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Inferring extinction in North American and Hawaiian birds in the presence of sighting uncertainty.

ABSTRACT: For most species the timing of extinction events is uncertain, occurring sometime after the last sighting. However, the sightings themselves may also be uncertain. Recently a number of methods have been developed that incorporate sighting uncertainty in the inference of extinction based on a series of sightings. Here we estimate the timing of extinction for 41 of 52 North American and Hawaiian bird taxa and populations, the results of which suggest all became extinct before 2009. By acknowledging sighting uncertainty it results in two opposite effects, one pushing the timing of extinction away from the last sighting and the other drawing the timing of extinction nearer to it. However, for 14 assessed taxa and populations the upper 95% bounds lie beyond the end of the observation period and therefore suggest the possibility of continued persistence. This has important implications for conservation decision-makers and potentially reduces the likelihood of Romeo's Error.

SUBMITTER: Roberts DL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5012411 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Inferring extinction in North American and Hawaiian birds in the presence of sighting uncertainty.

Roberts David L DL Jarić Ivan I

PeerJ 20160901

For most species the timing of extinction events is uncertain, occurring sometime after the last sighting. However, the sightings themselves may also be uncertain. Recently a number of methods have been developed that incorporate sighting uncertainty in the inference of extinction based on a series of sightings. Here we estimate the timing of extinction for 41 of 52 North American and Hawaiian bird taxa and populations, the results of which suggest all became extinct before 2009. By acknowledgin ...[more]

PMID: 27635365

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Project description:The phylogenies of allopolyploids take the shape of networks and cannot be adequately represented as bifurcating trees. Especially for high polyploids (i.e., organisms with more than six sets of nuclear chromosomes), the signatures of gene homoeolog loss, deep coalescence, and polyploidy may become confounded, with the result that gene trees may be congruent with more than one species network. Herein, we obtained the most parsimonious species network by objective comparison of competing scenarios involving polyploidization and homoeolog loss in a high-polyploid lineage of violets (Viola, Violaceae) mostly or entirely restricted to North America, Central America, or Hawaii. We amplified homoeologs of the low-copy nuclear gene, glucose-6-phosphate isomerase (GPI), by single-molecule polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and the chloroplast trnL-F region by conventional PCR for 51 species and subspecies. Topological incongruence among GPI homoeolog subclades, owing to deep coalescence and two instances of putative loss (or lack of detection) of homoeologs, were reconciled by applying the maximum tree topology for each subclade. The most parsimonious species network and the fossil-based calibration of the homoeolog tree favored monophyly of the high polyploids, which has resulted from allodecaploidization 9-14 Ma, involving sympatric ancestors from the extant Viola sections Chamaemelanium (diploid), Plagiostigma (paleotetraploid), and Viola (paleotetraploid). Although two of the high-polyploid lineages (Boreali-Americanae, Pedatae) remained decaploid, recurrent polyploidization with tetraploids of section Plagiostigma within the last 5 Ma has resulted in two 14-ploid lineages (Mexicanae, Nosphinium) and one 18-ploid lineage (Langsdorffianae). This implies a more complex phylogenetic and biogeographic origin of the Hawaiian violets (Nosphinium) than that previously inferred from rDNA data and illustrates the necessity of considering polyploidy in phylogenetic and biogeographic reconstruction.

Dataset Information

Inferring extinction in North American and Hawaiian birds in the presence of sighting uncertainty.

Publications

Inferring extinction in North American and Hawaiian birds in the presence of sighting uncertainty.

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