Dataset Information

Predicting imminent risk for fracture in patients aged 50 or older with osteoporosis using US claims data.

ABSTRACT:

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Patient characteristics contributing to imminent risk for fracture, defined as risk of near-term fracture within the next 12 to 24 months, have not been well defined. In patients without recent fracture, we identified factors predicting imminent risk for vertebral/nonvertebral fracture, including falls, age, comorbidities, and other potential fall risk factors.

Purpose

Several factors contribute to long-term fracture risk in patients with osteoporosis, including age, bone mineral density, and fracture history. Some patients may be at imminent risk for fracture, defined here as a risk of near-term fracture within 12-24 months. Many patient characteristics contributing to imminent risk for fracture have not been well defined. This case-control study used US commercial and Medicare supplemental insured data for women and men without recent fracture to identify factors associated with imminent risk for fracture.

Methods

Patients included were aged ?50 with osteoporosis, had a vertebral or nonvertebral fracture claim (index date; fracture group) or no fracture claim (control group) from January 1, 2006, to September 30, 2012, continuously enrolled and without fracture in the 24 months before index. Potential risk factors during the period before fracture were assessed.

Results

Using data from 12 months before fracture, factors significantly associated with imminent risk for fracture were previous falls, older age, poorer health status, specific comorbidities (psychosis, Alzheimer's disease, central nervous system disease), and other fall risk factors (wheelchair use, psychoactive medication use, mobility impairment). Similar findings were observed with data from 24 months before fracture.

Conclusions

In patients with osteoporosis and no recent fracture, falls, older age, poorer health status, comorbidities, and other potential fall risk factors were predictive of imminent risk for fracture. Identification of factors associated with imminent risk for vertebral/nonvertebral fracture may help identify and risk stratify those patients most in need of immediate and appropriate treatment to decrease fracture risk.

SUBMITTER: Bonafede M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4967418 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting imminent risk for fracture in patients aged 50 or older with osteoporosis using US claims data.

Bonafede M M Shi N N Barron R R Li X X Crittenden D B DB Chandler D D

Archives of osteoporosis 20160730 1

<h4>Unlabelled</h4>Patient characteristics contributing to imminent risk for fracture, defined as risk of near-term fracture within the next 12 to 24 months, have not been well defined. In patients without recent fracture, we identified factors predicting imminent risk for vertebral/nonvertebral fracture, including falls, age, comorbidities, and other potential fall risk factors.<h4>Purpose</h4>Several factors contribute to long-term fracture risk in patients with osteoporosis, including age, bo ...[more]

PMID: 27475642

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Project description:In elderly women with osteoporosis, prior fracture, low BMD, impaired physical functioning, poorer general health, and recent falls were all direct predictors of imminent (in next year) fracture risk. Prior fracture, older age, worse health, impaired cognitive functioning, and recent falls indirectly increased imminent risk by reducing physical functioning/general health. INTRODUCTION:This study was designed to examine determinants of imminent risk of osteoporotic fracture (i.e., next 1-2 years) in postmenopausal women. METHODS:This retrospective cohort study used data from Caucasian women age 65 or older with osteoporosis who participated in the observational Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). We examined potential direct and indirect predictors of hip and nonvertebral fractures in 1-year follow-up intervals including anthropometric measures, bone mineral density (T-score), fracture since age 50, physical function, cognition, medical conditions, recent (past year) falls, and lifestyle factors. Clinically related variables were grouped into constructs via factor analysis. These constructs and selected individual variables were incorporated into a theoretical structural equation model to evaluate factors that influence imminent risk. RESULTS:Among 2261 patients, 19.4% had a nonvertebral fracture and 5.5% had a hip fracture within 1 year of a study visit between 1992 and 2008. Prior fracture, lower T-scores, lower physical functioning, and recent falls all directly increased 1-year risk of nonvertebral fracture. For both nonvertebral and hip fractures, prior fracture and recent falls influenced risk indirectly through general health, while cognition influenced risk via physical functioning. Age influenced both physical functioning and general health. CONCLUSIONS:Several established risk factors for 10-year fracture risk also played a role in predicting imminent risk of fracture (e.g., T-scores, prior fracture), as did falls, cognition, physical functioning, and general health. Fracture risk assessments should also consider falls and fall risk factors as well as established bone-related risk factors in assessing imminent fracture risk.

