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Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal.

ABSTRACT: Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark-release-recapture method for 12 years. Dispersal was quantified for each monitoring year using three complementary measures: emigration rate (fraction of individuals moving between habitat patches), average residence time in the natal patch, and average distance moved. There was much variation both in dispersal and average weather conditions among the years. Weather variables significantly affected the three measures of dispersal and together with adjusting variables explained 79-91% of the variation observed in dispersal. Different weather variables became selected in the models explaining variation in three dispersal measures apparently because of the notable intercorrelations. In general, dispersal rate increased with increasing temperature, solar radiation, proportion of especially warm days, and butterfly density, and decreased with increasing cloudiness, rainfall, and wind speed. These results help to understand and model annually varying dispersal dynamics of species affected by global warming.

SUBMITTER: Kuussaari M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4971196 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal.

Kuussaari Mikko M Rytteri Susu S Heikkinen Risto K RK Heliölä Janne J von Bagh Peter P

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20160701 1835

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark-release-recapture method for 12 ...[more]

PMID: 27440662

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Project description:Climate change has caused widespread shifts in species' phenology, but the consequences for population and community dynamics remain unclear because of uncertainty regarding the species-specific drivers of phenology and abundance, and the implications for synchrony among interacting species. Here, we develop a statistical model to quantify inter-annual variation in phenology and abundance over an environmental gradient, and use it to identify potential drivers of phenology and abundance in co-occurring species. We fit the model to counts of 10 butterfly species with single annual generations over a mountain elevation gradient, as an exemplar system in which temporally limited availability of biotic resources and favorable abiotic conditions impose narrow windows of seasonal activity. We estimate parameters describing changes in abundance, and the peak time and duration of the flight period, over ten years (2004-2013) and across twenty sample locations (930-2,050 m) in central Spain. We also use the model outputs to investigate relationships of phenology and abundance with temperature and rainfall. Annual shifts in phenology were remarkably consistent among species, typically showing earlier flight periods during years with warm conditions in March or May-June. In contrast, inter-annual variation in relative abundance was more variable among species, and generally less well associated with climatic conditions. Nevertheless, warmer temperatures in June were associated with increased relative population growth in three species, and five species had increased relative population growth in years with earlier flight periods. These results suggest that broadly coherent interspecific changes to phenology could help to maintain temporal synchrony in community dynamics under climate change, but that the relative composition of communities may vary due to interspecific inconsistency in population dynamic responses to climate change. However, it may still be possible to predict abundance change for species based on a robust understanding of relationships between their population dynamics and phenology, and the environmental drivers of both.

Project description:BackgroundMetapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes is assured by dispersal of individuals between local populations. In this scenario the landscape topography, although usually neglected, may have an important role in shaping dispersal throughout the matrix separating habitat patches. Due to inter-sexual differences in optimal reproductive strategies, i.e., males maximizing the number of mating opportunities and females maximizing the offspring survival chances, topography-related constraints are expected to exert a different effect on male and female dispersal behaviour. We tested sex-biased topography effects on butterfly dispersal, with the following hypotheses: (1) females are constrained by topography in their movements and avoid hill crossing; (2) male dispersal is primarily driven by two-dimensional spatial structure of the habitat patches (i.e. their geometric locations and sizes) and little influenced by topography.MethodsFollowing intensive mark-recapture surveys of Maculinea (= Phengaris) nausithous and M. teleius within a landscape characterised by an alternation of hills and valleys, we investigated sex-specific patterns in their inter-patch movement probabilities derived with a multi-state recapture model. In particular, we (1) analysed the fit of dispersal kernels based on Euclidean (= straight line) vs. topography-based (= through valley) distances; (2) compared movement probabilities for the pairs of patches separated or not by topographic barriers; and (3) tested the differences in the downward and upward movement probabilities within the pairs of patches.ResultsEuclidean distances between patches proved to be a substantially stronger predictor of inter-patch movement probabilities in males, while inter-patch distances measured along valleys performed much better for females, indicating that the latter tend to predominantly follow valleys when dispersing. In addition, there were significantly lower probabilities of movements across hills in females, but not in males.ConclusionsBoth above results provide support for the hypothesis that topography restricts dispersal in females, but not in males. Since the two sexes contribute differently to metapopulation functioning, i.e., only female dispersal can result in successful (re)colonisations of vacant patches, the topography effects exerted on females should be considered with particular attention when landscape management and conservation actions are designed in order to maintain the functional connectivity of metapopulation systems.

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Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal.

Publications

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal.

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