Early prediction of outcome after severe traumatic brain injury: a simple and practical model.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Rizoli S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4995825 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Early prediction of outcome after severe traumatic brain injury: a simple and practical model.
Rizoli Sandro S Petersen Ashley A Bulger Eileen E Coimbra Raul R Kerby Jeffrey D JD Minei Joseph J Morrison Laurie L Nathens Avery A Schreiber Martin M de Oliveira Manoel Airton Leonardo AL
BMC emergency medicine 20160824 1
<h4>Background</h4>Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a heterogeneous syndrome with a broad range of outcome. We developed a simple model for long-term outcome prognostication after severe TBI.<h4>Methods</h4>Secondary data analysis of a large multicenter randomized trial. Patients were grouped according to 6-month extended Glasgow outcome scale (eGOS): poor-outcome (eGOS ≤ 4; severe disability or death) and acceptable outcome (eGOS > 4; no or moderate disability). A prediction decision tree was bu ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:Prognostication in the early stage of traumatic coma is a common challenge in the neuro-intensive care unit. We report the unexpected recovery of functional milestones (i.e., consciousness, communication, and community reintegration) in a 19-year-old man who sustained a severe traumatic brain injury. The early magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings, at the time, suggested a poor prognosis.During the first year of the patient's recovery, MRI with diffusion tensor imaging and T2*-weighted imaging was performed on day 8 (coma), day 44 (minimally conscious state), day 198 (post-traumatic confusional state), and day 366 (community reintegration). Mean apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and fractional anisotropy values in the corpus callosum, cerebral hemispheric white matter, and thalamus were compared with clinical assessments using the Disability Rating Scale (DRS).Extensive diffusion restriction in the corpus callosum and bihemispheric white matter was observed on day 8, with ADC values in a range typically associated with neurotoxic injury (230-400 × 10(-6 )mm(2)/s). T2*-weighted MRI revealed widespread hemorrhagic axonal injury in the cerebral hemispheres, corpus callosum, and brainstem. Despite the presence of severe axonal injury on early MRI, the patient regained the ability to communicate and perform activities of daily living independently at 1 year post-injury (DRS = 8).MRI data should be interpreted with caution when prognosticating for patients in traumatic coma. Recovery of consciousness and community reintegration are possible even when extensive traumatic axonal injury is demonstrated by early MRI.
| S-EPMC3902071 | biostudies-literature
Project description:For patients surviving serious traumatic brain injury (TBI), families and other stakeholders often desire information on long-term functional prognosis, but accurate and easy-to-use clinical tools are lacking. We aimed to build utilitarian decision trees from commonly collected clinical variables to predict Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) functional levels at 1, 2, and 5 years after moderate-to-severe closed TBI. Flexible classification tree statistical modeling was used on prospectively collected data from the TBI-Model Systems (TBIMS) inception cohort study. Enrollments occurred at 17 designated, or previously designated, TBIMS inpatient rehabilitation facilities. Analysis included all participants with nonpenetrating TBI injured between January 1997 and January 2017. Sample sizes were 10,125 (year-1), 8,821 (year-2), and 6,165 (year-5) after cross-sectional exclusions (death, vegetative state, insufficient post-injury time, and unavailable outcome). In our final models, post-traumatic amnesia (PTA) duration consistently dominated branching hierarchy and was the lone injury characteristic significantly contributing to GOS predictability. Lower-order variables that added predictability were age, pre-morbid education, productivity, and occupational category. Generally, patient outcomes improved with shorter PTA, younger age, greater pre-morbid productivity, and higher pre-morbid vocational or educational achievement. Across all prognostic groups, the best and worst good recovery rates were 65.7% and 10.9%, respectively, and the best and worst severe disability rates were 3.9% and 64.1%. Predictability in test data sets ranged from C-statistic of 0.691 (year-1; confidence interval [CI], 0.675, 0.711) to 0.731 (year-2; CI, 0.724, 0.738). In conclusion, we developed a clinically useful tool to provide prognostic information on long-term functional outcomes for adult survivors of moderate and severe closed TBI. Predictive accuracy for GOS level was demonstrated in an independent test sample. Length of PTA, a clinical marker of injury severity, was by far the most critical outcome determinant.
