Real-world datasets for portfolio selection and solutions of some stochastic dominance portfolio models.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bruni R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4959918 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Here we have proposed fuzzy portfolio selection model using stochastic correlation (FPSMSC) to overcome limitations both in fuzzy and stochastic world. The newly proposed model not only gets harmonious efficient frontier, but also considers the future movement of stock prices based on fuzzy expertise knowledge. The investment weights of the model have been optimized based on the monthly return data of 18 stocks listed in S&P500 from October 2011 to September 2015. The proposed model has provided higher returns in the whole regime of risk for the period from October 2014 to September 2015, whose monthly return data are used as training data than other available portfolio selection models, i.e., fuzzy portfolio selection models with credibility and possibility and statistic model. Also, the present model has shown the better smoothness of the variations of returns with respect to risk aversion parameter, λ, from the monthly data from October 2015 to September 2016, which is not included to training database. Especially, our model is superior to other models in the regime of 0–0.3 for the risk aversion level. It is demonstrating that the FPSMSC is efficient for the investors who tend to seek the high return in portfolio management. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10614-023-10371-w.
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Project description:In the field of asset allocation, how to balance the returns of an investment portfolio and its fluctuations is the core issue. Capital asset pricing model, arbitrage pricing theory, and Fama-French three-factor model were used to quantify the price of individual stocks and portfolios. Based on the second-order stochastic dominance rule, the higher moments of return series, the Shannon entropy, and some other actual investment constraints, we construct a multiconstraint portfolio optimization model, aiming at comprehensively weighting the returns and risk of portfolios rather than blindly maximizing its returns. Furthermore, the whale optimization algorithm based on FTSE100 index data is used to optimize the above multiconstraint portfolio optimization model, which significantly improves the rate of return of the simple diversified buy-and-hold strategy or the FTSE100 index. Furthermore, extensive experiments validate the superiority of the whale optimization algorithm over the other four swarm intelligence optimization algorithms (gray wolf optimizer, fruit fly optimization algorithm, particle swarm optimization, and firefly algorithm) through various indicators of the results, especially under harsh constraints.
| S-EPMC7474746 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper focuses on a continuous-time dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem of defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary, whose risk comes from both financial market and nonfinancial market. By constructing a special Riccati equation as a continuous (actually a viscosity) solution to the HJB equation, we obtain an explicit closed form solution for the optimal investment portfolio as well as the efficient frontier.
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Project description:The lack of publicly available, large, and unbiased datasets is a key bottleneck for the application of machine learning (ML) methods in synthetic chemistry. Data from electronic laboratory notebooks (ELNs) could provide less biased, large datasets, but no such datasets have been made publicly available. The first real-world dataset from the ELNs of a large pharmaceutical company is disclosed and its relationship to high-throughput experimentation (HTE) datasets is described. For chemical yield predictions, a key task in chemical synthesis, an attributed graph neural network (AGNN) performs as well as or better than the best previous models on two HTE datasets for the Suzuki-Miyaura and Buchwald-Hartwig reactions. However, training the AGNN on an ELN dataset does not lead to a predictive model. The implications of using ELN data for training ML-based models are discussed in the context of yield predictions.
| S-EPMC10189898 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We present comprehensive datasets of Brazilian disasters from January 2003 to February 2021 as well as real-world optimization instances built up from these data. The data were gathered through a series of open available reports obtained from different government and institutional sources. Afterwards, data consolidation and summarization were carried out using Excel and Python. The datasets include 9 types of disaster, such as flash floods, landslides and droughts, and the corresponding number of affected people during an 18-year or a 218-month observation period for 5,402 Brazilian municipalities, totaling more than 65,000 observations. Data on relevant geographical, demographic and socioeconomic aspects of the affected municipalities are also provided. These encompass geographic coordinates, regions, population, income, development indicators, amongst other information. From a statistical point of view, the data on disasters can address a number of applications using both supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques such as, for time series analysis or other dynamic models using socioeconomic data as explanatory variables, i.e. data on the size of the poor population, income, education and general development. The geographic dataset can be useful for aggregating analyses concerning the various forms of territorial organization and allows for the visualization of data in maps. All the aforementioned data can be also used to devise realistic optimization instances related to diverse humanitarian logistics and/or disaster management problems, such as facility location, location-allocation, vehicle routing, and so forth. In particular, we describe two real-world instances for the location-allocation problem studied in [1]. For that purpose, we partially use the given datasets and included other information such as costs and distances relevant to the optimization model. Although using real-world cases to test optimization approaches is a common and encouraged practice in Operations Research, comprehensive datasets and practical optimization instances, as presented in this article, are rarely described and/or available in the academic literature.