Project description:This study examined the imminent risk of a future fracture within 1 and 2 years following a first fracture in women aged 50 years and older and assessed independent factors associated with risk of subsequent fractures. The study highlights the need to intervene rapidly after a fracture to prevent further fractures. INTRODUCTION:This study aims to determine the imminent risk of subsequent fractures within 1 and 2 years following a first fracture and to assess independent factors associated with subsequent fractures. METHODS:Retrospective, observational cohort study of women aged ≥ 50 years with a fragility fracture was identified from Swedish national registers. Clinical/demographic characteristics at the time of index fracture and cumulative fracture incidences up to 12 and 24 months following index fracture were calculated. Risk factors for subsequent fracture were identified using multivariate regression analysis. RESULTS:Two hundred forty-two thousand one hundred eight women (mean [SD] age 74 [12.5] years) were included. The cumulative subsequent fracture incidence at 12 months was 7.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.9-7.2) and at 24 months was 12.0% (95% CI, 11.8-12.1). The rate of subsequent fractures was highest in the first month (~ 15 fractures per 1000 patient-years) and remained steady between 4 and 24 months (~ 5 fractures/1000 patient-years). Higher age was an independent risk factor for imminent subsequent fractures (at 24 months, sub-distribution hazard ratio [HR], 3.07; p < 0.001 for women 80-89 years [reference 50-59 years]). Index vertebral fracture was a strong independent risk factor for subsequent fracture (sub-distribution HR, 2.72 versus hip fracture; p < 0.001 over 12 months; HR, 2.23; p < 0.001 over 24 months). CONCLUSIONS:Our findings highlight the need to intervene rapidly after any fragility fracture in postmenopausal women. The occurrence of a fragility fracture provides healthcare systems with a unique opportunity to intervene to reduce the increased risk of subsequent fractures.

Project description:Reduced kidney function is associated with an increased fracture risk, although the relationship between an age-related decline and fractures needs further investigation. We followed kidney function and fracture risk for 10 years. A mild-moderate decline in kidney function was associated with fracture, but not in advanced age. INTRODUCTION:With age, kidney function declines. Though well known that chronic kidney disease is associated with increased fracture risk, the extent to which the typical age-related decline contributes is unclear. In the OPRA cohort, a longitudinal study of older non-selected women, we investigated the association between kidney function and fracture. METHODS:Cystatin C-based kidney function estimates were available at age 75 (n?=?981) and 80 (n?=?685). Women were categorized by kidney function: normal (CKD stages 1 and 2), mild-moderate (3a), poor (3b-5), and imminent, short- and long-term fracture risk investigated. BMD measurements and kidney function for risk prediction were also evaluated; women were categorized by both reduced kidney function (stages 3-5) and osteoporosis status. RESULTS:In the short term, 2-3 years, mild-moderate kidney dysfunction was associated with the highest risk increase: osteoporotic fractures (2 years HRadj 2.21, 95% CI 1.27-3.87) and also up to 5 years (between 75 and 80 years) (HRadj 1.51, 1.04-2.18). Hip fracture risk was similarly increased. This association was not observed from age 80 nor for women with poorest kidney function. Reduced kidney function was associated with higher risk even without osteoporosis (osteoporotic fracture; HRadj 1.66, 1.08-2.54); risk increased by having both osteoporosis and reduced function (HRadj 2.53, 1.52-4.23). CONCLUSION:Older women with mild-moderate reduction of kidney function are at increased risk of fractures, but not those with the worst function. Our findings furthermore confirm the value of osteoporosis assessment and it is possible that in this age group, age-related decline of kidney function has limited contribution compared with BMD.

