Dataset Information

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe.

ABSTRACT: Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

SUBMITTER: Heiri O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4979682 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe.

Heiri Oliver O Brooks Stephen J SJ Renssen Hans H Bedford Alan A Hazekamp Marjolein M Ilyashuk Boris B Jeffers Elizabeth S ES Lang Barbara B Kirilova Emiliya E Kuiper Saskia S Millet Laurent L Samartin Stéphanie S Toth Monika M Verbruggen Frederike F Watson Jenny E JE van Asch Nelleke N Lammertsma Emmy E Amon Leeli L Birks Hilary H HH Birks H John B HJ Mortensen Morten F MF Hoek Wim Z WZ Magyari Enikö E Muñoz Sobrino Castor C Seppä Heikki H Tinner Willy W Tonkov Spassimir S Veski Siim S Lotter André F AF

Nature communications 20140911

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during ...[more]

PMID: 25208610

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Project description:BackgroundGlobally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans.ObjectivesWe produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe.MethodsA process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios.ResultsOur primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results.ConclusionsOur quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.

Dataset Information

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe.

Publications

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe.

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