Dataset Information

Prediction of Low Community Sanitation Coverage Using Environmental and Sociodemographic Factors in Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

ABSTRACT: This study developed and validated a model for predicting the probability that communities in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, have low sanitation coverage, based on environmental and sociodemographic conditions. Community sanitation coverage was measured between 2011 and 2014 through trachoma control program evaluation surveys. Information on environmental and sociodemographic conditions was obtained from available data sources and linked with community data using a geographic information system. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of low community sanitation coverage (< 20% versus ? 20%). The selected model was geographically and temporally validated. Model-predicted probabilities of low community sanitation coverage were mapped. Among 1,502 communities, 344 (22.90%) had coverage below 20%. The selected model included measures for high topsoil gravel content, an indicator for low-lying land, population density, altitude, and rainfall and had reasonable predictive discrimination (area under the curve = 0.75, 95% confidence interval = 0.72, 0.78). Measures of soil stability were strongly associated with low community sanitation coverage, controlling for community wealth, and other factors. A model using available environmental and sociodemographic data predicted low community sanitation coverage for areas across Amhara Region with fair discrimination. This approach could assist sanitation programs and trachoma control programs, scaling up or in hyperendemic areas, to target vulnerable areas with additional activities or alternate technologies.

SUBMITTER: Oswald WE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5014283 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of Low Community Sanitation Coverage Using Environmental and Sociodemographic Factors in Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

Oswald William E WE Stewart Aisha E P AE Flanders W Dana WD Kramer Michael R MR Endeshaw Tekola T Zerihun Mulat M Melaku Birhanu B Sata Eshetu E Gessesse Demelash D Teferi Tesfaye T Tadesse Zerihun Z Guadie Birhan B King Jonathan D JD Emerson Paul M PM Callahan Elizabeth K EK Moe Christine L CL Clasen Thomas F TF

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 20160718 3

This study developed and validated a model for predicting the probability that communities in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, have low sanitation coverage, based on environmental and sociodemographic conditions. Community sanitation coverage was measured between 2011 and 2014 through trachoma control program evaluation surveys. Information on environmental and sociodemographic conditions was obtained from available data sources and linked with community data using a geographic information system. Logis ...[more]

PMID: 27430547

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Project description:BackgroundGlobally there are over 1,400 cases of pneumonia per 100,000 children every year, where children in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are disproportionately affected. Some of the cases develop poor treatment outcome (treatment failure or antibiotic change or staying longer in the hospital or death), while others develop good outcome during interventions. Although clinical decision-making is a key aspect of the interventions, there are limited tools such as risk scores to assist the clinical judgment in low-income settings. This study aimed to validate a prediction model and develop risk scores for poor outcomes of severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP).MethodsA cohort study was conducted among 539 under-five children hospitalized with SCAP. Data analysis was done using R version 4.0.5 software. A multivariable analysis was done. We developed a simplified risk score to facilitate clinical utility. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plot. Bootstrapping was used to validate all accuracy measures. A decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical and public health utility of our model.ResultsThe incidence of poor outcomes of pneumonia was 151(28%) (95%CI: 24.2%-31.8%). Vaccination status, fever, pallor, unable to breastfeed, impaired consciousness, CBC abnormal, entered ICU, and vomiting remained in the reduced model. The AUC of the original model was 0.927, 95% (CI (0.90, 0.96), whereas the risk score model produced prediction accuracy of an AUC of 0.89 (95%CI: 0.853-0.922. Our decision curve analysis for the model provides a higher net benefit across ranges of threshold probabilities.ConclusionsOur model has excellent discrimination and calibration performance. Similarly, the risk score model has excellent discrimination and calibration ability with an insignificant loss of accuracy from the original. The models can have the potential to improve care and treatment outcomes in the clinical settings.

Project description:Trachoma is chronic kerato conjunctivitis, which is caused by repeated infection with Chlamydia trachomatis bacterium. It is hyper endemic in many rural areas of Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to measure the effect of water, sanitation and hygiene interventions on active trachoma in selected woredas of North and South Wollo zones of Amhara Region, Ethiopia.A community based quasi-experimental study was conducted from October 2014 to December 2015 among children aged 1-8 years at baseline and among one year older same children after intervention. A four-stage random cluster-sampling technique was employed to select study participants. From each selected household, one child was clinically assessed for active trachoma. Structured questionnaire was used to collect socio demographic and behavioral data. MacNemar test was applied to compare the prevalence of active trachoma between baseline and after the intervention period at both intervention and non-intervention study areas.The prevalence of active trachoma was reduced from baseline prevalence of 26% to 18% after one-year intervention period in the intervention woredas (P?0.001). MacNemar test result showed significant reduction of active trachoma prevalence after the intervention period in the intervention woredas compared to the non-intervention woredas (P?0.001). Water, sanitation and hygiene related activities were significantly improved after the intervention period in the intervention woredas (P<0.05).There was a significant reduction of active trachoma prevalence between the baseline and after the intervention period in the intervention woredas, but not in the non-intervention ones. Improved water, sanitation and hygiene interventions contributed to the reduction of active trachoma. However, the magnitude of active trachoma prevalence observed after the intervention is still very high in the studied areas of North and South Wollo Zones communities. To achieve the global trachoma elimination target by the year 2020 as set by the WHO, continued WaSH interventions and periodic monitoring, evaluation and reporting of the impact of WaSH on active trachoma is warranted.

