Dataset Information

Predicting imminent risk for fracture in patients aged 50 or older with osteoporosis using US claims data.

ABSTRACT:

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Patient characteristics contributing to imminent risk for fracture, defined as risk of near-term fracture within the next 12 to 24 months, have not been well defined. In patients without recent fracture, we identified factors predicting imminent risk for vertebral/nonvertebral fracture, including falls, age, comorbidities, and other potential fall risk factors.

Purpose

Several factors contribute to long-term fracture risk in patients with osteoporosis, including age, bone mineral density, and fracture history. Some patients may be at imminent risk for fracture, defined here as a risk of near-term fracture within 12-24 months. Many patient characteristics contributing to imminent risk for fracture have not been well defined. This case-control study used US commercial and Medicare supplemental insured data for women and men without recent fracture to identify factors associated with imminent risk for fracture.

Methods

Patients included were aged ?50 with osteoporosis, had a vertebral or nonvertebral fracture claim (index date; fracture group) or no fracture claim (control group) from January 1, 2006, to September 30, 2012, continuously enrolled and without fracture in the 24 months before index. Potential risk factors during the period before fracture were assessed.

Results

Using data from 12 months before fracture, factors significantly associated with imminent risk for fracture were previous falls, older age, poorer health status, specific comorbidities (psychosis, Alzheimer's disease, central nervous system disease), and other fall risk factors (wheelchair use, psychoactive medication use, mobility impairment). Similar findings were observed with data from 24 months before fracture.

Conclusions

In patients with osteoporosis and no recent fracture, falls, older age, poorer health status, comorbidities, and other potential fall risk factors were predictive of imminent risk for fracture. Identification of factors associated with imminent risk for vertebral/nonvertebral fracture may help identify and risk stratify those patients most in need of immediate and appropriate treatment to decrease fracture risk.

SUBMITTER: Bonafede M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4967418 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting imminent risk for fracture in patients aged 50 or older with osteoporosis using US claims data.

Bonafede M M Shi N N Barron R R Li X X Crittenden D B DB Chandler D D

Archives of osteoporosis 20160730 1

<h4>Unlabelled</h4>Patient characteristics contributing to imminent risk for fracture, defined as risk of near-term fracture within the next 12 to 24 months, have not been well defined. In patients without recent fracture, we identified factors predicting imminent risk for vertebral/nonvertebral fracture, including falls, age, comorbidities, and other potential fall risk factors.<h4>Purpose</h4>Several factors contribute to long-term fracture risk in patients with osteoporosis, including age, bo ...[more]

PMID: 27475642

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Project description:In elderly women with osteoporosis, prior fracture, low BMD, impaired physical functioning, poorer general health, and recent falls were all direct predictors of imminent (in next year) fracture risk. Prior fracture, older age, worse health, impaired cognitive functioning, and recent falls indirectly increased imminent risk by reducing physical functioning/general health. INTRODUCTION:This study was designed to examine determinants of imminent risk of osteoporotic fracture (i.e., next 1-2 years) in postmenopausal women. METHODS:This retrospective cohort study used data from Caucasian women age 65 or older with osteoporosis who participated in the observational Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). We examined potential direct and indirect predictors of hip and nonvertebral fractures in 1-year follow-up intervals including anthropometric measures, bone mineral density (T-score), fracture since age 50, physical function, cognition, medical conditions, recent (past year) falls, and lifestyle factors. Clinically related variables were grouped into constructs via factor analysis. These constructs and selected individual variables were incorporated into a theoretical structural equation model to evaluate factors that influence imminent risk. RESULTS:Among 2261 patients, 19.4% had a nonvertebral fracture and 5.5% had a hip fracture within 1 year of a study visit between 1992 and 2008. Prior fracture, lower T-scores, lower physical functioning, and recent falls all directly increased 1-year risk of nonvertebral fracture. For both nonvertebral and hip fractures, prior fracture and recent falls influenced risk indirectly through general health, while cognition influenced risk via physical functioning. Age influenced both physical functioning and general health. CONCLUSIONS:Several established risk factors for 10-year fracture risk also played a role in predicting imminent risk of fracture (e.g., T-scores, prior fracture), as did falls, cognition, physical functioning, and general health. Fracture risk assessments should also consider falls and fall risk factors as well as established bone-related risk factors in assessing imminent fracture risk.

