Dataset Information

The Role of Node Heterogeneity in the Coupled Spreading of Epidemics and Awareness.

ABSTRACT: Exploring the interplay between information spreading and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. As an efficient means of depicting the spreading of information, which manifests as a cascade phenomenon, awareness cascading is utilized to investigate this coupled transmission. Because in reality, different individuals facing the same epidemic will exhibit distinct behaviors according to their own experiences and attributes, it is important for us to consider the heterogeneity of individuals. Consequently, we propose a heterogeneous spreading model. To describe the heterogeneity, two of the most important but radically different methods for this purpose, the degree and k-core measures, are studied in this paper through three models based on different assumptions. Adopting a Markov chain approach, we succeed in predicting the epidemic threshold trend. Furthermore, we find that when the k-core measure is used to classify individuals, the spreading process is robust to these models, meaning that regardless of the model used, the spreading process is nearly identical at the macroscopic level. In addition, the k-core measure leads to a much larger final epidemic size than the degree measure. These results are cross-checked through numerous simulations, not only of a synthetic network but also of a real multiplex network. The presented findings provide a better understanding of k-core individuals and reveal the importance of considering network structure when investigating various dynamic processes.

SUBMITTER: Guo Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4982672 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Role of Node Heterogeneity in the Coupled Spreading of Epidemics and Awareness.

Guo Quantong Q Lei Yanjun Y Xia Chengyi C Guo Lu L Jiang Xin X Zheng Zhiming Z

PloS one 20160812 8

Exploring the interplay between information spreading and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. As an efficient means of depicting the spreading of information, which manifests as a cascade phenomenon, awareness cascading is utilized to investigate this coupled transmission. Because in reality, different individuals facing the same epidemic will exhibit distinct behaviors according to their own experiences and attributes, it is important for us to consider t ...[more]

PMID: 27517715

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Project description:Simultaneously controlling COVID-19 epidemics and limiting economic and societal impacts presents a difficult challenge, especially with limited public health budgets. Testing, contact tracing, and isolating/quarantining is a key strategy that has been used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 and other pathogens. However, manual contact tracing is a time-consuming process and as case numbers increase a smaller fraction of cases' contacts can be traced, leading to additional virus spread. Delays between symptom onset and being tested (and receiving results), and a low fraction of symptomatic cases being tested and traced can also reduce the impact of contact tracing on transmission. We examined the relationship between increasing cases and delays and the pathogen reproductive number Rt, and the implications for infection dynamics using deterministic and stochastic compartmental models of SARS-CoV-2. We found that Rt increased sigmoidally with the number of cases due to decreasing contact tracing efficacy. This relationship results in accelerating epidemics because Rt initially increases, rather than declines, as infections increase. Shifting contact tracers from locations with high and low case burdens relative to capacity to locations with intermediate case burdens maximizes their impact in reducing Rt (but minimizing total infections may be more complicated). Contact tracing efficacy decreased sharply with increasing delays between symptom onset and tracing and with lower fraction of symptomatic infections being tested. Finally, testing and tracing reductions in Rt can sometimes greatly delay epidemics due to the highly heterogeneous transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. These results demonstrate the importance of having an expandable or mobile team of contact tracers that can be used to control surges in cases. They also highlight the synergistic value of high capacity, easy access testing and rapid turn-around of testing results, and outreach efforts to encourage symptomatic cases to be tested immediately after symptom onset.

Dataset Information

The Role of Node Heterogeneity in the Coupled Spreading of Epidemics and Awareness.

Publications

The Role of Node Heterogeneity in the Coupled Spreading of Epidemics and Awareness.

Similar Datasets

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