| S-EPMC6016099 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Brain injury exosomal proteins are promising blood biomarker candidates in traumatic brain injury (TBI). A better understanding of their role in the diagnosis, characterization, and management of TBI is essential for upcoming clinical implementation. In the current investigation, we aimed to explore longitudinal trajectories of brain injury exosomal proteins in blood of patients with moderate-to-severe TBI, and to evaluate the relation with the free-circulating counterpart and patient imaging and clinical parameters. Exosomal levels of glial (glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)) and neuronal/axonal (ubiquitin carboxy-terminal hydrolase L1 (UCH-L1), neurofilament light chain (NFL), and total-tau (t-tau)) proteins were measured in serum of 21 patients for up 5 days after injury using single molecule array (Simoa) technology. Group-based trajectory analysis was used to generate distinct temporal exosomal biomarker profiles. We found altered profiles of serum brain injury exosomal proteins following injury. The dynamics and levels of exosomal and related free-circulating markers, although correlated, showed differences. Patients with diffuse injury displayed higher acute exosomal NFL and GFAP concentrations in serum than those with focal lesions. Exosomal UCH-L1 profile characterized by acutely elevated values and a secondary steep rise was associated with early mortality (n = 2) with a sensitivity and specificity of 100%. Serum brain injury exosomal proteins yielded important diagnostic and prognostic information and represent a novel means to unveil underlying pathophysiology in patients with moderate-to-severe TBI. Our findings support their utility as potential tools to improve patient phenotyping in clinical practice and therapeutic trials.
| S-EPMC7227241 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading neurological cause of death and disability across the world. Early characterization of TBI severity could provide a window for therapeutic intervention and contribute to improved outcome. We hypothesized that granular electronic health record data available in the first 24 h following admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) can be used to differentiate outcomes at discharge. Working from two ICU datasets we focused on patients with a primary admission diagnosis of TBI whose length of stay in ICU was ≥ 24 h (N = 1689 and 127). Features derived from clinical, laboratory, medication, and physiological time series data in the first 24 h after ICU admission were used to train elastic-net regularized Generalized Linear Models for the prediction of mortality and neurological function at ICU discharge. Model discrimination, determined by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis, was 0.903 and 0.874 for mortality and neurological function, respectively. Model performance was successfully validated in an external dataset (AUC 0.958 and 0.878 for mortality and neurological function, respectively). These results demonstrate that computational analysis of data routinely collected in the first 24 h after admission accurately and reliably predict discharge outcomes in ICU stratum TBI patients.
| S-EPMC8497604 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI) is typically assessed using the Glasgow outcome scale extended (GOSE) with levels from 1 (death) to 8 (upper good recovery). Outcome prediction has classically been dichotomized into either dead/alive or favorable/unfavorable outcome. Binary outcome prediction models limit the possibility of detecting subtle yet significant improvements. We set out to explore different machine learning methods with the purpose of mapping their predictions to the full 8 grade scale GOSE following TBI. The models were set up using the variables: age, GCS-motor score, pupillary reaction, and Marshall CT score. For model setup and internal validation, a total of 866 patients could be included. For external validation, a cohort of 369 patients were included from Leuven, Belgium, and a cohort of 573 patients from the US multi-center ProTECT III study. Our findings indicate that proportional odds logistic regression (POLR), random forest regression, and a neural network model achieved accuracy values of 0.3-0.35 when applied to internal data, compared to the random baseline which is 0.125 for eight categories. The models demonstrated satisfactory performance during external validation in the data from Leuven, however, their performance were not satisfactory when applied to the ProTECT III dataset.
