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Influenza evolution and H3N2 vaccine effectiveness, with application to the 2014/2015 season.

ABSTRACT: Influenza A is a serious disease that causes significant morbidity and mortality, and vaccines against the seasonal influenza disease are of variable effectiveness. In this article, we discuss the use of the pepitope method to predict the dominant influenza strain and the expected vaccine effectiveness in the coming flu season. We illustrate how the effectiveness of the 2014/2015 A/Texas/50/2012 [clade 3C.1] vaccine against the A/California/02/2014 [clade 3C.3a] strain that emerged in the population can be estimated via pepitope In addition, we show by a multidimensional scaling analysis of data collected through 2014, the emergence of a new A/New Mexico/11/2014-like cluster [clade 3C.2a] that is immunologically distinct from the A/California/02/2014-like strains.

SUBMITTER: Li X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4955871 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Influenza evolution and H3N2 vaccine effectiveness, with application to the 2014/2015 season.

Li Xi X Deem Michael W MW

Protein engineering, design & selection : PEDS 20160616 8

Influenza A is a serious disease that causes significant morbidity and mortality, and vaccines against the seasonal influenza disease are of variable effectiveness. In this article, we discuss the use of the pepitope method to predict the dominant influenza strain and the expected vaccine effectiveness in the coming flu season. We illustrate how the effectiveness of the 2014/2015 A/Texas/50/2012 [clade 3C.1] vaccine against the A/California/02/2014 [clade 3C.3a] strain that emerged in the popula ...[more]

PMID: 27313229

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Project description:BackgroundThe A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strain used in the live attenuated influenza vaccine was changed for the 2015-2016 influenza season because of its lack of effectiveness in young children in 2013-2014. The Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network evaluated the effect of this change as part of its estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness in 2015-2016.MethodsWe enrolled patients 6 months of age or older who presented with acute respiratory illness at ambulatory care clinics in geographically diverse U.S. sites. Using a test-negative design, we estimated vaccine effectiveness as (1-OR)×100, in which OR is the odds ratio for testing positive for influenza virus among vaccinated versus unvaccinated participants. Separate estimates were calculated for the inactivated vaccines and the live attenuated vaccine.ResultsAmong 6879 eligible participants, 1309 (19%) tested positive for influenza virus, predominantly for A(H1N1)pdm09 (11%) and influenza B (7%). The effectiveness of the influenza vaccine against any influenza illness was 48% (95% confidence interval [CI], 41 to 55; P<0.001). Among children 2 to 17 years of age, the inactivated influenza vaccine was 60% effective (95% CI, 47 to 70; P<0.001), and the live attenuated vaccine was not observed to be effective (vaccine effectiveness, 5%; 95% CI, -47 to 39; P=0.80). Vaccine effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09 among children was 63% (95% CI, 45 to 75; P<0.001) for the inactivated vaccine, as compared with -19% (95% CI, -113 to 33; P=0.55) for the live attenuated vaccine.ConclusionsInfluenza vaccines reduced the risk of influenza illness in 2015-2016. However, the live attenuated vaccine was found to be ineffective among children in a year with substantial inactivated vaccine effectiveness. Because the 2016-2017 A(H1N1)pdm09 strain used in the live attenuated vaccine was unchanged from 2015-2016, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices made an interim recommendation not to use the live attenuated influenza vaccine for the 2016-2017 influenza season. (Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health.).

Dataset Information

Influenza evolution and H3N2 vaccine effectiveness, with application to the 2014/2015 season.

Publications

Influenza evolution and H3N2 vaccine effectiveness, with application to the 2014/2015 season.

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