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New treatments for hepatitis C virus (HCV): scope for preventing liver disease and HCV transmission in England.

ABSTRACT: New direct-acting antivirals have the potential to transform the hepatitis C (HCV) treatment landscape, with rates of sustained viral response in excess of 90%. As these new agents are expensive, an important question is whether to focus on minimizing the consequences of severe liver disease, or reducing transmission via 'treatment as prevention'. A back-calculation model was used to estimate the impact of treatment of mild, moderate and compensated cirrhosis on incident cases of HCV-related end-stage liver disease/hepatocellular carcinoma (ESLD/HCC). In addition, a dynamic model was used to determine the impact on incidence and prevalence of chronic infection in people who inject drugs (PWID), the main risk group in England. Treating 3500 cirrhotics per year was predicted to reduce ESLD/HCC incidence from 1100 (95% CrI 970-1240) cases per year in 2015 to 630 (95% CrI 530-770) in 2020, around half that currently expected, although treating moderate-stage disease will also be needed to sustain this reduction. Treating mild-stage PWID was required to make a substantial impact on transmission: with 2500 treated per year, chronic prevalence/annual incidence in PWID was reduced from 34%/4.8% in 2015 to 11%/1.4% in 2030. There was little overlap between the two goals: treating mild stage had virtually no impact on ESLD/HCC within 15 years, but the long timescale of liver disease means relatively few PWID reach cirrhosis before cessation of injecting. Strategies focussing on treating advanced disease have the potential for dramatic reductions in severe morbidity, but virtually no preventative impact.

SUBMITTER: Harris RJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4982023 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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New treatments for hepatitis C virus (HCV): scope for preventing liver disease and HCV transmission in England.

Harris R J RJ Martin N K NK Rand E E Mandal S S Mutimer D D Vickerman P P Ramsay M E ME De Angelis D D Hickman M M Harris H E HE

Journal of viral hepatitis 20160329 8

New direct-acting antivirals have the potential to transform the hepatitis C (HCV) treatment landscape, with rates of sustained viral response in excess of 90%. As these new agents are expensive, an important question is whether to focus on minimizing the consequences of severe liver disease, or reducing transmission via 'treatment as prevention'. A back-calculation model was used to estimate the impact of treatment of mild, moderate and compensated cirrhosis on incident cases of HCV-related end ...[more]

PMID: 27025238

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Project description:BACKGROUND: No recognized risk factors can be identified in 10-40% of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients suggesting that the modes of transmission involved could be underestimated or unidentified. Invasive diagnostic procedures, such as endoscopy, have been considered as a potential HCV transmission route; although the actual extent of transmission in endoscopy procedures remains controversial. Most reported HCV outbreaks related to nosocomial acquisition have been attributed to unsafe injection practices and use of multi-dose vials. Only a few cases of likely patient-to-patient HCV transmission via a contaminated colonoscope have been reported to date. Nosocomial HCV infection may have important medical and legal implications and, therefore, possible transmission routes should be investigated. In this study, a case of nosocomial transmission of HCV from a common source to two patients who underwent colonoscopy in an endoscopy unit is reported. RESULTS: A retrospective epidemiological search after detection of index cases revealed several potentially infective procedures: sample blood collection, use of a peripheral catheter, anesthesia and colonoscopy procedures. The epidemiological investigation showed breaches in colonoscope reprocessing and deficiencies in the recording of valuable tracing data. Direct sequences from the NS5B region were obtained to determine the extent of the outbreak and cloned sequences from the E1-E2 region were used to establish the relationships among intrapatient viral populations. Phylogenetic analyses of individual sequences from viral populations infecting the three patients involved in the outbreak confirmed the patient pointed out by the epidemiological search as the source of the outbreak. Furthermore, the sequential order in which the patients underwent colonoscopy correlates with viral genetic variability estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Patient-to-patient transmission of HCV could be demonstrated although the precise route of transmission remained unclear. Viral genetic variability is proposed as a useful tool for tracing HCV transmission, especially in recent transmissions.

Project description:Acute cellular rejection (ACR) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) recurrence (HCVrec) are common complications after liver transplantation (LT) in HCV patients, who share common clinical and histological features, making a differential diagnosis difficult. Fifty-three liver allograft samples from unique HCV LT recipients were studied using microarrays, including a training set (n = 32) and a validation set (n = 19). Two no-HCV-ACR samples from LT recipients were also included. Probe set intensity values were obtained using the robust multiarray average method (RMA) method. Analysis of variance identified statistically differentially expressed genes (P ? 0.005). The limma package was used to fit the mixed-effects models using a restricted maximum likelihood procedure. The last absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model was fit with HCVrec versus ACR as the dependent variable predicted. N-fold cross-validation was performed to provide an unbiased estimate of generalization error. A total of 179 probe sets were differentially expressed among groups, with 71 exclusive genes between HCVrec and HCV-ACR. No differences were found within ACR group (HCV-ACR vs. no-HCV-ACR). Supervised clustering analysis displayed two clearly independent groups, and no-HCV-ACR clustered within HCV-ACR. HCVrec-related genes were associated with a cytotoxic T-cell profile, and HCV-ACR-related genes were associated with the inflammatory response. The best-fitting LASSO model classifier accuracy, including 15 genes, has an accuracy of 100% in the training set. N-fold cross-validation accuracy was 78.1%, and sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values were 50.0%, 90.9%, 71.4% and 80.0%, respectively. Arginase type II (ARG2), ethylmalonic encephalopathy 1 (ETHE1), transmembrane protein 176A (TMEM176A) and TMEM176B genes were significantly confirmed in the validation set. A molecular signature capable of distinguishing HCVrec and ACR in HCV LT recipients was identified and validated.

Dataset Information

New treatments for hepatitis C virus (HCV): scope for preventing liver disease and HCV transmission in England.

Publications

New treatments for hepatitis C virus (HCV): scope for preventing liver disease and HCV transmission in England.

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