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Risk prediction of major complications in individuals with diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

ABSTRACT: AIMS:To develop a prediction equation for 10-year risk of a combined endpoint (incident coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, lower extremity hospitalizations) in people with diabetes, using demographic and clinical information, and a panel of traditional and non-traditional biomarkers. METHODS:We included in the study 654 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a prospective cohort study, with diagnosed diabetes (visit 2; 1990-1992). Models included self-reported variables (Model 1), clinical measurements (Model 2), and glycated haemoglobin (Model 3). Model 4 tested the addition of 12 blood-based biomarkers. We compared models using prediction and discrimination statistics. RESULTS:Successive stages of model development improved risk prediction. The C-statistics (95% confidence intervals) of models 1, 2, and 3 were 0.667 (0.64, 0.70), 0.683 (0.65, 0.71), and 0.694 (0.66, 0.72), respectively (p?

SUBMITTER: Parrinello CM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4993670 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk prediction of major complications in individuals with diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Parrinello C M CM Matsushita K K Woodward M M Wagenknecht L E LE Coresh J J Selvin E E

Diabetes, obesity & metabolism 20160614 9

<h4>Aims</h4>To develop a prediction equation for 10-year risk of a combined endpoint (incident coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, lower extremity hospitalizations) in people with diabetes, using demographic and clinical information, and a panel of traditional and non-traditional biomarkers.<h4>Methods</h4>We included in the study 654 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a prospective cohort study, with diagnosed diabetes (visi ...[more]

PMID: 27161077

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Project description:BackgroundHbA1c is the standard measure by which to monitor long-term (2-3 months) glucose control in people with diabetes and is now used for diagnosis of diabetes. Fructosamine and glycated albumin are markers of short-term (2-4 weeks) glycaemic control that might add complementary prognostic information to HbA1c. Our aim was to clarify the performance of fructosamine and glycated albumin measurements for identifying people at risk of incident diabetes or diabetic complications.MethodsWe measured glycated albumin and fructosamine in blood samples from 11 348 adults without diabetes and 958 adults diagnosed with diabetes mellitus (both type 1 and 2) who attended the second examination of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study in 1990-92 (baseline). We assessed the associations of fructosamine and glycated albumin with risk of incident diabetes, retinopathy, and risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD), during two decades of follow-up. We compared these associations with those of HbA1c with incident diabetes, retinopathy, and CKD. For analyses of associations with incident diabetes and CKD, adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and their corresponding 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Model discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C statistic.FindingsThe HRs for incident diabetes were 4·96 (4·36-5·64) for fructosamine above the 95th percentile and 6·17 (5·45-6·99) for glycated albumin above the 95th percentile. Associations were attenuated but persisted after adjustment for HbA1c. Fructosamine and glycated albumin were strongly associated with retinopathy (p<0·0001 for trend). The multivariable-adjusted HRs for CKD for people with fructosamine and glycated albumin above the 95th percentile were 1·50 (95% CI 1·22-1·85) and 1·48 (1·20-1·83), respectively, when compared with people with no diabetes and fructosamine or glycated albumin below the 75th percentile. Prediction of incident CKD by fructosamine (C statistic 0·717) and glycated albumin (0·717) were nearly as strong as by HbA1c (0·726), but HbA1c outperformed fructosamine and glycated albumin for prediction of incident diabetes with C statistics of 0·760, 0·706, and 0·703, respectively.InterpretationFructosamine and glycated albumin were strongly associated with incident diabetes and its microvascular complications, with prognostic value comparable to HbA1c.FundingNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Project description:ObjectiveCardiovascular disease (CVD) is the major cause of morbidity and mortality in diabetes; yet, heterogeneity in CVD risk has been suggested in diabetes, providing a compelling rationale for improving diabetes risk stratification. We hypothesized that N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP) and high-sensitivity troponin T may enhance CVD risk stratification beyond commonly used markers of risk and that CVD risk is heterogeneous in diabetes.Research design and methodsAmong 8,402 participants without prevalent CVD at visit 4 (1996-1998) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study there were 1,510 subjects with diabetes (mean age 63 years, 52% women, 31% African American, and 60% hypertensive).ResultsOver a median follow-up of 13.1 years, there were 540 incident fatal/nonfatal CVD events (coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke). Both troponin T ≥14 ng/L (hazard ratio [HR] 1.96 [95% CI 1.57-2.46]) and NTproBNP >125 pg/mL (1.61 [1.29-1.99]) were independent predictors of incident CVD events at multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. Addition of circulating cardiac biomarkers to traditional risk factors, abnormal electrocardiogram (ECG), and conventional markers of diabetes complications including retinopathy, nephropathy, and peripheral arterial disease significantly improved CVD risk prediction (net reclassification index 0.16 [95% CI 0.07-0.22]). Compared with individuals without diabetes, subjects with diabetes had 1.6-fold higher adjusted risk of incident CVD. However, participants with diabetes with normal cardiac biomarkers and no conventional complications/abnormal ECG (n = 725 [48%]) were at low risk (HR 1.12 [95% CI 0.95-1.31]), while those with abnormal cardiac biomarkers, alone (n = 186 [12%]) or in combination with conventional complications/abnormal ECG (n = 243 [16%]), were at greater risk (1.99 [1.59-2.50] and 2.80 [2.34-3.35], respectively).ConclusionsAbnormal levels of NTproBNP and troponin T may help to distinguish individuals with high diabetes risk from those with low diabetes risk, providing incremental risk prediction beyond commonly used markers of risk.

Project description:ObjectiveTo examine the magnitude and types of hospitalizations among persons with prediabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes.Research design and methodsThis study included 13,522 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (mean age 57 years, 56% female, 24% black, 18% with prediabetes, 4% with undiagnosed diabetes, 9% with diagnosed diabetes) with follow-up in 1990-2011 for hospitalizations. Participants were categorized by diabetes/HbA1c status: without diagnosed diabetes, HbA1c <5.7% (reference); prediabetes, 5.7 to <6.5%; undiagnosed diabetes, ≥6.5%; and diagnosed diabetes, <7.0 and ≥7.0%.ResultsDemographic adjusted rates per 1,000 person-years of all-cause hospitalizations were higher with increasing diabetes/HbA1c category (Ptrend < 0.001). Persons with diagnosed diabetes and HbA1c ≥7.0% had the highest rates of hospitalization (3.1 times higher than those without a history of diagnosed diabetes, HbA1c <5.7%, and 1.5 times higher than those with diagnosed diabetes, HbA1c <7.0%, P < 0.001 for both comparisons). Persons with undiagnosed diabetes had 1.6 times higher rates of hospitalization and those with prediabetes had 1.3 times higher rates of hospitalization than those without diabetes and HbA1c <5.7% (P < 0.001 for both comparisons). Rates of hospitalization by diabetes/HbA1c category were different by race (Pinteraction = 0.011) and by sex (Pinteraction = 0.020). There were significantly excess rates of hospitalizations due to cardiovascular, endocrine, respiratory, gastrointestinal, iatrogenic/injury, neoplasm, genitourinary, neurologic, and infection causes among those with diagnosed diabetes compared with those without a history of diagnosed diabetes (all P < 0.05).ConclusionsPersons with diagnosed diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and prediabetes are at a significantly elevated risk of hospitalization compared with those without diabetes. Substantial excess rates of hospitalizations in persons with diagnosed diabetes were for endocrine, infection, and iatrogenic/injury causes, which may be preventable with improved diabetes care.

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Risk prediction of major complications in individuals with diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

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Risk prediction of major complications in individuals with diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

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