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Comparison of the utility of preoperative versus postoperative B-type natriuretic peptide for predicting hospital length of stay and mortality after primary coronary artery bypass grafting.

ABSTRACT: Preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is known to predict adverse outcomes after cardiac surgery. The value of postoperative BNP for predicting adverse outcomes is less well delineated. The authors hypothesized that peak postoperative plasma BNP (measured postoperative days 1-5) predicts hospital length of stay (HLOS) and mortality in patients undergoing primary coronary artery bypass grafting, even after adjusting for preoperative BNP and perioperative clinical risk factors.This study is a prospective longitudinal study of 1,183 patients undergoing primary coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. Mortality was defined as all-cause death within 5 yr after surgery. Cox proportional hazards analyses were conducted to separately evaluate the associations between peak postoperative BNP and HLOS and mortality. Multivariable adjustments were made for patient demographics, preoperative BNP concentration, and clinical risk factors. BNP measurements were log10 transformed before analysis.One hundred fifteen deaths (9.7%) occurred in the cohort (mean follow-up = 4.3 yr, range = 2.38-5.0 yr). After multivariable adjustment for preoperative BNP and clinical covariates, peak postoperative BNP predicted HLOS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.002-1.64, P = 0.049) but not mortality (HR = 1.62, CI = 0.71-3.68, P = 0.25), whereas preoperative BNP independently predicted HLOS (HR = 1.09, CI = 1.01-1.18, P = 0.03) and approached being an independent predictor of mortality (HR = 1.36, CI = 0.96-1.94, P = 0.08). When preoperative and peak postoperative BNP were separately adjusted for within the clinical multivariable models, each independently predicted HLOS (preoperative BNP HR = 1.13, CI = 1.05-1.21, P = 0.0007; peak postoperative BNP HR = 1.44, CI = 1.15-1.81, P = 0.001) and mortality (preoperative BNP HR = 1.50, CI = 1.09-2.07, P = 0.01; peak postoperative BNP HR = 2.29, CI = 1.11-4.73, P = 0.02).Preoperative BNP may be better than peak postoperative BNP for predicting HLOS and longer term mortality after primary coronary artery bypass grafting surgery.

SUBMITTER: Fox AA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4988794 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparison of the utility of preoperative versus postoperative B-type natriuretic peptide for predicting hospital length of stay and mortality after primary coronary artery bypass grafting.

Fox Amanda A AA Muehlschlegel Jochen D JD Body Simon C SC Shernan Stanton K SK Liu Kuang-Yu KY Perry Tjorvi E TE Aranki Sary F SF Cook E Francis EF Marcantonio Edward R ER Collard Charles D CD

Anesthesiology 20100401 4

<h4>Background</h4>Preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is known to predict adverse outcomes after cardiac surgery. The value of postoperative BNP for predicting adverse outcomes is less well delineated. The authors hypothesized that peak postoperative plasma BNP (measured postoperative days 1-5) predicts hospital length of stay (HLOS) and mortality in patients undergoing primary coronary artery bypass grafting, even after adjusting for preoperative BNP and perioperative clinical risk f ...[more]

PMID: 20216395

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Project description:Purpose Predictive analytics (PA) is a new trending approach in the field of healthcare that uses machine learning to build a prediction model using supervised learning algorithms. Isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (iCABG), an open-heart surgery, is commonly performed in the treatment of coronary heart disease. Aim The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a model to predict postoperative length of stay (PLoS) for iCABG patients using supervised machine learning techniques, and to identify the features with the highest contribution to the model. Methods This is a retrospective study that uses historic data of adult patients who underwent isolated CABG (iCABG). After initial data pre-processing, data imputation using the kNN method was applied. The study used five prediction models using Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Logistic Regression and k Nearest Neighbor algorithms. Data imbalance was managed using the following widely used methods: oversampling, undersampling, “Both”, and random over-sampling examples (ROSE). The features selection process was conducted using the Boruta method. Two techniques were applied to examine the performance of the models, (70%, 30%) split and cross-validation, respectively. Models were evaluated by comparing their performance using AUC and other metrics. Results In the final dataset, six distinct features and 621 instances were used to develop the models. A total of 20 models were developed using R statistical software. The model generated using Random Forest with “Both” resampling method and cross-validation technique was deemed the best fit (AUC=0.81; F1 score=0.82; and recall=0.82). Attributes found to be highly predictive of PLoS were pulmonary artery systolic, age, height, EuroScore II, intra-aortic balloon pump used, and complications during operation. Conclusion This study demonstrates the significance and effectiveness of building a model that predicts PLoS for iCABG patients using patient specifications and pre-/intra-operative measures.

