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Multivariable fractional polynomial interaction to investigate continuous effect modifiers in a meta-analysis on higher versus lower PEEP for patients with ARDS.

ABSTRACT: A recent individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis suggested that patients with moderate or severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) benefit from higher positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) ventilation strategies. However, thresholds for continuous variables (eg, hypoxaemia) are often arbitrary and linearity assumptions in regression approaches may not hold; the multivariable fractional polynomial interaction (MFPI) approach can address both problems. The objective of this study was to apply the MFPI approach to investigate interactions between four continuous patient baseline variables and higher versus lower PEEP on clinical outcomes.Pooled data from three randomised trials in intensive care identified by a systematic review.2299 patients with acute lung injury requiring mechanical ventilation.Higher (N=1136) versus lower PEEP (N=1163) ventilation strategy.Prespecified outcomes included mortality, time to death and time-to-unassisted breathing. We examined the following continuous baseline characteristics as potential effect modifiers using MFPI: PaO2/FiO2 (arterial partial oxygen pressure/ fraction of inspired oxygen), oxygenation index, respiratory system compliance (tidal volume/(inspiratory plateau pressure-PEEP)) and body mass index (BMI).We found that for patients with PaO2/FiO2 below 150?mm?Hg, but above 100?mm?Hg or an oxygenation index above 12 (moderate ARDS), higher PEEP reduces hospital mortality, but the beneficial effect appears to level off for patients with very severe ARDS. Patients with mild ARDS (PaO2/FiO2 above 200?mm?Hg or an oxygenation index below 10) do not seem to benefit from higher PEEP and might even be harmed. For patients with a respiratory system compliance above 40?mL/cm?H2O or patients with a BMI above 35?kg/m(2), we found a trend towards reduced mortality with higher PEEP, but there is very weak statistical confidence in these findings.MFPI analyses suggest a nonlinear effect modification of higher PEEP ventilation by PaO2/FiO2 and oxygenation index with reduced mortality for some patients suffering from moderate ARDS.CRD42012003129.

SUBMITTER: Kasenda B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5020750 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Multivariable fractional polynomial interaction to investigate continuous effect modifiers in a meta-analysis on higher versus lower PEEP for patients with ARDS.

Kasenda Benjamin B Sauerbrei Willi W Royston Patrick P Mercat Alain A Slutsky Arthur S AS Cook Deborah D Guyatt Gordon H GH Brochard Laurent L Richard Jean-Christophe M JC Stewart Thomas E TE Meade Maureen M Briel Matthias M

BMJ open 20160908 9

<h4>Objectives</h4>A recent individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis suggested that patients with moderate or severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) benefit from higher positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) ventilation strategies. However, thresholds for continuous variables (eg, hypoxaemia) are often arbitrary and linearity assumptions in regression approaches may not hold; the multivariable fractional polynomial interaction (MFPI) approach can address both problems. The objecti ...[more]

PMID: 27609843

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Project description:BackgroundThe multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) approach combines variable selection using backward elimination with a function selection procedure (FSP) for fractional polynomial (FP) functions. It is a relatively simple approach which can be easily understood without advanced training in statistical modeling. For continuous variables, a closed test procedure is used to decide between no effect, linear, FP1, or FP2 functions. Influential points (IPs) and small sample sizes can both have a strong impact on a selected function and MFP model.MethodsWe used simulated data with six continuous and four categorical predictors to illustrate approaches which can help to identify IPs with an influence on function selection and the MFP model. Approaches use leave-one or two-out and two related techniques for a multivariable assessment. In eight subsamples, we also investigated the effects of sample size and model replicability, the latter by using three non-overlapping subsamples with the same sample size. For better illustration, a structured profile was used to provide an overview of all analyses conducted.ResultsThe results showed that one or more IPs can drive the functions and models selected. In addition, with a small sample size, MFP was not able to detect some non-linear functions and the selected model differed substantially from the true underlying model. However, when the sample size was relatively large and regression diagnostics were carefully conducted, MFP selected functions or models that were similar to the underlying true model.ConclusionsFor smaller sample size, IPs and low power are important reasons that the MFP approach may not be able to identify underlying functional relationships for continuous variables and selected models might differ substantially from the true model. However, for larger sample sizes, a carefully conducted MFP analysis is often a suitable way to select a multivariable regression model which includes continuous variables. In such a case, MFP can be the preferred approach to derive a multivariable descriptive model.

