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Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming.

ABSTRACT: Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.

SUBMITTER: Jarvis L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5016634 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming.

Jarvis Lauren L McCann Kevin K Tunney Tyler T Gellner Gabriel G Fryxell John M JM

Ecology and evolution 20160729 17

Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning sign ...[more]

PMID: 27648228

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