| S-EPMC8931360 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe proportion of days covered (PDC) is used to estimate medication adherence by looking at the proportion of days in which a person has access to the medication, over a given period of interest. This study aimed to adapt the PDC algorithm to allow for plausible assumptions about prescription refill behaviour when applied to data from online pharmacy suppliers.MethodsThree PDC algorithms, the conventional approach (PDC1) and two alternative approaches (PDC2 and PDC3), were used to estimate adherence in a real-world dataset from an online pharmacy. Each algorithm has different denominators and increasing levels of complexity. PDC1, the conventional approach, is the total number of days between first dispensation and a defined end date. PDC2 counts the days until the end of supply date. PDC3 removes from the denominator specifically defined large gaps between refills, which could indicate legitimate reasons for treatment discontinuation. The distribution of the three PDCs across four different follow-up lengths was compared.ResultsThe dataset included people taking ACE inhibitors (n = 65,905), statins (n = 100,362), and/or thyroid hormones (n = 30,637). The proportion of people taking ACE inhibitors with PDC ≥ 0.8 was 50-74% for PDC1, 81-91% for PDC2, and 86-100% for PDC3 with values depending on drug and length of follow-up. Similar ranges were identified in people taking statins and thyroid hormones.ConclusionThese algorithms enable researchers and healthcare providers to assess pharmacy services and individual levels of adherence in real-world databases, particularly in settings where people may switch between different suppliers of medicines, meaning an individual supplier's data may show temporary but legitimate gaps in access to medication. Accurately identifying problems with adherence provides the foundation for opportunities to improve experience, adherence and outcomes and to reduce medicines wastage. Research with people taking medications and prescribers is required to validate the algorithms' assumptions.
| S-EPMC8715592 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe quantitative genetics theory argues that inbreeding depression and heterosis are founded on the existence of directional dominance. However, most procedures for genomic selection that have included dominance effects assumed prior symmetrical distributions. To address this, two alternatives can be considered: (1) assume the mean of dominance effects different from zero, and (2) use skewed distributions for the regularization of dominance effects. The aim of this study was to compare these approaches using two pig datasets and to confirm the presence of directional dominance.ResultsFour alternative models were implemented in two datasets of pig litter size that consisted of 13,449 and 11,581 records from 3631 and 2612 sows genotyped with the Illumina PorcineSNP60 BeadChip. The models evaluated included (1) a model that does not consider directional dominance (Model SN), (2) a model with a covariate b for the average individual homozygosity (Model SC), (3) a model with a parameter ? that reflects asymmetry in the context of skewed Gaussian distributions (Model AN), and (4) a model that includes both b and ? (Model Full). The results of the analysis showed that posterior probabilities of a negative b or a positive ? under Models SC and AN were higher than 0.99, which indicate positive directional dominance. This was confirmed with the predictions of inbreeding depression under Models Full, SC and AN, that were higher than in the SN Model. In spite of differences in posterior estimates of variance components between models, comparison of models based on LogCPO and DIC indicated that Model SC provided the best fit for the two datasets analyzed.ConclusionsOur results confirmed the presence of positive directional dominance for pig litter size and suggested that it should be taken into account when dominance effects are included in genomic evaluation procedures. The consequences of ignoring directional dominance may affect predictions of breeding values and can lead to biased prediction of inbreeding depression and performance of potential mates. A model that assumes Gaussian dominance effects that are centered on a non-zero mean is recommended, at least for datasets with similar features to those analyzed here.
