Dataset Information

Applications of Extreme Value Theory in Public Health.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

We present how Extreme Value Theory (EVT) can be used in public health to predict future extreme events.

Methods

We applied EVT to weekly rates of Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) deaths over 1979-2011. We further explored the daily number of emergency department visits in a network of 37 hospitals over 2004-2014. Maxima of grouped consecutive observations were fitted to a generalized extreme value distribution. The distribution was used to estimate the probability of extreme values in specified time periods.

Results

An annual P&I death rate of 12 per 100,000 (the highest maximum observed) should be exceeded once over the next 30 years and each year, there should be a 3% risk that the P&I death rate will exceed this value. Over the past 10 years, the observed maximum increase in the daily number of visits from the same weekday between two consecutive weeks was 1133. We estimated at 0.37% the probability of exceeding a daily increase of 1000 on each month.

Conclusion

The EVT method can be applied to various topics in epidemiology thus contributing to public health planning for extreme events.

SUBMITTER: Thomas M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4946775 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Applications of Extreme Value Theory in Public Health.

Thomas Maud M Lemaitre Magali M Wilson Mark L ML Viboud Cécile C Yordanov Youri Y Wackernagel Hans H Carrat Fabrice F

PloS one 20160715 7

<h4>Objectives</h4>We present how Extreme Value Theory (EVT) can be used in public health to predict future extreme events.<h4>Methods</h4>We applied EVT to weekly rates of Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) deaths over 1979-2011. We further explored the daily number of emergency department visits in a network of 37 hospitals over 2004-2014. Maxima of grouped consecutive observations were fitted to a generalized extreme value distribution. The distribution was used to estimate the probability of extr ...[more]

PMID: 27419853

Similar Datasets

Project description:The new generation of whole genome sequencing platforms offers great possibilities and challenges for dissecting the genetic basis of complex traits. With a very high number of sequence variants, a naïve multiple hypothesis threshold correction hinders the identification of reliable associations by the overreduction of statistical power. In this report, we examine 2 alternative approaches to improve the statistical power of a whole genome association study to detect reliable genetic associations. The approaches were tested using the Genetic Analysis Workshop 19 (GAW19) whole genome sequencing data. The first tested method estimates the real number of effective independent tests actually being performed in whole genome association project by the use of an extreme value distribution and a set of phenotype simulations. Given the familiar nature of the GAW19 data and the finite number of pedigree founders in the sample, the number of correlations between genotypes is greater than in a set of unrelated samples. Using our procedure, we estimate that the effective number represents only 15 % of the total number of independent tests performed. However, even using this corrected significance threshold, no genome-wide significant association could be detected for systolic and diastolic blood pressure traits. The second approach implements a biological relevance-driven hypothesis tested by exploiting prior computational predictions on the effect of nonsynonymous genetic variants detected in a whole genome sequencing association study. This guided testing approach was able to identify 2 promising single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), 1 for each trait, targeting biologically relevant genes that could help shed light on the genesis of the human hypertension. The first gene, PFH14, associated with systolic blood pressure, interacts directly with genes involved in calcium-channel formation and the second gene, MAP4, encodes a microtubule-associated protein and had already been detected by previous genome-wide association study experiments conducted in an Asian population. Our results highlight the necessity of the development of alternative approached to improve the efficiency on the detection of reasonable candidate associations in whole genome sequencing studies.

Project description:Leadership in public health is necessary, relevant, and important as it enables the engagement, management, and transformation of complex public health challenges at a national level, as well as collaborating with internal stakeholders to address global public health threats. The research literature recommends exploring the journey of public health leaders and the factors influencing leadership development, especially in developing countries. Thus, we aimed to develop a grounded theory on individual leadership development in the Nepalese context. For this, we adopted constructivist grounded theory, and conducted 46 intensive interviews with 22 public health officials working under the Ministry of Health, Nepal. Data were analysed by adopting the principles of Charmaz's constructivist grounded theory. The theory developed from this study illustrates four phases of leadership development within an individual-initiation, identification, development, and expansion. The 'initial phase' is about an individual's wishes to be a leader without a formal role or acknowledgement, where family environment, social environment and individual characteristics play a role in influencing the actualisation of leadership behaviours. The 'identification phase' involves being identified as a public health official after having formal position in health-related organisations. The 'development' phase is about developing core leadership capabilities mostly through exposure and experiences. The 'expansion' phase describes expanding leadership capabilities and recognition mostly by continuous self-directed learning. The grounded theory provides insights into the meaning and actions of participants' professional experiences and highlighted the role of individual characteristics, family and socio-cultural environment, and workplace settings in the development of leadership capabilities. It has implications for academia to fulfill the absence of leadership theory in public health and is significant to fulfill the need of leadership models grounded in the local context of Asian countries.

Project description:With the growing climate change crisis, public health agencies and practitioners must increasingly develop guidance documents addressing the public health risks and protective measures associated with multi-hazard events. Our Policy and Practice Review aims to assess current public health guidance and related messaging about co-exposure to wildfire smoke and extreme heat and recommend strengthened messaging to better protect people from these climate-sensitive hazards. We reviewed public health messaging published by governmental agencies between January 2013 and May 2023 in Canada and the United States. Publicly available resources were eligible if they discussed the co-occurrence of wildfire smoke and extreme heat and mentioned personal interventions (protective measures) to prevent exposure to either hazard. We reviewed local, regional, and national governmental agency messaging resources, such as online fact sheets and guidance documents. We assessed these resources according to four public health messaging themes, including (1) discussions around vulnerable groups and risk factors, (2) symptoms associated with these exposures, (3) health risks of each exposure individually, and (4) health risks from combined exposure. Additionally, we conducted a detailed assessment of current messaging about measures to mitigate exposure. We found 15 online public-facing resources that provided health messaging about co-exposure; however, only one discussed all four themes. We identified 21 distinct protective measures mentioned across the 15 resources. There is considerable variability and inconsistency regarding the types and level of detail across described protective measures. Of the identified 21 protective measures, nine may protect against both hazards simultaneously, suggesting opportunities to emphasize these particular messages to address both hazards together. More precise, complete, and coordinated public health messaging would protect against climate-sensitive health outcomes attributable to wildfire smoke and extreme heat co-exposures.

Dataset Information

Applications of Extreme Value Theory in Public Health.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Applications of Extreme Value Theory in Public Health.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets