Dataset Information

Troponin I and cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population: the BiomarCaRE consortium.

ABSTRACT:

Aims

Our aims were to evaluate the distribution of troponin I concentrations in population cohorts across Europe, to characterize the association with cardiovascular outcomes, to determine the predictive value beyond the variables used in the ESC SCORE, to test a potentially clinically relevant cut-off value, and to evaluate the improved eligibility for statin therapy based on elevated troponin I concentrations retrospectively.

Methods and results

Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project, we analysed individual level data from 10 prospective population-based studies including 74 738 participants. We investigated the value of adding troponin I levels to conventional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular disease by calculating measures of discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We further tested the clinical implication of statin therapy based on troponin concentration in 12 956 individuals free of cardiovascular disease in the JUPITER study. Troponin I remained an independent predictor with a hazard ratio of 1.37 for cardiovascular mortality, 1.23 for cardiovascular disease, and 1.24 for total mortality. The addition of troponin I information to a prognostic model for cardiovascular death constructed of ESC SCORE variables increased the C-index discrimination measure by 0.007 and yielded an NRI of 0.048, whereas the addition to prognostic models for cardiovascular disease and total mortality led to lesser C-index discrimination and NRI increment. In individuals above 6 ng/L of troponin I, a concentration near the upper quintile in BiomarCaRE (5.9 ng/L) and JUPITER (5.8 ng/L), rosuvastatin therapy resulted in higher absolute risk reduction compared with individuals <6 ng/L of troponin I, whereas the relative risk reduction was similar.

Conclusion

In individuals free of cardiovascular disease, the addition of troponin I to variables of established risk score improves prediction of cardiovascular death and cardiovascular disease.

SUBMITTER: Blankenberg S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4982535 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:AimsAs promising compounds to lower Lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)) are emerging, the need for a precise characterization and comparability of the Lp(a)-associated cardiovascular risk is increasing. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the distribution of Lp(a) concentrations across the European population, to characterize the association with cardiovascular outcomes and to provide high comparability of the Lp(a)-associated cardiovascular risk by use of centrally determined Lp(a) concentrations.Methods and resultsBased on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE)-project, we analysed data of 56?804 participants from 7 prospective population-based cohorts across Europe with a maximum follow-up of 24 years. All Lp(a) measurements were performed in the central BiomarCaRE laboratory (Biokit Quantia Lp(a)-Test; Abbott Diagnostics). The three endpoints considered were incident major coronary events (MCE), incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, and total mortality. We found lower Lp(a) levels in Northern European cohorts (median 4.9?mg/dL) compared to central (median 7.9?mg/dL) and Southern European cohorts (10.9?mg/dL) (Jonckheere-Terpstra test P?<?0.001). Kaplan-Meier curves showed the highest event rate of MCE and CVD events for Lp(a) levels??90th percentile (log-rank test: P?<?0.001 for MCE and CVD). Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors revealed a significant association of Lp(a) levels with MCE and CVD with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.30 for MCE [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15?1.46] and of 1.25 for CVD (95% CI 1.12?1.39) for Lp(a) levels in the 67?89th percentile and a HR of 1.49 for MCE (95% CI 1.29?1.73) and of 1.44 for CVD (95% CI 1.25?1.65) for Lp(a) levels???90th percentile vs. Lp(a) levels in the lowest third (P?<?0.001 for all). There was no significant association between Lp(a) levels and total mortality. Subgroup analysis for a continuous version of cube root transformed Lp(a) identified the highest Lp(a)-associated risk in individuals with diabetes [HR for MCE 1.31 (95% CI 1.15?1.50)] and for CVD 1.22 (95% CI 1.08?1.38) compared to those without diabetes [HR for MCE 1.15 (95% CI 1.08?1.21; HR for CVD 1.13 (1.07-1.19)] while no difference of the Lp(a)- associated risk were seen for other cardiovascular high risk states. The addition of Lp(a) levels to a prognostic model for MCE and CVD revealed only a marginal but significant C-index discrimination measure increase (0.001 for MCE and CVD; P?<?0.05) and net reclassification improvement (0.010 for MCE and 0.011 for CVD).ConclusionIn this large dataset on harmonized Lp(a) determination, we observed regional differences within the European population. Elevated Lp(a) was robustly associated with an increased risk for MCE and CVD in particular among individuals with diabetes. These results may lead to better identification of target populations who might benefit from future Lp(a)-lowering therapies.

