Dataset Information

An Ecological Assessment of the Pandemic Threat of Zika Virus.

ABSTRACT: The current outbreak of Zika virus poses a severe threat to human health. While the range of the virus has been cataloged growing slowly over the last 50 years, the recent explosive expansion in the Americas indicates that the full potential distribution of Zika remains uncertain. Moreover, many studies rely on its similarity to dengue fever, a phylogenetically closely related disease of unknown ecological comparability. Here we compile a comprehensive spatially-explicit occurrence dataset from Zika viral surveillance and serological surveys based in its native range, and construct ecological niche models to test basic hypotheses about its spread and potential establishment. The hypothesis that the outbreak of cases in Mexico and North America are anomalous and outside the native ecological niche of the disease, and may be linked to either genetic shifts between strains, or El Nino or similar climatic events, remains plausible at this time. Comparison of the Zika niche against the known distribution of dengue fever suggests that Zika is more constrained by the seasonality of precipitation and diurnal temperature fluctuations, likely confining autochthonous non-sexual transmission to the tropics without significant evolutionary change. Projecting the range of the diseases in conjunction with three major vector species (Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, and Ae. albopictus) that transmit the pathogens, under climate change, suggests that Zika has potential for northward expansion; but, based on current knowledge, our models indicate Zika is unlikely to fill the full range its vectors occupy, and public fear of a vector-borne Zika epidemic in the mainland United States is potentially informed by biased or limited scientific knowledge. With recent sexual transmission of the virus globally, we caution that our results only apply to the vector-borne transmission route of the pathogen, and while the threat of a mosquito-carried Zika pandemic may be overstated in the media, other transmission modes of the virus may emerge and facilitate naturalization worldwide.

SUBMITTER: Carlson CJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5001720 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An Ecological Assessment of the Pandemic Threat of Zika Virus.

Carlson Colin J CJ Dougherty Eric R ER Getz Wayne W

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20160826 8

The current outbreak of Zika virus poses a severe threat to human health. While the range of the virus has been cataloged growing slowly over the last 50 years, the recent explosive expansion in the Americas indicates that the full potential distribution of Zika remains uncertain. Moreover, many studies rely on its similarity to dengue fever, a phylogenetically closely related disease of unknown ecological comparability. Here we compile a comprehensive spatially-explicit occurrence dataset from ...[more]

PMID: 27564232

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Project description:The Payra river is one of the large coastal rivers in Bangladesh which supports incredible fish species and has been affected by extensive human disturbance due to huge fishing pressure. The present study provides information about the temporal diversity of finfish and shellfish concerning climatological variables and ecological pollution along with threat assessment in the Payra river, Bangladesh. During the entire study, a total of 61 species including 56 finfish and 5 shellfish species were recorded under 22 families belonging to 11 orders. The order-wise fish species availability showed that the Perciformes (29.49%) was the dominant order based on species richness. Among them, 4 endangered, 6 vulnerable, 4 near threatened, 42 least concern, and 5 data deficient species were found. During the study period, the average Shannon-Weaver diversity index value was (3.33 ± 0.12) indicating a good spread of fish population in the Payra river. Average Margalef richness index value was found (7.60 ± 0.32), Pielou's evenness index (0.48 ± 0.05), and Simpson dominance index (0.93 ± 0.02) in the Payra river. The dominance and Richness index value indicates a clear water environment with slight pollution in the Payra river. Ten different kinds of fishing gears were identified under 3 major groups including 5 nets, 3 hooks and lines, and 2 traps. Canonical correspondence analysis ordination plot showed that rainfall was the most influencing driving force among the meteorological parameters. The cluster analysis based on the Bray-Curtis similarity matrix showed that the winter season formed a separate cluster. In the recapitulation, the Payra river is a highly productive system that provides a favorable environment for a large variety of finfish and shellfish species assemblages. The findings of the conducted study are expected to be helpful for the respective researchers, policymakers, managers, and conservationists for the sustainable management of this water body and the interconnected surrounding neighboring countries.

Dataset Information

An Ecological Assessment of the Pandemic Threat of Zika Virus.

Publications

An Ecological Assessment of the Pandemic Threat of Zika Virus.

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