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Predictors of slow progression to diabetes in children with multiple islet autoantibodies.

ABSTRACT: Although most children with multiple islet autoantibodies develop type 1 diabetes, rate of progression is highly variable. The goal of this study was to explore potential factors involved in rate of progression to diabetes in children with multiple islet autoantibodies. The Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young (DAISY) has followed 118 children with multiple islet autoantibodies for progression to diabetes. After excluding 27 children currently diabetes-free but followed for <10 years, the study population was grouped into: rapid progressors (N = 39) who developed diabetes in <5 years; moderate progressors (N = 25), diagnosed with diabetes within 5-10 years; and slow progressors (N = 27), diabetes-free for >10 years. Islet autoimmunity appeared at 4.0 ± 3.5, 3.2 ± 1.8 and 5.8 ± 3.1 years of age in rapid, moderate and slow progressors, respectively (p = 0.006). Insulin autoantibody levels were lower in slow progressors compared to moderate and rapid progressors. The groups did not differ by gender, ethnicity, family history, susceptibility HLA and non-HLA genes. The rate of development of individual islet autoantibodies including mIAA, GADA, IA-2A and ZnT8A were all slower in the slow versus moderate/rapid progressors. In multivariate analyses, older age at seroconversion and lower initial mIAA levels independently predicted slower progression to diabetes. Later onset of islet autoimmunity and lower autoantibody levels predicted slower progression to diabetes among children with multiple islet autoantibodies. These factors may need to be considered in the design of trials to prevent type 1 diabetes.

SUBMITTER: Steck AK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4958563 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of slow progression to diabetes in children with multiple islet autoantibodies.

Steck Andrea K AK Dong Fran F Waugh Kathleen K Frohnert Brigitte I BI Yu Liping L Norris Jill M JM Rewers Marian J MJ

Journal of autoimmunity 20160530

Although most children with multiple islet autoantibodies develop type 1 diabetes, rate of progression is highly variable. The goal of this study was to explore potential factors involved in rate of progression to diabetes in children with multiple islet autoantibodies. The Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young (DAISY) has followed 118 children with multiple islet autoantibodies for progression to diabetes. After excluding 27 children currently diabetes-free but followed for <10 years, the st ...[more]

PMID: 27255734

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Project description:Background: Around 0.3% of newborns will develop autoimmunity to pancreatic beta cells in childhood and subsequently develop type 1 diabetes before adulthood. Primary prevention of type 1 diabetes will require early intervention in genetically at-risk infants. The objective of this study was to determine to what extent genetic scores (two previous genetic scores and a merged genetic score) can improve the prediction of type 1 diabetes.Methods and findings: The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study followed genetically at-risk children at 3- to 6-monthly intervals from birth for the development of islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes. Infants were enrolled between 1 September 2004 and 28 February 2010 and monitored until 31 May 2016. The risk (positive predictive value) for developing multiple islet autoantibodies (pre-symptomatic type 1 diabetes) and type 1 diabetes was determined in 4,543 children who had no first-degree relatives with type 1 diabetes and either a heterozygous HLA DR3 and DR4-DQ8 risk genotype or a homozygous DR4-DQ8 genotype, and in 3,498 of these children in whom genetic scores were calculated from 41 single nucleotide polymorphisms. In the children with the HLA risk genotypes, risk for developing multiple islet autoantibodies was 5.8% (95% CI 5.0%-6.6%) by age 6 years, and risk for diabetes by age 10 years was 3.7% (95% CI 3.0%-4.4%). Risk for developing multiple islet autoantibodies was 11.0% (95% CI 8.7%-13.3%) in children with a merged genetic score of >14.4 (upper quartile; n = 907) compared to 4.1% (95% CI 3.3%-4.9%, P < 0.001) in children with a genetic score of ?14.4 (n = 2,591). Risk for developing diabetes by age 10 years was 7.6% (95% CI 5.3%-9.9%) in children with a merged score of >14.4 compared with 2.7% (95% CI 1.9%-3.6%) in children with a score of ?14.4 (P < 0.001). Of 173 children with multiple islet autoantibodies by age 6 years and 107 children with diabetes by age 10 years, 82 (sensitivity, 47.4%; 95% CI 40.1%-54.8%) and 52 (sensitivity, 48.6%, 95% CI 39.3%-60.0%), respectively, had a score >14.4. Scores were higher in European versus US children (P = 0.003). In children with a merged score of >14.4, risk for multiple islet autoantibodies was similar and consistently >10% in Europe and in the US; risk was greater in males than in females (P = 0.01). Limitations of the study include that the genetic scores were originally developed from case-control studies of clinical diabetes in individuals of mainly European decent. It is, therefore, possible that it may not be suitable to all populations.Conclusions: A type 1 diabetes genetic score identified infants without family history of type 1 diabetes who had a greater than 10% risk for pre-symptomatic type 1 diabetes, and a nearly 2-fold higher risk than children identified by high-risk HLA genotypes alone. This finding extends the possibilities for enrolling children into type 1 diabetes primary prevention trials.

Project description:Background and purposePancreatic islet autoantibodies (iAb) are the hallmark of autoimmunity in type 1 diabetes. A more comprehensive understanding of the global iAb prevalence could help reduce avertible morbidity and mortality among children and adolescents and contribute to the understanding in the observed differences in the incidence, prevalence and health outcomes of children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes across and within countries. We present the first scoping review that provides a global synthesis of the prevalence of iAb in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes.Research design and methodsWe searched Ovid MEDLINE® with Daily Update, Embase (Elsevier, embase.com) and PubMed (National Library of Medicine -NCBI), for studies pertaining to prevalence in children and adolescents (0-19) with type 1 diabetes published between 1 Jan 1990 and 18 June 2021. Results were synthesized using Covidence systematic review software and meta-analysis was completed using R v3·6·1. Two reviewers independently screened abstracts with a third reviewer resolving conflicts (k= 0·92).ResultsThe review revealed 125 studies from 48 different countries, with 92 from high-income countries. Globally, in new-onset type 1 diabetes, IA-2A was the most prevalent iAb 0·714 [95% CI (0·71, 0·72)], followed by ICA 0·681 [95% CI (0·67, 0·69)], ZnT8A was 0·654 [95% CI (0·64, 0·66)], GADA 0·636 [95% CI (0·63, 0·66)] and then IAA 0·424 [95% CI (0·42, 0·43)], with substantial variation across world regions. The weighted mean prevalence of IA-2A was more variable, highest in Europe at 0·749 [95% CI (0·74, 0·76)] followed by Northern America 0·662 [95% CI (0·64, 0·69)], Latin America and the Caribbean 0·632 [95% CI (0·54, 0·72)], Oceania 0·603 [95% CI (0·54, 0·67)], Asia 0·466 [95% CI (0·44, 0·50)] and Africa 0·311 [95% CI (0·23, 0·40)]. In established cases of type 1 diabetes, GADA was the most prevalent iAb 0·407 [95% CI (0·39, 0·42)] followed by ZnT8A 0·322 [95% CI (0·29, 0·36)], IA-2A 0·302 [95% CI (0·29, 0·32)], IAA 0·258 [95% CI (0·24, 0·26)] and ICA 0·145 [95% CI (0·13, 0·16)], again with substantial variation across world regions.ConclusionUnderstanding the global prevalence of iAb in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes could help with earlier identification of those at-risk of developing type 1 diabetes and inform clinical practice, health policies, resource allocation, and targeted healthcare interventions to better screen, diagnose and manage children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

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Predictors of slow progression to diabetes in children with multiple islet autoantibodies.

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Predictors of slow progression to diabetes in children with multiple islet autoantibodies.

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