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Relationship of Predicted Risk of Developing Invasive Breast Cancer, as Assessed with Three Models, and Breast Cancer Mortality among Breast Cancer Patients.

ABSTRACT: Breast cancer risk prediction models are used to plan clinical trials and counsel women; however, relationships of predicted risks of breast cancer incidence and prognosis after breast cancer diagnosis are unknown.Using largely pre-diagnostic information from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) for 37,939 invasive breast cancers (1996-2007), we estimated 5-year breast cancer risk (<1%; 1-1.66%; ?1.67%) with three models: BCSC 1-year risk model (BCSC-1; adapted to 5-year predictions); Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT); and BCSC 5-year risk model (BCSC-5). Breast cancer-specific mortality post-diagnosis (range: 1-13 years; median: 5.4-5.6 years) was related to predicted risk of developing breast cancer using unadjusted Cox proportional hazards models, and in age-stratified (35-44; 45-54; 55-69; 70-89 years) models adjusted for continuous age, BCSC registry, calendar period, income, mode of presentation, stage and treatment. Mean age at diagnosis was 60 years.Of 6,021 deaths, 2,993 (49.7%) were ascribed to breast cancer. In unadjusted case-only analyses, predicted breast cancer risk ?1.67% versus <1.0% was associated with lower risk of breast cancer death; BCSC-1: hazard ratio (HR) = 0.82 (95% CI = 0.75-0.90); BCRAT: HR = 0.72 (95% CI = 0.65-0.81) and BCSC-5: HR = 0.84 (95% CI = 0.75-0.94). Age-stratified, adjusted models showed similar, although mostly non-significant HRs. Among women ages 55-69 years, HRs approximated 1.0. Generally, higher predicted risk was inversely related to percentages of cancers with unfavorable prognostic characteristics, especially among women 35-44 years.Among cases assessed with three models, higher predicted risk of developing breast cancer was not associated with greater risk of breast cancer death; thus, these models would have limited utility in planning studies to evaluate breast cancer mortality reduction strategies. Further, when offering women counseling, it may be useful to note that high predicted risk of developing breast cancer does not imply that if cancer develops it will behave aggressively.

SUBMITTER: Sherman ME

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4999085 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Relationship of Predicted Risk of Developing Invasive Breast Cancer, as Assessed with Three Models, and Breast Cancer Mortality among Breast Cancer Patients.

Sherman Mark E ME Ichikawa Laura L Pfeiffer Ruth M RM Miglioretti Diana L DL Kerlikowske Karla K Tice Jeffery J Vacek Pamela M PM Gierach Gretchen L GL

PloS one 20160825 8

<h4>Purpose</h4>Breast cancer risk prediction models are used to plan clinical trials and counsel women; however, relationships of predicted risks of breast cancer incidence and prognosis after breast cancer diagnosis are unknown.<h4>Methods</h4>Using largely pre-diagnostic information from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) for 37,939 invasive breast cancers (1996-2007), we estimated 5-year breast cancer risk (<1%; 1-1.66%; ≥1.67%) with three models: BCSC 1-year risk model (BCSC-1 ...[more]

PMID: 27560501

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Project description:BackgroundThe percentage of cells staining positive for Ki67 is sometimes used for decision-making in patients with early invasive breast cancer (IBC). However, there is uncertainty regarding the most appropriate Ki67 cut points and the influence of interlaboratory measurement variability. We examined the relationship between breast cancer mortality and Ki67 both before and after accounting for interlaboratory variability and 8 patient and tumor characteristics.MethodsA multicenter cohort study of women with early IBC diagnosed during 2009-2016 in more than 20 NHS hospitals in England and followed until December 31, 2020.ResultsKi67 was strongly prognostic of breast cancer mortality in 8212 women with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative early IBC (Ptrend < .001). This relationship remained strong after adjustment for patient and tumor characteristics (Ptrend < .001). Standardization for interlaboratory variability did little to alter these results. For women with Ki67 scores of 0%-5%, 6%-10%, 11%-19%, and 20%-29% the corresponding 8-year adjusted cumulative breast cancer mortality risks were 3.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.8% to 4.0%), 3.7% (95% CI = 3.0% to 4.4%), 3.4% (95% CI = 2.8% to 4.1%), and 3.4% (95% CI = 2.8% to 4.1%), whereas for women with Ki67 scores of 30%-39% and 40%-100%, these risks were higher, at 5.1% (95% CI = 4.3% to 6.2%) and 7.7% (95% CI = 6.6% to 9.1) (Ptrend < .001). Similar results were obtained when the adjusted analysis was repeated with omission of pathological information about tumor size and nodal involvement, which would not be available preoperatively for patients being considered for neoadjuvant therapy.ConclusionOur findings confirm the prognostic value of Ki67 scores of 30% or more in women with ER-positive, HER2-negative early IBC, irrespective of interlaboratory variability. These results also suggest that Ki67 may be useful to aid decision-making in the neoadjuvant setting.

Dataset Information

Relationship of Predicted Risk of Developing Invasive Breast Cancer, as Assessed with Three Models, and Breast Cancer Mortality among Breast Cancer Patients.

Publications

Relationship of Predicted Risk of Developing Invasive Breast Cancer, as Assessed with Three Models, and Breast Cancer Mortality among Breast Cancer Patients.

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