Project description:BackgroundUse of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), community-based malaria education, prompt diagnosis and treatment are key programme components of malaria prevention and control in Ethiopia. However, the effectiveness of these interventions is often undermined by various challenges, including insecticide and drug resistance, the plasticity of malaria vectors feeding and biting behaviour, and certain household factors that lead to misuse and poor utilization of LLINs. The primary objective of this study was to document households' perceptions towards malaria and assess the prevalence of the disease and the constraints related to the ongoing interventions in Ethiopia (LLINs, IRS, community mobilization house screening).MethodsThe study was conducted in Jabi Tehnan district, Northwestern Ethiopia, from November 2019 to March 2020. A total of 3010 households from 38 villages were randomly selected for socio-economic and demographic survey. Focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted in 11 different health clusters considering agro-ecological differences. A total of 1256 children under 10 years of age were screened for malaria parasites using microscopy to determine malaria prevalence. Furthermore, 5-year malaria trend analysis was undertaken based on data obtained from the district health office to understand the disease dynamics.ResultsMalaria knowledge in the area was high as all FGD participants correctly identified mosquito bites during the night as sources of malaria transmission. Delayed health-seeking behaviour remains a key behavioural challenge in malaria control as it took patients on average 4 days before reporting the case at the nearby health facility. On average, households lost 2.53 working days per person-per malaria episode and they spent US$ 18 per person per episode. Out of the 1256 randomly selected under 10 children tested for malaria parasites, 11 (0.89%) were found to be positive. Malaria disproportionately affected the adult segment of the population more, with 50% of the total cases reported from households being from among individuals who were 15 years or older. The second most affected group was the age group between 5 and 14 years followed by children aged under 5, with 31% and 14% burden, respectively.ConclusionDespite the achievement of universal coverage in terms of LLINs access, utilization of vector control interventions in the area remained low. Using bed nets for unintended purposes remained a major challenge. Therefore, continued community education and communication work should be prioritized in the study area to bring about the desired behavioural changes.

Project description:BackgroundTrachoma recrudescence after elimination as a public health problem has been reached is a concern for control programs globally. Programs typically conduct district-level trachoma surveillance surveys (TSS) ≥ 2 years after the elimination threshold is achieved to determine whether the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) among children ages 1 to 9 years remains <5%. Many TSS are resulting in a TF prevalence ≥5%. Once a district returns to TF ≥5%, a program typically restarts costly mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns and surveys at least twice, for impact and another TSS. In Amhara, Ethiopia, most TSS which result in a TF ≥5% have a prevalence close to 5%, making it difficult to determine whether the result is due to true recrudescence or to statistical variability. This study's aim was to monitor recrudescence within Amhara by waiting to restart MDA within 2 districts with a TF prevalence ≥5% at TSS, Metema = 5.2% and Woreta Town = 5.1%. The districts were resurveyed 1 year later using traditional and alternative indicators, such as measures of infection and serology, a "wait and watch" approach.Methods/principal findingsThese post-surveillance surveys, conducted in 2021, were multi-stage cluster surveys whereby certified graders assessed trachoma signs. Children ages 1 to 9 years provided a dried blood spot and children ages 1 to 5 years provided a conjunctival swab. TF prevalence in Metema and Woreta Town were 3.6% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]:1.4-6.4) and 2.5% (95% CI:0.8-4.5) respectively. Infection prevalence was 1.2% in Woreta Town and 0% in Metema. Seroconversion rates to Pgp3 in Metema and Woreta Town were 0.4 (95% CI:0.2-0.7) seroconversions per 100 child-years and 0.9 (95% CI:0.6-1.5) respectively.Conclusions/significanceBoth study districts had a TF prevalence <5% with low levels of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and transmission, and thus MDA interventions are no longer warranted. The wait and watch approach represents a surveillance strategy which could lead to fewer MDA campaigns and surveys and thus cost savings with reduced antibiotic usage.

Dataset Information

Prediction of Low Community Sanitation Coverage Using Environmental and Sociodemographic Factors in Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

Publications

Prediction of Low Community Sanitation Coverage Using Environmental and Sociodemographic Factors in Amhara Region, Ethiopia.

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