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Climate Warming and Seasonal Precipitation Change Interact to Limit Species Distribution Shifts across Western North America.

ABSTRACT: Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations)-despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year). This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species' elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.

SUBMITTER: Harsch MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4957754 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:North American plains bison (Bison bison) have been reintroduced across their former range, yet we know too little about their current diet to understand what drove their past migrations as well as observed continental-scale variation in weight gain and reproduction. In order to better understand the seasonal diets of bison at the continental scale, bison fecal material was collected monthly from April to September in 2019 across 45 sites throughout the conterminous United States. Fecal material was analyzed for dietary quality using near infrared spectroscopy and dietary composition with DNA metabarcoding. As observed in previous research, dietary quality peaked in June and was on average greatest for sites with cold, wet climates. Yet, in April, dietary quality was highest in warmer regions, likely reflecting earlier phenology of plants in southern than northern regions. Independent of climate and season, bison that consumed more warm-season grasses had lower dietary protein concentrations. Interpreting the relative abundance of sequences from different plant species as the relative intake of protein from those species, only 38% of bison protein intake came from grasses. An equal amount of dietary protein came from legumes (38%) and 22% from non-leguminous forbs. Seasonal shifts in bison diet were also clear, in part, following the phenology of functional groups. For example, cool-season grass protein intake was highest in May, while legume protein intake was highest in August. Comparing data taken in June and September 2018 in a previous study with corresponding data in 2019, on average, June [CP] was 20% higher in 2019 than 2018, while September [CP] did not differ between years. Dietary functional group composition was generally similar in amounts and relationships with climate between years, yet in September 2019, legumes contributed 20% more protein and warm-season grasses 14% less than in September 2018. In all, this research demonstrates that bison consistently rely on eudicots for protein with the functional group composition of their diet in some ways consistent across space and time, but also spatially and temporally variable. The early-season inversion of plant quality gradients would have been a strong driver of migratory behavior for large numbers of bison optimizing protein intake. As most bison currently experience protein deficiency, optimizing protein intake under current non-migratory conditions will require increasing the relative abundance of high-protein species such as N2-fixing species.

Dataset Information

Climate Warming and Seasonal Precipitation Change Interact to Limit Species Distribution Shifts across Western North America.

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