| S-EPMC10997790 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTraumatic brain injury (TBI) is the leading cause of death and disability in children, but effective tools for predicting outcome remain elusive. Although many pediatric patients receive early magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), data on its utility in prognostication are lacking. Diffuse axonal injury (DAI) is a hallmark of TBI detected on early MRI and was shown previously to improve prognostication in adult patients with TBI. In this exploratory study, we investigated whether DAI grade correlates with functional outcome and improves prognostic accuracy when combined with core clinical variables and computed tomography (CT) biomarkers in pediatric patients with moderate-severe TBI (msTBI).MethodsPediatric patients (≤ 19 years) who were admitted to two regional level one trauma centers with a diagnosis of msTBI (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score < 13) between 2011 and 2019 were identified through retrospective chart review. Patients who underwent brain MRI within 30 days of injury and had documented clinical follow-up after discharge were included. Age, pupil reactivity, and initial motor GCS score were collected as part of the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) model. Imaging was reviewed to calculate the Rotterdam score (CT) and DAI grade (MRI) and to evaluate for presence of hypoxic-ischemic injury (MRI). The primary outcome measure was the Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category Scale (PCPCS) score at 6 months after TBI, with favorable outcome defined as PCPCS scores 1-3 and unfavorable outcome defined as PCPCS scores 4-6. The secondary outcome measure was discharge disposition to home versus to an inpatient rehabilitation facility.ResultOf 55 patients included in the study, 45 (82%) had severe TBI. The most common mechanism of injury was motor vehicle collision (71%). Initial head CT scans showed acute hemorrhage in 84% of patients. MRI was acquired a median of 5 days after injury, and hemorrhagic DAI lesions were detected in 87% of patients. Each 1-point increase in DAI grade increased the odds of unfavorable functional outcome by 2.4-fold. When controlling for core IMPACT clinical variables, neither the DAI grade nor the Rotterdam score was independently correlated with outcome and neither significantly improved outcome prediction over the IMPACT model alone.ConclusionsA higher DAI grade on early MRI is associated with worse 6-month functional outcome and with discharge to inpatient rehabilitation in children with acute msTBI in a univariate analysis but does not independently correlate with outcome when controlling for the GCS score. Addition of the DAI grade to the core IMPACT model does not significantly improve prediction of poor neurological outcome. Further study is needed to elucidate the utility of early MRI in children with msTBI.
| S-EPMC8405042 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEarly identification of traumatic intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) has implications for triage and intervention. Blood-based biomarkers were recently approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for prediction of ICH in patients with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI). We sought to determine if biomarkers measured early after injury improve prediction of mortality and clinical/radiologic outcomes compared with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) alone in patients with moderate or severe TBI (MS-TBI).MethodsWe measured glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase L1 (UCH-L1), and microtubule-associated protein-2 (MAP-2) on arrival to the emergency department (ED) in patients with blunt TBI enrolled in the placebo arm of the Prehospital TXA for TBI Trial (prehospital GCS score, 3-12; SPB, > 90). Biomarkers were modeled individually and together with prehospital predictor variables [PH] (GCS score, age, sex). Data were divided into a training data set and test data set for model derivation and evaluation. Models were evaluated for prediction of ICH, mass lesion, 48-hour and 28-day mortality, and 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E) and Disability Rating Scale (DRS). Area under the curve (AUC) was evaluated in test data for PH alone, PH + individual biomarkers, and PH + three biomarkers.ResultsOf 243 patients with baseline samples (obtained a median of 84 minutes after injury), prehospital GCS score was 8 (interquartile range, 5-10), 55% had ICH, and 48-hour and 28-day mortality were 7% and 13%, respectively. Poor neurologic outcome at 6 months was observed in 34% based on GOS-E of 4 or less, and 24% based on DRS greater than or equal to7. Addition of each biomarker to PH improved AUC in the majority of predictive models. GFAP+PH compared with PH alone significantly improved AUC in all models (ICH, 0.82 vs. 0.64; 48-hour mortality, 0.84 vs. 0.71; 28-day mortality, 0.84 vs. 0.66; GOS-E, 0.78 vs. 0.69; DRS, 0.84 vs. 0.81, all p < 0.001).ConclusionCirculating blood-based biomarkers may improve prediction of neurological outcomes and mortality in patients with MS-TBI over prehospital characteristics alone. Glial fibrillary acidic protein appears to be the most promising. Future evaluation in the prehospital setting is warranted.Level of evidenceProspective, Prognostic and Epidemiological, level II.
