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Demographic noise can reverse the direction of deterministic selection.

ABSTRACT: Deterministic evolutionary theory robustly predicts that populations displaying altruistic behaviors will be driven to extinction by mutant cheats that absorb common benefits but do not themselves contribute. Here we show that when demographic stochasticity is accounted for, selection can in fact act in the reverse direction to that predicted deterministically, instead favoring cooperative behaviors that appreciably increase the carrying capacity of the population. Populations that exist in larger numbers experience a selective advantage by being more stochastically robust to invasions than smaller populations, and this advantage can persist even in the presence of reproductive costs. We investigate this general effect in the specific context of public goods production and find conditions for stochastic selection reversal leading to the success of public good producers. This insight, developed here analytically, is missed by the deterministic analysis as well as by standard game theoretic models that enforce a fixed population size. The effect is found to be amplified by space; in this scenario we find that selection reversal occurs within biologically reasonable parameter regimes for microbial populations. Beyond the public good problem, we formulate a general mathematical framework for models that may exhibit stochastic selection reversal. In this context, we describe a stochastic analog to [Formula: see text] theory, by which small populations can evolve to higher densities in the absence of disturbance.

SUBMITTER: Constable GW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4987790 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Demographic noise can reverse the direction of deterministic selection.

Constable George W A GW Rogers Tim T McKane Alan J AJ Tarnita Corina E CE

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20160722 32

Deterministic evolutionary theory robustly predicts that populations displaying altruistic behaviors will be driven to extinction by mutant cheats that absorb common benefits but do not themselves contribute. Here we show that when demographic stochasticity is accounted for, selection can in fact act in the reverse direction to that predicted deterministically, instead favoring cooperative behaviors that appreciably increase the carrying capacity of the population. Populations that exist in larg ...[more]

PMID: 27450085

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Project description:Identifying genes with the largest expression changes (gene selection) to characterize a given condition is a popular first step to drive exploration into molecular mechanisms and is, therefore, paramount for therapeutic development. Reproducibility in the sciences makes it necessary to emphasize objectivity and systematic repeatability in biological and informatics analyses, including gene selection. With these two characteristics in mind, in previous works our research team has proposed using multiple criteria optimization (MCO) in gene selection to analyze microarray datasets. The result of this effort is the MCO algorithm, which selects genes with the largest expression changes without user manipulation of neither informatics nor statistical parameters. Furthermore, the user is not required to choose either a preference structure among multiple measures or a predetermined quantity of genes to be deemed significant a priori. This implies that using the same datasets and performance measures (PMs), the method will converge to the same set of selected differentially expressed genes (repeatability) despite who carries out the analysis (objectivity). The present work describes the development of an open-source tool in RStudio to enable both: (1) individual analysis of single datasets with two or three PMs and (2) meta-analysis with up to five microarray datasets, using one PM from each dataset. The capabilities afforded by the code include license-free portability and the possibility to carry out analyses via modest computer hardware, such as personal laptops. The code provides affordable, repeatable, and objective detection of differentially expressed genes from microarrays. It can be used to analyze other experiments with similar experimental comparative layouts, such as microRNA arrays and protein arrays, among others. As a demonstration of the capabilities of the code, the analysis of four publicly-available microarray datasets related to Parkinson´s Disease (PD) is presented here, treating each dataset individually or as a four-way meta-analysis. These MCO-supported analyses made it possible to identify MMP9 and TUBB2A as potential PD genetic biomarkers based on their persistent appearance across each of the case studies. A literature search confirmed the importance of these genes in PD and indeed as PD biomarkers, which evidences the code´s potential.

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Demographic noise can reverse the direction of deterministic selection.

Publications

Demographic noise can reverse the direction of deterministic selection.

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