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Derivation of genetic biomarkers for cancer risk stratification in Barrett's oesophagus: a prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:The risk of developing adenocarcinoma in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus is low and difficult to predict. Accurate tools for risk stratification are needed to increase the efficiency of surveillance. We aimed to develop a prediction model for progression using clinical variables and genetic markers. METHODS:In a prospective cohort of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus, we evaluated six molecular markers: p16, p53, Her-2/neu, 20q, MYC and aneusomy by DNA fluorescence in situ hybridisation on brush cytology specimens. Primary study outcomes were the development of high-grade dysplasia or oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The most predictive clinical variables and markers were determined using Cox proportional-hazards models, receiver operating characteristic curves and a leave-one-out analysis. RESULTS:A total of 428 patients participated (345 men; median age 60?years) with a cumulative follow-up of 2019 patient-years (median 45?months per patient). Of these patients, 22 progressed; nine developed high-grade dysplasia and 13 oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The clinical variables, age and circumferential Barrett's length, and the markers, p16 loss, MYC gain and aneusomy, were significantly associated with progression on univariate analysis. We defined an 'Abnormal Marker Count' that counted abnormalities in p16, MYC and aneusomy, which significantly improved risk prediction beyond using just age and Barrett's length. In multivariate analysis, these three factors identified a high-risk group with an 8.7-fold (95% CI 2.6 to 29.8) increased HR when compared with the low-risk group, with an area under the curve of 0.76 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.86). CONCLUSIONS:A prediction model based on age, Barrett's length and the markers p16, MYC and aneusomy determines progression risk in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus.

SUBMITTER: Timmer MR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4988941 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Derivation of genetic biomarkers for cancer risk stratification in Barrett's oesophagus: a prospective cohort study.

Timmer Margriet R MR Martinez Pierre P Lau Chiu T CT Westra Wytske M WM Calpe Silvia S Rygiel Agnieszka M AM Rosmolen Wilda D WD Meijer Sybren L SL Ten Kate Fiebo J W FJ Dijkgraaf Marcel G W MG Mallant-Hent Rosalie C RC Naber Anton H J AH van Oijen Arnoud H A M AH Baak Lubbertus C LC Scholten Pieter P Böhmer Clarisse J M CJ Fockens Paul P Maley Carlo C CC Graham Trevor A TA Bergman Jacques J G H M JJ Krishnadath Kausilia K KK

Gut 20150623 10

<h4>Objective</h4>The risk of developing adenocarcinoma in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus is low and difficult to predict. Accurate tools for risk stratification are needed to increase the efficiency of surveillance. We aimed to develop a prediction model for progression using clinical variables and genetic markers.<h4>Methods</h4>In a prospective cohort of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus, we evaluated six molecular markers: p16, p53, Her-2/neu, 20q, MYC and aneusomy by DN ...[more]

PMID: 26104750

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Project description:BackgroundParacetamol overdose is common but patient stratification is suboptimal. We investigated the usefulness of new biomarkers that have either enhanced liver specificity (microRNA-122 [miR-122]) or provide mechanistic insights (keratin-18 [K18], high mobility group box-1 [HMGB1], and glutamate dehydrogenase [GLDH]). The use of these biomarkers could help stratify patients for their risk of liver injury at hospital presentation.MethodsUsing data from two prospective cohort studies, we assessed the potential for biomarkers to stratify patients who overdose with paracetamol. We completed two independent prospective studies: a derivation study (MAPP) in eight UK hospitals and a validation study (BIOPAR) in ten UK hospitals. Patients in both cohorts were adults (≥18 years in England, ≥16 years in Scotland), were diagnosed with paracetamol overdose, and gave written informed consent. Patients who needed intravenous acetylcysteine treatment for paracetamol overdose had circulating biomarkers measured at hospital presentation. The primary endpoint was acute liver injury indicating need for continued acetylcysteine treatment beyond the standard course (alanine aminotransferase [ALT] activity >100 U/L). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, category-free net reclassification index (cfNRI), and integrated discrimination index (IDI) were applied to assess endpoint prediction.FindingsBetween June 2, 2010, and May 29, 2014, 1187 patients who required acetylcysteine treatment for paracetamol overdose were recruited (985 in the MAPP cohort; 202 in the BIOPAR cohort). In the derivation and validation cohorts, acute liver injury was predicted at hospital presentation by miR-122 (derivation cohort ROC-area under the curve [AUC] 0·97 [95% CI 0·95-0·98]), HMGB1 (0·95 [0·93-0·98]), and full-length K18 (0·95 [0·92-0·97]). Results were similar in the validation cohort (miR-122 AUC 0·97 [95% CI 0·95-0·99], HMGB1 0·98 [0·96-0·99], and full-length K18 0·93 [0·86-0·99]). A combined model of miR-122, HMGB1, and K18 predicted acute liver injury better than ALT alone (cfNRI 1·95 [95% CI 1·87-2·03], p<0·0001 in the MAPP cohort; 1·54 [1·08-2·00], p<0·0001 in the BIOPAR cohort).InterpretationPersonalised treatment pathways could be developed by use of miR-122, HMGB1, and full-length K18 at hospital presentation for patient stratification. This prospective study supports their use for hepatic safety assessment of new medicines.FundingEdinburgh and Lothians Health Foundation, UK Medical Research Council.

Dataset Information

Derivation of genetic biomarkers for cancer risk stratification in Barrett's oesophagus: a prospective cohort study.

Publications

Derivation of genetic biomarkers for cancer risk stratification in Barrett's oesophagus: a prospective cohort study.

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