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Worldwide impact of aerosol's time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential.

ABSTRACT: Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term DNI resource is affected by using AOD data averaged over periods from 1 to 30 days. It is demonstrated here that the use of monthly representations of AOD leads to systematic underestimations of the predicted long-term DNI up to 10% in some areas with high solar resource, which may result in detrimental consequences for the bankability of concentrating solar power projects. Recommendations for the use of either daily or monthly AOD data are provided on a geographical basis.

SUBMITTER: Ruiz-Arias JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4979049 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Worldwide impact of aerosol's time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential.

Ruiz-Arias Jose A JA Gueymard Christian A CA Santos-Alamillos Francisco J FJ Pozo-Vázquez David D

Scientific reports 20160810

Concentrating solar technologies, which are fuelled by the direct normal component of solar irradiance (DNI), are among the most promising solar technologies. Currently, the state-of the-art methods for DNI evaluation use datasets of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with only coarse (typically monthly) temporal resolution. Using daily AOD data from both site-specific observations at ground stations as well as gridded model estimates, a methodology is developed to evaluate how the calculated long-term ...[more]

PMID: 27507711

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Project description:BACKGROUND:This paper examines the cost and benefits, both financial and environmental, of two leading forms of solar power generation, grid-tied photovoltaic cells and Dish Stirling Systems, using conventional carbon-based fuel as a benchmark. METHODS:First we define how these solar technologies will be implemented and why. Then we delineate a model city and its characteristics, which will be used to test the two methods of solar-powered electric distribution. Then we set the constraining assumptions for each technology, which serve as parameters for our calculations. Finally, we calculate the present value of the total cost of conventional energy needed to power our model city and use this as a benchmark when analyzing both solar models' benefits and costs. RESULTS:The preeminent form of distributed electricity generation, grid-tied photovoltaic cells under net-metering, allow individual homeowners a degree of electric self-sufficiency while often turning a profit. However, substantial subsidies are required to make the investment sensible. Meanwhile, large dish Stirling engine installations have a significantly higher potential rate of return, but face a number of pragmatic limitations. CONCLUSIONS:This paper concludes that both technologies are a sensible investment for consumers, but given that the dish Stirling consumer receives 6.37 dollars per watt while the home photovoltaic system consumer receives between 0.9 and 1.70 dollars per watt, the former appears to be a superior option. Despite the large investment, this paper deduces that it is far more feasible to get few strong investors to develop a solar farm of this magnitude, than to get 150,000 households to install photovoltaic arrays in their roofs. Potential implications of the solar farm construction include an environmental impact given the size of land require for this endeavour. However, the positive aspects, which include a large CO2 emission reduction aggregated over the lifespan of the farm, outweigh any minor concerns or potential externalities.

Project description:Background There are still limited data about the differential effect of sex on long-term outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) for left main coronary artery disease. This extended follow-up study of the MAIN-COMPARE (Ten-Year Outcomes of Stents Versus Coronary-Artery Bypass Grafting for Left Main Coronary Artery Disease) registry evaluated clinical outcomes beyond 10 years. Methods and Results Of 2240 patients with unprotected left main coronary artery disease (PCI=1102 and CABG=1138), all-cause mortality, the composite of death, Q-wave myocardial infarction, or stroke, and target vessel revascularization were separately evaluated in both sexes. Of 2240 patients, 631 (28.2%) were women and 1609 (71.8%) were men. Women had lower 10-year incidences of death and serious composite outcomes than men. The adjusted 10-year risks of adverse outcomes were similar in men. However, the adjusted 10-year risks were different according to a prespecified period in women. In the short-term (0-1 year) period, PCI had a significantly lower risk for serious composite outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.41; 95% CI, 0.19-0.91; P=0.03) compared with CABG. The adjusted risks for death and serious composite outcomes were significantly higher after PCI than after CABG, during the midterm (1-5 years) period (death; adjusted HR, 3.99; 95% CI, 2.01-7.92; P<0.001 and composite outcome; adjusted HR, 2.93; 95% CI, 1.59-5.39; P=0.001). Beyond 5 years, adjusted risks were similar after PCI and CABG in women. Conclusions In this 10-year extended follow-up study of patients undergoing left main coronary artery revascularization, we observed a time-dependent impact of sex on the long-term outcomes after PCI and CABG, especially in women, with significant interactions. However, these results warrant confirmation on larger series of studies. Registration URl: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02791412.

Dataset Information

Worldwide impact of aerosol's time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential.

Publications

Worldwide impact of aerosol's time scale on the predicted long-term concentrating solar power potential.

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