Project description:Advancing age, female sex, recent prior fracture and falls, and specific comorbidities and medications contribute to imminent (within 1-2 years) risk of fracture in Medicare enrollees. Clinician awareness of these risk factors and their dynamic nature may lead to improved osteoporosis care for elderly patients.PurposeThe burden of osteoporotic fracture disproportionately affects the elderly. Growing awareness that fracture risk can change substantially over time underscores the need to understand risk factors for imminent (within 1-2 years) fracture. This study assessed predictors of imminent risk of fracture in the US Medicare population.MethodsAdministrative claims data from a random sample of Medicare beneficiaries were analyzed for patients aged ≥ 67 years on January 1, 2011 (index date), with continuous coverage between January 1, 2009 and March 31, 2011, excluding patients with non-melanoma cancer or Paget's disease. Incident osteoporotic fractures were identified during 12 and 24 months post-index. Potential predictors were age, sex, race, history of fracture, history of falls, presence of osteoporosis, cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD), mood/anxiety disorders, polyinflammatory conditions, difficulty walking, use of durable medical equipment, ambulance/life support, and pre-index use of osteoporosis medications, steroids, or central nervous system medications. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate predictors of fracture risk in the two follow-up intervals.ResultsAmong 1,780,451 individuals included (mean age 77.7 years, 66% female), 8.3% had prior fracture and 6.1% had a history of falls. During the 12- and 24-month follow-up periods, 3.0% and 5.4% of patients had an incident osteoporotic fracture, respectively. Imminent risk of fracture increased with older age (double/triple), female sex (> 80%), recent prior fracture (> double) and falls, and specific comorbidities and medications.ConclusionsDemographics and factors including fall/fracture history, comorbidities, and medications contribute to imminent risk of fracture in elderly patients.

Project description:Importance:Fracture risk scores are used to identify individuals at high risk of major osteoporotic fracture or hip fracture for antiosteoporosis treatment. For those not meeting treatment thresholds at baseline, the optimal interval for reassessing fracture risk is uncertain. Objective:To examine reassessment intervals for transition from low to high fracture risk under guidelines-defined treatment thresholds. Design, Setting, and Participants:This retrospective cohort study included persons aged 50 years or older with fracture risk below treatment thresholds at baseline who had fracture risk reassessed at least 1 year later. Data were obtained from a population-based bone mineral density registry (baseline assessment during 1996-2015; reassessment to 2016) in the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Primary analysis was performed from May to June 2019. Analysis for the revision was performed in October 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures:The primary outcome was time to transition from low (below the treatment threshold) to high fracture risk (treatment-qualifying risk score using osteoporosis clinical practice guidelines strategies for Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom). Results:The study population consisted of 10?564 individuals (94.1% women; mean [SD] age at baseline, 63.2 [8.2] years). At the time of reassessment (a mean [SD] interval of 5.2 [2.9] years between initial and subsequent fracture risk assessment), 690 (6.6%) had reached the fixed major osteoporotic fracture treatment threshold of 20%, 1546 (16.2%) had reached the fixed hip treatment threshold of 3%, and 932 (9.4%) had reached the age-dependent major osteoporotic fracture treatment threshold. Among those below 25% of the treatment threshold at baseline for each guideline, few (0%-3.0%) reached guidelines-defined high fracture risk at follow-up. In contrast, among those at the upper end of the scale for each guideline (75%-99% of the treatment threshold at baseline), 30.6% to 74.4% reached guidelines-defined high fracture risk. An increased number of clinical risk factors was associated with increased likelihood of reaching guidelines-defined high fracture risk (range for 3 guidelines, 17.1%-28.2%) compared with unchanged or decreased clinical risk factors (range for 3 guidelines, 3.3%-12.8%) (P?<?.001). Estimated time for 10% of the population to reach treatment-qualifying high fracture risk ranged from fewer than 3 years to more than 15 years. Conclusions and Relevance:The findings suggest that baseline fracture risk (as a fraction of the treatment threshold) and change in clinical risk factors can identify individuals with low and high probability of guidelines-defined high fracture risk during follow-up, thereby potentially helping to inform the reassessment interval.

Dataset Information

Predicting imminent risk for fracture in patients aged 50 or older with osteoporosis using US claims data.

Unlabelled

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicting imminent risk for fracture in patients aged 50 or older with osteoporosis using US claims data.

Similar Datasets

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