Project description:This study examined the imminent risk of a future fracture within 1 and 2 years following a first fracture in women aged 50 years and older and assessed independent factors associated with risk of subsequent fractures. The study highlights the need to intervene rapidly after a fracture to prevent further fractures. INTRODUCTION:This study aims to determine the imminent risk of subsequent fractures within 1 and 2 years following a first fracture and to assess independent factors associated with subsequent fractures. METHODS:Retrospective, observational cohort study of women aged ≥ 50 years with a fragility fracture was identified from Swedish national registers. Clinical/demographic characteristics at the time of index fracture and cumulative fracture incidences up to 12 and 24 months following index fracture were calculated. Risk factors for subsequent fracture were identified using multivariate regression analysis. RESULTS:Two hundred forty-two thousand one hundred eight women (mean [SD] age 74 [12.5] years) were included. The cumulative subsequent fracture incidence at 12 months was 7.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.9-7.2) and at 24 months was 12.0% (95% CI, 11.8-12.1). The rate of subsequent fractures was highest in the first month (~ 15 fractures per 1000 patient-years) and remained steady between 4 and 24 months (~ 5 fractures/1000 patient-years). Higher age was an independent risk factor for imminent subsequent fractures (at 24 months, sub-distribution hazard ratio [HR], 3.07; p < 0.001 for women 80-89 years [reference 50-59 years]). Index vertebral fracture was a strong independent risk factor for subsequent fracture (sub-distribution HR, 2.72 versus hip fracture; p < 0.001 over 12 months; HR, 2.23; p < 0.001 over 24 months). CONCLUSIONS:Our findings highlight the need to intervene rapidly after any fragility fracture in postmenopausal women. The occurrence of a fragility fracture provides healthcare systems with a unique opportunity to intervene to reduce the increased risk of subsequent fractures.

Project description:Reduced kidney function is associated with an increased fracture risk, although the relationship between an age-related decline and fractures needs further investigation. We followed kidney function and fracture risk for 10 years. A mild-moderate decline in kidney function was associated with fracture, but not in advanced age. INTRODUCTION:With age, kidney function declines. Though well known that chronic kidney disease is associated with increased fracture risk, the extent to which the typical age-related decline contributes is unclear. In the OPRA cohort, a longitudinal study of older non-selected women, we investigated the association between kidney function and fracture. METHODS:Cystatin C-based kidney function estimates were available at age 75 (n?=?981) and 80 (n?=?685). Women were categorized by kidney function: normal (CKD stages 1 and 2), mild-moderate (3a), poor (3b-5), and imminent, short- and long-term fracture risk investigated. BMD measurements and kidney function for risk prediction were also evaluated; women were categorized by both reduced kidney function (stages 3-5) and osteoporosis status. RESULTS:In the short term, 2-3 years, mild-moderate kidney dysfunction was associated with the highest risk increase: osteoporotic fractures (2 years HRadj 2.21, 95% CI 1.27-3.87) and also up to 5 years (between 75 and 80 years) (HRadj 1.51, 1.04-2.18). Hip fracture risk was similarly increased. This association was not observed from age 80 nor for women with poorest kidney function. Reduced kidney function was associated with higher risk even without osteoporosis (osteoporotic fracture; HRadj 1.66, 1.08-2.54); risk increased by having both osteoporosis and reduced function (HRadj 2.53, 1.52-4.23). CONCLUSION:Older women with mild-moderate reduction of kidney function are at increased risk of fractures, but not those with the worst function. Our findings furthermore confirm the value of osteoporosis assessment and it is possible that in this age group, age-related decline of kidney function has limited contribution compared with BMD.

Dataset Information

Predicting imminent risk for fracture in patients aged 50 or older with osteoporosis using US claims data.

Unlabelled

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicting imminent risk for fracture in patients aged 50 or older with osteoporosis using US claims data.

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