| S-EPMC7311234 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Study objectivesTo explore the relationship between polysomnography-derived respiratory indices and chronic pain status among individuals following traumatic brain injury (TBI).MethodsParticipants (n = 66) with moderate to severe TBI underwent polysomnography during inpatient acute rehabilitation and their chronic pain status was assessed at 1- to 2-year follow-up as part of the TBI Model Systems Pain Collaborative Study. Pairwise comparisons across pain cohorts (ie, chronic pain, no history of pain) were made to explore differences on polysomnography indices.ResultsAmong our total sample, approximately three-quarters (74.2%) received sleep apnea diagnoses utilizing American Academy of Sleep Medicine criteria, with 61.9% of those endorsing a history of chronic pain. Of those endorsing chronic pain, the average pain score was 4.8 (standard deviation = 2.1), with a mean interference score of 5.3 (2.7). Pairwise comparisons revealed that those endorsing a chronic pain experience at follow-up experienced categorically worse indicators of sleep-related breathing disorders during acute rehabilitation relative to those who did not endorse chronic pain. Important differences were observed with elevations on central (chronic pain: 2.6; no pain: 0.8 per hour) and obstructive apnea (chronic pain: 15.7; no pain: 11.1 per hour) events, as well as oxygen desaturation indices (chronic pain: 19.6; no pain: 7.9 per hour).ConclusionsSleep-disordered breathing appears worse among those who endorse chronic pain following moderate-to-severe TBI, but additional research is needed to understand its relation to postinjury pain. Prospective investigation is necessary to determine how clinical decisions (eg, opioid therapy) and intervention (eg, positive airway pressure) may mutually influence outcomes.Clinical trial registrationRegistry: ClinicalTrials.gov; Name: Comparison of Sleep Apnea Assessment Strategies to Maximize TBI Rehabilitation Participation and Outcome (C-SAS); URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03033901; Identifier: NCT03033901.CitationMartin AM, Pinto SM, Tang X, et al. Associations between early sleep-disordered breathing following moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury and long-term chronic pain status: a Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems study. J Clin Sleep Med. 2023;19(1):135-143.
| S-EPMC9806770 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study evaluates the correlation between injuries to deep gray matter nuclei, as quantitated by lesions in these nuclei on MR T2 Fast Spin Echo (T2 FSE) images, with 6-month neurological outcome after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI).Ninety-five patients (80 males, mean age = 36.7y) with severe TBI were prospectively enrolled. All patients underwent a MR scan within the 45 days after the trauma that included a T2 FSE acquisition. A 3D deformable atlas of the deep gray matter was registered to this sequence; deep gray matter lesions (DGML) were evaluated using a semi-quantitative classification scheme. The 6-month outcome was dichotomized into unfavorable (death, vegetative or minimally conscious state) or favorable (minimal or no neurologic deficit) outcome.Sixty-six percent of the patients (63/95) had both satisfactory registration of the 3D atlas on T2 FSE and available clinical follow-up. Patients without DGML had an 89% chance (P = 0.0016) of favorable outcome while those with bilateral DGML had an 80% risk of unfavorable outcome (P = 0.00008). Multivariate analysis based on DGML accurately classified patients with unfavorable neurological outcome in 90.5% of the cases.Lesions in deep gray matter nuclei may predict long-term outcome after severe TBI with high sensitivity and specificity.
| S-EPMC5667824 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceIntracranial pressure (ICP) monitoring is a mainstay of therapy for children with traumatic brain injury (TBI), but its overall association with patient outcome is unclear.ObjectiveTo test the hypothesis that ICP monitoring is associated with improved functional survival of children with severe TBI.Design, setting, and participantsA propensity-weighted effectiveness analysis was conducted using 2 linked national databases with data from 30 US children's hospitals from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2012, on 3084 children with severe TBI. Clinical events including neurosurgical procedures were identified using validated computable phenotypes. Data analysis was conducted from September 1, 2016, to March 1, 2017.ExposurePlacement of an ICP monitor.Main outcomes and measuresA composite of hospital mortality, discharge to hospice, or survival with placement of new tracheostomy and gastrostomy tubes.ResultsOf the 3084 children in the study (1128 girls and 1956 boys; mean [SD] age, 7.03 [5.44] years), 1002 (32.4%) underwent ICP monitoring, with substantial hospital variation (6% to 50% by hospital). Overall, 484 children (15.7%) experienced the primary composite outcome. A propensity approach using matching weights generated good covariate balance between those who did and those who did not undergo ICP monitoring. Using a propensity-weighted logistic regression model clustered by hospital, no statistically significant difference was found in functional survival between monitored and unmonitored patients (odds ratio of poor outcome among those who underwent ICP monitoring, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.99-1.74). In a prespecified secondary analysis, no difference in mortality was found (odds ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.89-1.50). Prespecified subgroup analyses of children younger and older than 2 years of age and among those with unintentional and inflicted (intentional) injuries also showed no difference in outcome with ICP monitoring.Conclusions and relevanceWith the use of linked national data and validated computable phenotypes, no evidence was found of a benefit from ICP monitoring on functional survival of children with severe TBI. Intracranial pressure monitoring is a widely but inconsistently used technology with incompletely demonstrated effectiveness. A large prospective cohort study or randomized trial is needed.
| S-EPMC5710627 | biostudies-literature