighted F1 score of 0.596 ± 0.047 in classifying cases with DE from those with NC. The CNN model achieved a mean AUC of 0.805 ± 0.027, mean balanced accuracy of 0.743 ± 0.015, and mean weighted F1 score of 0.742 ± 0.033 in classifying cases with DE from those with NC. For the task related to the classification of participants with DE from NDE, the LSTM model achieved a mean AUC of 0.734 ± 0.014, mean balanced accuracy of 0.675 ± 0.013, and mean weighted F1 score of 0.671 ± 0.015. The CNN model achieved a mean AUC of 0.746 ± 0.021, mean balanced accuracy of 0.652 ± 0.020, and mean weighted F1 score of 0.635 ± 0.031 in classifying cases with DE from those who were NDE.ConclusionThis proof-of-concept study demonstrates that automated deep learning-driven processing of audio recordings of neuropsychological testing performed on individuals recruited within a community cohort setting can facilitate dementia screening.

Dataset Information

Incidence of Dementia over Three Decades in the Framingham Heart Study.

Publications

Incidence of Dementia over Three Decades in the Framingham Heart Study.

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