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Cumulative weighing of time in intertemporal tradeoffs.

ABSTRACT: We examine preferences for sequences of delayed monetary gains. In the experimental literature, two prominent models have been advanced as psychological descriptions of preferences for sequences. In one model, the instantaneous utilities of the outcomes in a sequence are discounted as a function of their delays, and assembled into a discounted utility of the sequence. In the other model, the accumulated utility of the outcomes in a sequence is considered along with utility or disutility from improvement in outcome utilities and utility or disutility from the spreading of outcome utilities. Drawing on three threads of evidence concerning preferences for sequences of monetary gains, we propose that the accumulated utility of the outcomes in a sequence is traded off against the duration of utility accumulation. In our first experiment, aggregate choice behavior provides qualitative support for the tradeoff model. In three subsequent experiments, one of which incentivized, disaggregate choice behavior provides quantitative support for the tradeoff model in Bayesian model contests. One thread of evidence motivating the tradeoff model is that, when, in the choice between two single dated outcomes, it is conveyed that receiving less sooner means receiving nothing later, preference for receiving more later increases, but when it is conveyed that receiving more later means receiving nothing sooner, preference is left unchanged. Our results show that this asymmetric hidden-zero effect is indeed driven by those supporting the tradeoff model. The tradeoff model also accommodates all remaining evidence on preferences for sequences of monetary gains.

SUBMITTER: Scholten M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4998108 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cumulative weighing of time in intertemporal tradeoffs.

Scholten Marc M Read Daniel D Sanborn Adam A

Journal of experimental psychology. General 20160901 9

We examine preferences for sequences of delayed monetary gains. In the experimental literature, two prominent models have been advanced as psychological descriptions of preferences for sequences. In one model, the instantaneous utilities of the outcomes in a sequence are discounted as a function of their delays, and assembled into a discounted utility of the sequence. In the other model, the accumulated utility of the outcomes in a sequence is considered along with utility or disutility from imp ...[more]

PMID: 27560853

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Project description:Our mental representation of the passage of time is structured by concepts of spatial motion, including an ego-moving perspective in which the self is perceived as approaching future events and a time-moving perspective in which future events are perceived as approaching the self. While previous research has found that processing spatial information in one's environment can preferentially activate either an ego-moving or time-moving temporal perspective, potential downstream impacts on everyday decision-making have received less empirical attention. Based on the idea people may feel closer to positive events they see themselves as actively approaching rather than passively waiting for, in this pre-registered study we tested the hypothesis that spatial primes corresponding to an ego-moving (vs. time-moving) perspective would attenuate temporal discounting by making future rewards feel more proximal. 599 participants were randomly assigned to one of three spatial prime conditions (ego-moving, time-moving, control) resembling map-based tasks people may engage with on digital devices, before completing measures of temporal perspective, perceived wait time, perceived control over time, and temporal discounting. Partly consistent with previous research, the results indicated that the time-moving prime successfully activated the intended temporal perspective-though the ego-moving prime did not. Contrary to our primary hypotheses, the spatial primes had no effect on either perceived wait time or temporal discounting. Processing spatial information in a map-based task therefore appears to influence how people conceptualise the passage of time, but there was no evidence for downstream effects on intertemporal preferences. Additionally, exploratory analysis indicated that greater perceived control over time was associated with lower temporal discounting, mediated by a reduction in perceived wait time, suggesting a possible area for future research into individual differences and interventions in intertemporal decision-making.

Dataset Information

Cumulative weighing of time in intertemporal tradeoffs.

Publications

Cumulative weighing of time in intertemporal tradeoffs.

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