Project description:BackgroundBiomarkers may contribute to improved cardiovascular risk estimation. Glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) is used to monitor the quality of diabetes treatment. Its strength of association with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population remains uncertain. This study aims to assess the association of HbA1c with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population.MethodsData from six prospective population-based cohort studies across Europe comprising 36,180 participants were analyzed. HbA1c was evaluated in conjunction with classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) for association with cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, and overall mortality in subjects without diabetes (N = 32,496) and with diabetes (N = 3684).ResultsKaplan-Meier curves showed higher event rates with increasing HbA1c levels (log-rank-test: p < 0.001). Cox regression analysis revealed significant associations between HbA1c (in mmol/mol) in the total study population and the examined outcomes. Thus, a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.31, p = 0.02) for cardiovascular mortality, 1.13 (95% CI 1.03-1.24, p = 0.01) for CVD incidence, and 1.09 (95% CI 1.02-1.17, p = 0.01) for overall mortality was observed per 10 mmol/mol increase in HbA1c. The association with CVD incidence and overall mortality was also observed in study participants without diabetes with increased HbA1c levels (HR 1.12; 95% CI 1.01-1.25, p = 0.04) and HR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01-1.20, p = 0.02) respectively. HbA1c cut-off values of 39.9 mmol/mol (5.8%), 36.6 mmol/mol (5.5%), and 38.8 mmol/mol (5.7%) for cardiovascular mortality, CVD incidence, and overall mortality, showed also an increased risk.ConclusionsHbA1c is independently associated with cardiovascular mortality, overall mortality and cardiovascular disease in the general European population. A mostly monotonically increasing relationship was observed between HbA1c levels and outcomes. Elevated HbA1c levels were associated with cardiovascular disease incidence and overall mortality in participants without diabetes underlining the importance of HbA1c levels in the overall population.

Project description:BackgroundThe risk of heart failure among diabetic individuals is high, even under tight glycemic control. The correlates and mediators of heart failure risk in individuals with diabetes need more elucidation in large population-based cohorts with long follow-up times and a wide panel of biologically relevant biomarkers.MethodsIn a population-based sample of 3834 diabetic and 90,177 non-diabetic individuals, proportional hazards models and mediation analysis were used to assess the relation of conventional heart failure risk factors and biomarkers with incident heart failure.ResultsOver a median follow-up of 13.8 years, a total of 652 (17.0%) and 5524 (6.1%) cases of incident heart failure were observed in participants with and without diabetes, respectively. 51.4% were women and the mean age at baseline was 48.7 (standard deviation [SD] 12.5) years. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for heart failure among diabetic individuals was 2.70 (95% confidence interval, 2.49-2.93) compared to non-diabetic participants. In the multivariable-adjusted Cox models, conventional cardiovascular disease risk factors, such as smoking (diabetes: HR 2.07 [1.59-2.69]; non-diabetes: HR 1.85 [1.68-2.02]), BMI (diabetes: HR 1.30 [1.18-1.42]; non-diabetes: HR 1.40 [1.35-1.47]), baseline myocardial infarction (diabetes: HR 2.06 [1.55-2.75]; non-diabetes: HR 2.86 [2.50-3.28]), and baseline atrial fibrillation (diabetes: HR 1.51 [0.82-2.80]; non-diabetes: HR 2.97 [2.21-4.00]) had the strongest associations with incident heart failure. In addition, biomarkers for cardiac strain (represented by nT-proBNP, diabetes: HR 1.26 [1.19-1.34]; non-diabetes: HR 1.43 [1.39-1.47]), myocardial injury (hs-TnI, diabetes: HR 1.10 [1.04-1.16]; non-diabetes: HR 1.13 [1.10-1.16]), and inflammation (hs-CRP, diabetes: HR 1.13 [1.03-1.24]; non-diabetes: HR 1.29 [1.25-1.34]) were also associated with incident heart failure. In general, all these associations were equally strong in non-diabetic and diabetic individuals. However, the strongest mediators of heart failure in diabetes were the direct effect of diabetes status itself (relative effect share 43.1% [33.9-52.3] and indirect effects (effect share 56.9% [47.7-66.1]) mediated by obesity (BMI, 13.2% [10.3-16.2]), cardiac strain/volume overload (nT-proBNP, 8.4% [-0.7-17.4]), and hyperglycemia (glucose, 12.0% [4.2-19.9]).ConclusionsThe findings suggest that the main mediators of heart failure in diabetes are obesity, hyperglycemia, and cardiac strain/volume overload. Conventional cardiovascular risk factors are strongly related to incident heart failure, but these associations are not stronger in diabetic than in non-diabetic individuals. Active measurement of relevant biomarkers could potentially be used to improve prevention and prediction of heart failure in high-risk diabetic patients.