| S-EPMC5787328 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper evaluates the degree of saliency of texts in natural scenes using visual saliency models. A large scale scene image database with pixel level ground truth is created for this purpose. Using this scene image database and five state-of-the-art models, visual saliency maps that represent the degree of saliency of the objects are calculated. The receiver operating characteristic curve is employed in order to evaluate the saliency of scene texts, which is calculated by visual saliency models. A visualization of the distribution of scene texts and non-texts in the space constructed by three kinds of saliency maps, which are calculated using Itti's visual saliency model with intensity, color and orientation features, is given. This visualization of distribution indicates that text characters are more salient than their non-text neighbors, and can be captured from the background. Therefore, scene texts can be extracted from the scene images. With this in mind, a new visual saliency architecture, named hierarchical visual saliency model, is proposed. Hierarchical visual saliency model is based on Itti's model and consists of two stages. In the first stage, Itti's model is used to calculate the saliency map, and Otsu's global thresholding algorithm is applied to extract the salient region that we are interested in. In the second stage, Itti's model is applied to the salient region to calculate the final saliency map. An experimental evaluation demonstrates that the proposed model outperforms Itti's model in terms of captured scene texts.
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Project description:Stochastic transmission dynamic models are especially useful for studying the early emergence of novel pathogens given the importance of chance events when the number of infectious individuals is small. However, methods for parameter estimation and prediction for these types of stochastic models remain limited. In this manuscript, we describe a calibration and prediction framework for stochastic compartmental transmission models of epidemics. The proposed method, Multiple Shooting for Stochastic systems (MSS), applies a linear noise approximation to describe the size of the fluctuations, and uses each new surveillance observation to update the belief about the true epidemic state. Using simulated outbreaks of a novel viral pathogen, we evaluate the accuracy of MSS for real-time parameter estimation and prediction during epidemics. We assume that weekly counts for the number of new diagnosed cases are available and serve as an imperfect proxy of incidence. We show that MSS produces accurate estimates of key epidemic parameters (i.e. mean duration of infectiousness, R0, and Reff) and can provide an accurate estimate of the unobserved number of infectious individuals during the course of an epidemic. MSS also allows for accurate prediction of the number and timing of future hospitalizations and the overall attack rate. We compare the performance of MSS to three state-of-the-art benchmark methods: 1) a likelihood approximation with an assumption of independent Poisson observations; 2) a particle filtering method; and 3) an ensemble Kalman filter method. We find that MSS significantly outperforms each of these three benchmark methods in the majority of epidemic scenarios tested. In summary, MSS is a promising method that may improve on current approaches for calibration and prediction using stochastic models of epidemics.
| S-EPMC5240920 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We replicate and extend the adversarial expert based learning approach of Györfi et al to the situation of zero-cost portfolio selection implemented with a quadratic approximation derived from the mutual fund separation theorems. The algorithm is applied to daily sampled sequential Open-High-Low-Close data and sequential intraday 5-minute bar-data from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Statistical tests of the algorithms are considered. The algorithms are directly compared to standard NYSE test cases from prior literature. The learning algorithm is used to select parameters for experts generated by pattern matching past dynamics using a simple nearest-neighbour search algorithm. It is shown that there is a speed advantage associated with using an analytic solution of the mutual fund separation theorems. We argue that the strategies are on the boundary of profitability when considered in the context of their application to intraday quantitative trading but demonstrate that patterns in financial time-series on the JSE could be systematically exploited in collective and that they are persistent in the data investigated. We do not suggest that the strategies can be profitably implemented but argue that these types of patterns may exists for either structural of implementation cost reasons.
| S-EPMC6155486 | biostudies-literature