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Critically evaluating the theory and performance of Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures.

ABSTRACT: Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures (BAMM) has recently taken the study of lineage diversification by storm. BAMM estimates the diversification-rate parameters (speciation and extinction) for every branch of a study phylogeny and infers the number and location of diversification-rate shifts across branches of a tree. Our evaluation of BAMM reveals two major theoretical errors: (i) the likelihood function (which estimates the model parameters from the data) is incorrect, and (ii) the compound Poisson process prior model (which describes the prior distribution of diversification-rate shifts across branches) is incoherent. Using simulation, we demonstrate that these theoretical issues cause statistical pathologies; posterior estimates of the number of diversification-rate shifts are strongly influenced by the assumed prior, and estimates of diversification-rate parameters are unreliable. Moreover, the inability to correctly compute the likelihood or to correctly specify the prior for rate-variable trees precludes the use of Bayesian approaches for testing hypotheses regarding the number and location of diversification-rate shifts using BAMM.

SUBMITTER: Moore BR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5003228 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Critically evaluating the theory and performance of Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures.

Moore Brian R BR Höhna Sebastian S May Michael R MR Rannala Bruce B Huelsenbeck John P JP

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20160810 34

Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures (BAMM) has recently taken the study of lineage diversification by storm. BAMM estimates the diversification-rate parameters (speciation and extinction) for every branch of a study phylogeny and infers the number and location of diversification-rate shifts across branches of a tree. Our evaluation of BAMM reveals two major theoretical errors: (i) the likelihood function (which estimates the model parameters from the data) is incorrect, and (ii) the ...[more]

PMID: 27512038

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Project description:IntroductionRice plays a critical role in human livelihoods and food security. However, its cultivation requires inputs that are not accessible to all farming communities and can have negative effects on ecosystems. simultaneously, ecological research demonstrates that biodiversity management within fields contributes to ecosystem functioning.MethodsThis study aims to evaluate the mixture effect of four functionally distinct rice varieties in terms of characteristics and agronomic performance and their spatial arrangement on the upland rice performance in the highlands of Madagascar. The study was conducted during the 2021-2022 rainfall season at two close sites in Madagascar. Both site differ from each other's in soil properties and soil fertility management. The experimental design at each site included three modalities: i) plot composition, i.e., pure stand or binary mixture; ii) the balance between the varieties within a mixture; iii) and for the balanced mixture (50% of each variety), the spatial arrangement, i.e., row or checkerboard patterns. Data were collected on yields (grain and biomass), and resistance to Striga asiatica infestation, Pyricularia oryzea and bacterial leaf blight (BLB) caused by Xanthomonas oryzae-pv from each plot.Results and discussionVarietal mixtures produced significantly higher grain and biomass yields, and significantly lower incidence of Pyricularia oryzea compared to pure stands. No significant differences were observed for BLB and striga infestation. These effects were influenced by site fertility, the less fertilized site showed stronger mixture effects with greater gains in grain yield (60%) and biomass yield (42%). The most unbalanced repartition (75% and 25% of each variety) showed the greatest mixture effect for grain yield at both sites, with a strong impact of the varietal identity within the plot. The mixture was most effective when EARLY_MUTANT_IAC_165 constituted 75% of the density associated with other varieties at 25% density. The assessment of the net effect ratio of disease, an index evaluating the mixture effect in disease reduction, indicated improved disease resistance in mixtures, regardless of site conditions. Our study in limited environments suggests that varietal mixtures can enhance rice productivity, especially in low-input situations. Further research is needed to understand the ecological mechanisms behind the positive mixture effect.

Project description:BackgroundThe selection of hybrids is an essential step in maize breeding. However, evaluating a large number of hybrids in field trials can be extremely costly. However, genomic models can be used to predict the expected performance of un-tested genotypes. Bayesian models offer a very flexible framework for hybrid prediction. The Bayesian methodology can be used with parametric and semi-parametric assumptions for additive and non-additive effects. Furthermore, samples from the posterior distribution of Bayesian models can be used to estimate the variance due to general and specific combining abilities even in cases where additive and non-additive effects are not mutually orthogonal. Also, the use of Bayesian models for analysis and prediction of hybrid performance has remained fairly limited.ResultsWe provided an overview of Bayesian parametric and semi-parametric genomic models for prediction of agronomic traits in maize hybrids and discussed how these models can be used to decompose the genotypic variance into components due to general and specific combining ability. We applied the methodology to data from 906 single cross tropical maize hybrids derived from a convergent population. Our results show that: (1) non-additive effects make a sizable contribution to the genetic variance of grain yield; however, the relative importance of non-additive effects was much smaller for ear and plant height; (2) genomic prediction can achieve relatively high accuracy in predicting phenotypes of un-tested hybrids and in pre-screening.ConclusionsGenomic prediction can be a useful tool in pre-screening of hybrids and could contribute to the improvement of the efficiency and efficacy of maize hybrids breeding programs. The Bayesian framework offers a great deal of flexibility in modeling hybrid performance. The methodology can be used to estimate important genetic parameters and render predictions of the expected hybrid performance as well measures of uncertainty about such predictions.

Dataset Information

Critically evaluating the theory and performance of Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures.

Publications

Critically evaluating the theory and performance of Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures.

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