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Project description:IntroductionRisk stratification scores such as the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) are used to guide individuals on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. Adding high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) to such risk scores has the potential to improve accuracy of CVD prediction. We investigated how applying hsTnI in addition to SCORE may impact management, outcome, and cost-effectiveness.MethodsCharacteristics of 72,190 apparently healthy individuals from the Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project were included into a discrete-event simulation comparing two strategies for assessing CVD risk. The standard strategy reflecting current practice employed SCORE (SCORE); the alternative strategy involved adding hsTnI information for further stratifying SCORE risk categories (S-SCORE). Individuals were followed over ten years from baseline examination to CVD event, death or end of follow-up. The model tracked the occurrence of events and calculated direct costs of screening, prevention, and treatment from a European health system perspective. Cost-effectiveness was expressed as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in € per quality-adjusted life year (QALYs) gained during 10 years of follow-up. Outputs were validated against observed rates, and results were tested in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.ResultsS-SCORE yielded a change in management for 10.0% of individuals, and a reduction in CVD events (4.85% vs. 5.38%, p<0.001) and mortality (6.80% vs. 7.04%, p<0.001). S-SCORE led to 23 (95%CI: 20-26) additional event-free years and 7 (95%CI: 5-9) additional QALYs per 1,000 subjects screened, and resulted in a relative risk reduction for CVD of 9.9% (95%CI: 7.3-13.5%) with a number needed to screen to prevent one event of 183 (95%CI: 172 to 203). S-SCORE increased costs per subject by 187€ (95%CI: 177 € to 196 €), leading to an ICER of 27,440€/QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis was performed with eligibility for treatment being the most sensitive.ConclusionAdding a person's hsTnI value to SCORE can impact clinical decision making and eventually improves QALYs and is cost-effective compared to CVD prevention strategies using SCORE alone. Stratifying SCORE risk classes for hsTnI would likely offer cost-effective alternatives, particularly when targeting higher risk groups.

Project description:AimsChronic kidney disease (CKD) has a complicated relationship with the heart, leading to many adverse outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between CKD and the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) along with mortality as a competing risk in general population cohorts. We also included an assessment of baseline biomarkers of inflammation, myocardial injury, and left ventricular dysfunction with risk of AF and HF, respectively, to shed light on the potential underlying pathophysiology.Methods and resultsThis study was conducted within the BiomarCaRE project using harmonized data from 12 European population-based cohorts (n = 48 518 participants). Renal function was assessed by glomerular filtration rate estimated using the combined Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation with standardized serum creatinine (Cr) and non-standardized serum cystatin C (CysC). Incidence of AF and HF respectively, during a median follow-up of 8 years was recorded. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine hazard ratios (HRs) for the incidence of AF and HF in CKD and the competing risk of mortality after adjustment for covariates. The mean age at baseline was 51.4 (standard deviation 12.1) years, 49% were men. Overall, 4.3% of subjects had CKD at baseline. The rate for AF was 3.8 per 1000 person-years during follow-up. The HR for AF in patients with CKD compared with patients without CKD was 1.28 (95% confidence interval 1.07-1.54) after adjustment for covariates. The rate for incident HF was 4.1 per 1000 person-years and the HR of CKD for HF was 1.71 (95% confidence interval 1.45-2.01. In subjects with CKD, N-terminal-pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) showed an association with AF, whereas NT-proBNP and C-reactive protein were associated with HF.ConclusionsChronic kidney disease is an independent risk factor for subsequent AF and is even more closely associated with HF. In these relatively young participants with CKD, NT-proBNP was strongly associated with subsequent risk of AF. For HF, in addition, elevated levels of hs-C-reactive protein at baseline were related to incident events.

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