Project description:BackgroundMortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remains high. These patients require mechanical ventilation strategies that include high positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP). It remains controversial whether high PEEP can improve outcomes for ARDS patients, especially patients who show improvement in oxygenation in response to PEEP. In this meta-analysis, we aimed to evaluate the effects of high PEEP on ARDS patients.MethodsWe electronically searched randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reported in the MEDLINE, CENTRAL, EMBASE, CINAHL and Web of Science databases from January 1990 to December 2017. Meta-analyses of the effects of PEEP on survival in adults with ARDS were conducted using the methods recommended by the Cochrane Collaboration.ResultsA total of 3612 patients from nine randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were included. There were 1794 and 1818 patients in the high and low PEEP groups, respectively. Hospital mortality showed no significant difference between the high and low PEEP groups (RR = 0.92; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.07; P = 0.26). Similar results were found for 28-d mortality (RR = 0.88; 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.07; P = 0.19) and ICU mortality (RR = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.65 to 1.07; P = 0.15). The risk of clinically objectified barotrauma was not significantly different between the high and low PEEP groups (RR = 1.24; 95% CI, 0.74 to 2.09, P = 0.41). In the subgroup of ARDS patients who responded to increased PEEP by improved oxygenation (from 6 RCTs), high PEEP significantly reduced hospital mortality (RR = 0.83; 95% CI 0.69 to 0.98; P = 0.03), ICU mortality (RR = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.98; P = 0.04),but the 28-d mortality was not decreased(RR = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.67 to 1.01; P = 0.07). For ARDS patients in the low PEEP group who received a PEEP level lower than 10 cmH2O (from 6 RCTs), ICU mortality was lower in the high PEEP group than the low PEEP group (RR = 0.65; 95% CI, 0.45 to 0.94; P = 0.02).ConclusionsFor ARDS patients who responded to increased PEEP by improved oxygenation, high PEEP could reduce hospital mortality, ICU mortality and 28-d mortality. High PEEP does not increase the risk of clinically objectified barotrauma.

Project description:BackgroundEfficacy and safety of different hemoglobin thresholds for transfusion of red blood cells (RBCs) in adults with an acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are unknown. We therefore assessed the effect of two transfusion thresholds on short-term outcome in patients with ARDS.MethodsPatients who received transfusions of RBCs were identified from a cohort of 1044 ARDS patients. After propensity score matching, patients transfused at a hemoglobin concentration of 8 g/dl or less (lower-threshold) were compared to patients transfused at a hemoglobin concentration of 10 g/dl or less (higher-threshold). The primary endpoint was 28-day mortality. Secondary endpoints included ECMO-free, ventilator-free, sedation-free, and organ dysfunction-free composites.Measurements and main resultsOne hundred ninety-two patients were eligible for analysis of the matched cohort. Patients in the lower-threshold group had similar baseline characteristics and hemoglobin levels at ARDS onset but received fewer RBC units and had lower hemoglobin levels compared with the higher-threshold group during the course on the ICU (9.1 [IQR, 8.7-9.7] vs. 10.4 [10-11] g/dl, P < 0.001). There was no difference in 28-day mortality between the lower-threshold group compared with the higher-threshold group (hazard ratio, 0.94 [95%-CI, 0.59-1.48], P = 0.78). Within 28 days, 36.5% (95%-CI, 27.0-46.9) of the patients in the lower-threshold group compared with 39.5% (29.9-50.1) of the patients in the higher-threshold group had died. While there were no differences in ECMO-free, sedation-free, and organ dysfunction-free composites, the chance for successful weaning from mechanical ventilation within 28 days after ARDS onset was lower in the lower-threshold group (subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.36 [95%-CI, 0.15-0.86], P = 0.02).ConclusionsTransfusion at a hemoglobin concentration of 8 g/dl, as compared with a hemoglobin concentration of 10 g/dl, was not associated with an increase in 28-day mortality in adults with ARDS. However, a transfusion at a hemoglobin concentration of 8 g/dl was associated with a lower chance for successful weaning from the ventilator during the first 28 days after ARDS onset.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT03871166.

Project description:BackgroundIn ARDS, the PEEP level associated with the best respiratory system compliance is often selected; however, intra-tidal recruitment can increase compliance, falsely suggesting improvement in baseline mechanics. Tidal lung hysteresis increases with intra-tidal recruitment and can help interpreting changes in compliance. This study aims to assess tidal recruitment in ARDS patients and to test a combined approach, based on tidal hysteresis and compliance, to interpret decremental PEEP trials.MethodsA decremental PEEP trial was performed in 38 COVID-19 moderate to severe ARDS patients. At each step, we performed a low-flow inflation-deflation manoeuvre between PEEP and a constant plateau pressure, to measure tidal hysteresis and compliance.ResultsAccording to changes of tidal hysteresis, three typical patterns were observed: 10 (26%) patients showed consistently high tidal-recruitment, 12 (32%) consistently low tidal-recruitment and 16 (42%) displayed a biphasic pattern moving from low to high tidal-recruitment below a certain PEEP. Compliance increased after 82% of PEEP step decreases and this was associated to a large increase of tidal hysteresis in 44% of cases. Agreement between best compliance and combined approaches was accordingly poor (K = 0.024). The combined approach suggested to increase PEEP in high tidal-recruiters, mainly to keep PEEP constant in biphasic pattern and to decrease PEEP in low tidal-recruiters. PEEP based on the combined approach was associated with lower tidal hysteresis (92.7 ± 20.9 vs. 204.7 ± 110.0 mL; p < 0.001) and lower dissipated energy per breath (0.1 ± 0.1 vs. 0.4 ± 0.2 J; p < 0.001) compared to the best compliance approach. Tidal hysteresis ≥ 100 mL was highly predictive of tidal recruitment at next PEEP step reduction (AUC 0.97; p < 0.001).ConclusionsAssessment of tidal hysteresis improves the interpretation of decremental PEEP trials and may help limiting tidal recruitment and energy dissipated into the respiratory system during mechanical ventilation of ARDS patients.

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Multivariable fractional polynomial interaction to investigate continuous effect modifiers in a meta-analysis on higher versus lower PEEP for patients with ARDS.

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Multivariable fractional polynomial interaction to investigate continuous effect modifiers in a meta-analysis on higher versus lower PEEP for patients with ARDS.

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