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A competing risk analysis for hospital length of stay in patients with burns.

ABSTRACT: Current outcome predictors for illness and injury are measured at a single time point-admission. However, patient prognosis often changes during hospitalization, limiting the usefulness of those predictions. Accurate depiction of the dynamic interaction between competing events during hospitalization may enable real-time outcome assessment.To determine how the effects of burn outcome predictors (ie, age, total body surface area burn, and inhalation injury) and the outcomes of interest (ie, mortality and length of stay) vary as a function of time throughout hospitalization.In this retrospective study, we used the American Burn Association's National Burn Repository, containing outcomes and patient and injury characteristics, to identify 95?579 patients admitted with an acute burn injury to 80 tertiary American Burn Association burn centers from 2000 through 2009. We applied competing risk statistical methods to analyze patient outcomes.We estimated the cause-specific hazard rates for death and discharge to assess how the instantaneous risk of these events changed across time. We further evaluated the varying effects of patient age, total body surface area burn, and inhalation injury on the probability of discharge and death across time.Maximum length of stay among patients who died was 270 days and 731 days among those discharged. Total body surface area, age, and inhalation injury had significant effects on the subdistribution hazard for discharge (P?

SUBMITTER: Taylor SL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4968081 | biostudies-literature | 2015 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A competing risk analysis for hospital length of stay in patients with burns.

Taylor Sandra L SL Sen Soman S Greenhalgh David G DG Lawless MaryBeth M Curri Terese T Palmieri Tina L TL

JAMA surgery 20150501 5

<h4>Importance</h4>Current outcome predictors for illness and injury are measured at a single time point-admission. However, patient prognosis often changes during hospitalization, limiting the usefulness of those predictions. Accurate depiction of the dynamic interaction between competing events during hospitalization may enable real-time outcome assessment.<h4>Objective</h4>To determine how the effects of burn outcome predictors (ie, age, total body surface area burn, and inhalation injury) an ...[more]

PMID: 25761045

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Project description:BackgroundBurns resulting from assaults account for considerable morbidity and mortality among patients with burn injuries around the world. However, it is still unclear whether unfavorable clinical outcomes are associated primarily with the severity of the injuries. To elucidate the direct relationship between burns resulting from assaults and mortality and/or length of hospital stays, we performed this study with the hypothesis that burns from assault would be independently associated with fewer hospital-free days than would burns from other causes, regardless of the severity of burn injuries.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study, using a city-wide burn registry (1996-2017) accounting for 14 burn centers in Tokyo, Japan. Patients who arrived within 24 hours after injury were included, and those with self-inflicted burn injuries were excluded. Patients were divided into two groups according to mechanism of burns (assault vs. accident), and the number of hospital-free days until day 30 after injury (a composite of in-hospital death and hospital length of stay) was compared between the groups. To estimate the probability that an injury would be classified as an assault, we calculated propensity scores, using multivariate logistic regression analyses adjusted for known outcome predictors. We also performed an inverse probability weighting (IPW) analysis to compare adjusted numbers of hospital-free days.ResultsOf 7419 patients in the registry with burn injuries during the study period, 5119 patients were included in this study. Of these, 113 (2.2%) were injured as a result of assault; they had significantly fewer hospital-free days than did those with burns caused by accident (18 [27] vs. 24 [20] days; coefficient = [Formula: see text]3.4 [[Formula: see text]5.5 to [Formula: see text]1.3] days; p?=?0.001). IPW analyses similarly revealed the independent association between assault burn injury and fewer hospital-free days (adjusted coefficient = [Formula: see text]0.6 [[Formula: see text]1.0 to [Formula: see text]0.1] days; p?=?0.009).ConclusionsBurn from assault was independently associated with fewer hospital-free days, regardless of the severity of burn injuries. The pathophysiological mechanism underlying the relationship should be further studied in a prospective observational study.

Project description:IntroductionLength of hospital stay (LOS), defined as the time from inpatient admission to discharge, death, referral, or abscondment, is one of the key indicators of quality in patient care. Reduced LOS lowers health care expenditure and minimizes the chance of in-hospital acquired infections. Conventional methods for estimating LOS such as the Kaplan-Meier survival curve and the Cox proportional hazards regression for time to discharge cannot account for competing risks such as death, referral, and abscondment. This study applied competing risk methods to investigate factors important for risk-stratifying patients based on LOS in order to enhance patient care.MethodsThis study analyzed data from ongoing safety surveillance of the malaria vaccine implementation program in Malawi's four district hospitals of Balaka, Machinga, Mchinji, and Ntchisi. Children aged 1-59 months who were hospitalized (spending at least one night in hospital) with a medical illness were consecutively enrolled between 1 November 2019 and 31 July 2021. Sub-distribution-hazard (SDH) ratios for the cumulative incidence of discharge were estimated using the Fine-Gray competing risk model.ResultsAmong the 15,463 children hospitalized, 8,607 (55.7%) were male and 6,856 (44.3%) were female. The median age was 22 months [interquartile range (IQR): 12-33 months]. The cumulative incidence of discharge was 40% lower among HIV-positive children compared to HIV-negative (sub-distribution-hazard ratio [SDHR]: 0.60; [95% CI: 0.46-0.76]; P < 0.001); lower among children with severe and cerebral malaria [SDHR: 0.94; (95% CI: 0.86-0.97); P = 0.04], sepsis or septicemia [SDHR: 0.90; (95% CI: 0.82-0.98); P = 0.027], severe anemia related to malaria [SDHR: 0.54; (95% CI: 0.48-0.61); P < 0.001], and meningitis [SDHR: 0.18; (95% CI: 0.09-0.37); P < 0.001] when compared to non-severe malaria; and also 39% lower among malnourished children compared to those that were well-nourished [SDHR: 0.61; (95% CI: 0.55-0.68); P < 0.001].ConclusionsThis study applied the Fine-Gray competing risk approach to more accurately model LOS as the time to discharge when there were significant rates of in-hospital mortality, referrals, and abscondment. Patient care can be enhanced by risk-stratifying by LOS based on children's age, HIV status, diagnosis, and nutritional status.

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A competing risk analysis for hospital length of stay in patients with burns.

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A competing risk analysis for hospital length of stay in patients with burns.

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