Project description:Surgical revascularization with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) has become established as the most effective interventional therapy for patients with moderately severe and severe stable ischemic heart disease (SIHD). This recommendation is based on traditional 5-year outcomes of mortality and avoidance of myocardial infarction leading to reintervention and/or cardiac death. However, these results are confounded in that they challenge the traditional CABG surgical tenets of completeness of anatomic revascularization, the impact of arterial revascularization on late survival, and the lesser impact of secondary prevention following CABG on late outcomes. Moreover, the emergence of physiologic-based revascularization with percutaneous cardiovascular intervention as an alternative strategy for revascularization in SIHD raises the question of whether there are similar physiologic effects in CABG. Finally, the ongoing ISCHEMIA trial is specifically addressing the importance of the physiology of moderate or severe ischemia in optimizing therapeutic interventions in SIHD. So it is time to address the role that physiology plays in surgical revascularization. The long-standing anatomic framework for surgical revascularization is no longer sufficient to explain the mechanisms for short-term and long-term outcomes in CABG. Novel intraoperative imaging technologies have generated important new data on the physiologic blood flow and myocardial perfusion responses to revascularization on an individual graft and global basis. Long-standing assumptions about technical issues such as competitive flow are brought into question by real-time visualization of the physiology of revascularization. Our underestimation of the impact of Guideline Directed Medical Therapy, or Optimal Medical Therapy, on the physiology of preoperative SIHD, and the full impact of secondary prevention on post-intervention SIHD, must be better understood. In this review, these issues are addressed through the perspective of multi-arterial revascularization in CABG, which is emerging (after 30 years) as the "standard of care" for CABG. In fact, it is the physiology of these arterial grafts that is the mechanism for their impact on long-term outcomes in CABG. Moreover, a better understanding of all of these preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative components of the physiology of revascularization that will generate the next, more granular body of knowledge about CABG, and enable surgeons to design and execute a better surgical revascularization procedure for patients in the future.

Project description:Elevated B-type natriuretic peptide is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in ambulatory patients with congestive heart failure or acute coronary syndromes. Its utility in predicting adverse cardiac surgical outcomes is less certain. We hypothesized that preoperative plasma B-type natriuretic peptide would independently predict in-hospital postoperative ventricular dysfunction, hospital stay, and up to 5-year mortality after primary coronary artery bypass grafting.This is a prospective, longitudinal study of 1023 patients at two institutions undergoing primary coronary artery bypass grafting with cardiopulmonary bypass. Ventricular dysfunction was defined as requirement for at least two inotropes or new intra-aortic balloon pump or ventricular assist device support after coronary artery bypass grafting. Multivariable analyses assessed independent roles of preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide in predicting postoperative ventricular dysfunction, hospital stay, and 5-year all-cause mortality.Preoperative plasma B-type natriuretic peptide concentration predicted ventricular dysfunction, hospital stay, and mortality in univariate and multivariable analyses. Logistic regression demonstrated preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide to independently predict ventricular dysfunction (odds ratio 1.92, 95% confidence interval 1.12-3.29, P = .018), after adjustment for preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction, congestive heart failure severity, and other clinical predictors. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models showed preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide to independently predict hospital stay (hazard ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.18-1.72, P = .0002) and mortality (hazard ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.08-3.33, P = .026).Preoperative plasma B-type natriuretic peptide independently predicted in-hospital ventricular dysfunction, hospital stay, and up to 5-year all-cause mortality after primary coronary artery bypass grafting.

Dataset Information

Comparison of the utility of preoperative versus postoperative B-type natriuretic peptide for predicting hospital length of stay and mortality after primary coronary artery bypass grafting.

Publications

Comparison of the utility of preoperative versus postoperative B-type natriuretic peptide for predicting hospital length of stay and mortality after primary coronary artery bypass grafting.

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