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Individualized Risk Estimation for Postoperative Complications After Surgery for Oral Cavity Cancer.

ABSTRACT: Postoperative complications after head and neck surgery carry the potential for significant morbidity. Estimating the risk of complications in an individual patient is challenging.To develop a statistical tool capable of predicting an individual patient's risk of developing a major complication after surgery for oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma.Retrospective case series derived from an institutional clinical oncologic database, augmented by medical record abstraction, at an academic tertiary care cancer center. Participants were 506 previously untreated adult patients with biopsy-proven oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma who underwent surgery between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2012.The primary end point was a major postoperative complication requiring invasive intervention (Clavien-Dindo classification grades III-V). Patients treated between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2008 (354 of 506 [70.0%]) comprised the modeling cohort and were used to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of developing the primary end point. Univariable analysis and correlation analysis were used to prescreen 36 potential predictors for incorporation in the subsequent multivariable logistic regression analysis. The variables with the highest predictive value were identified with the step-down model reduction method and included in the nomogram. Patients treated between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2008 (152 of 506 [30.0%]) were used to validate the nomogram.Clinical characteristics were similar between the 2 cohorts for most comparisons. Thirty-six patients in the modeling cohort (10.2%) and 16 patients in the validation cohort (10.5%) developed a major postoperative complication. The 6 preoperative variables with the highest individual predictive value were incorporated within the nomogram, including body mass index, comorbidity status, preoperative white blood cell count, preoperative hematocrit, planned neck dissection, and planned tracheotomy. The nomogram predicted a major complication with a validated concordance index of 0.79. Inclusion of surgical operative variables in the nomogram maintained predictive accuracy (concordance index, 0.77).A statistical tool was developed that accurately estimates an individual patient's risk of developing a major complication after surgery for oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma.

SUBMITTER: Awad MI

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4976497 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Individualized Risk Estimation for Postoperative Complications After Surgery for Oral Cavity Cancer.

Awad Mahmoud I MI Palmer Frank L FL Kou Lei L Yu Changhong C Montero Pablo H PH Shuman Andrew G AG Ganly Ian I Shah Jatin P JP Kattan Michael W MW Patel Snehal G SG

JAMA otolaryngology-- head & neck surgery 20151101 11

<h4>Importance</h4>Postoperative complications after head and neck surgery carry the potential for significant morbidity. Estimating the risk of complications in an individual patient is challenging.<h4>Objective</h4>To develop a statistical tool capable of predicting an individual patient's risk of developing a major complication after surgery for oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>Retrospective case series derived from an institutional clinical oncolo ...[more]

PMID: 26469394

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Project description:ImportanceBecause locally advanced oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) is often treated with surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy (S+PORT), the effectiveness of organ preservation with concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) remains unclear.ObjectiveTo compare the differences in survival between patients with locally advanced OCSCC treated with S+PORT or CRT.Design, setting, and participantsUsing the National Cancer Database, this study compared 6900 patients with stage III to IVA OCSCC treated with S+PORT and CRT from 2004 through 2012 at academic and community-based cancer clinics. Comparisons were made using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards regression models using the entire cohort and a propensity score-matched cohort of 2286 patients.Main outcomes and measuresOverall survival (OS).ResultsOf the 6900 study patients, 4809 received S+PORT (3080 male [64.0%] and 1792 [36.0%] female) and 2091 received CRT (1453 male [69.5%] and 638 [30.5%] female). Median follow-up for the entire group was 23.0 months overall but was shorter for patients receiving CRT (17.3-month) vs S+PORT (25.6 months). Patients receiving CRT were more likely to be older than 60 years, treated before 2007, live within 10 miles of the treating facility, treated at nonacademic centers, have more comorbidities, have T3 to T4a tumors, and have N2a to N2c nodal disease. Propensity score matching identified cohorts of patients with similar clinical variables. S+PORT was associated with improved survival among all patients (3-year OS: 53.9% for S+PORT vs 37.8% for CRT; difference = 16.1%; 95% CI, 13.6%-18.6%) and in the propensity score-matched cohort (3-year OS: 51.8% for S+PORT vs 39.3% for CRT; difference = 11.9%; 95% CI, 7.8%-16.0%). S+PORT was associated with improved survival among patients with T3 to T4a tumors (3-year OS: 49.7% for S+PORT vs 36.0% for CRT; difference = 16.1%; 95% CI, 13.6%-18.6%) but was not associated with improved survival among patients with T1 to T2 tumors (3-year OS: 59.1% for S+PORT vs 53.5% for CRT; difference = 5.6%; 95% CI, -3.1% to 14.3%).Conclusions and relevanceCompared with CRT, S+PORT was associated with improved survival for locally advanced OCSCCs, especially in T3 to T4a disease. These data support the use of surgery as the initial treatment modality for operable OCSCCs.

Project description:ImportanceLocoregional recurrence of oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) continues to be a life-threatening and difficult clinical situation. Salvage surgery can result in significant morbidities, and survival following recurrence is poor.ObjectiveTo outline prognostic factors influencing overall survival (OS) following salvage surgery for OCSCC to guide management of treatment for patients with locoregionally recurrent disease.Design, setting, and participantsThe medical records of 293 patients presenting to the London Health Sciences Center with locoregionally recurrent OCSCC between October 5, 1999, and May 2, 2011, were retrospectively reviewed. The primary outcome was OS from salvage treatment to last follow-up or death. Univariate analyses were carried out using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. A recursive partitioning analysis was used to create risk groups based on prognosis. Analysis was conducted from December 8, 2015, to February 26, 2016.ResultsOf the 293 patients evaluated, 59 (20%) had recurrence identified after their initial OCSCC treatment; 39 (66%) were men, and the mean (SD) age at diagnosis was 62.2 (11.8) years. Thirty-nine (66%) of these patients underwent salvage surgery for locoregional recurrence with curative intent. Five-year OS from the time of salvage surgery was 43%. Recursive partitioning analysis identified 3 risk groups: (1) high risk (patients who received adjuvant chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy after initial surgery) with 5-year OS rate of 10% (hazard ratio [HR], 9.41; 95% CI, 2.68-33.04), (2) intermediate risk (previous surgery alone, age ?62 years) with a 5-year OS rate of 39% (HR, 2.95; 95% CI, 0.86-10.09), and (3) low risk (previous surgery alone, age <62 years) with 5-year OS rate of 74%.Conclusions and relevanceThis recursive partitioning analysis identified 3 prognostic groups in patients undergoing salvage surgery for recurrent OCSCC. The marked differences in survival between these groups should be taken into consideration when counselling and managing treatment for patients with locoregionally recurrent disease.

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Individualized Risk Estimation for Postoperative Complications After Surgery for Oral Cavity Cancer.

Publications

Individualized Risk Estimation for Postoperative Complications After Surgery for Oral Cavity Cancer.

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