Dataset Information

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates.

ABSTRACT: Predictions of species responses to climate change often focus on distribution shifts, although responses can also include shifts in body sizes and population demographics. Here, shifts in the distributional ranges ('climate space'), body sizes (as maximum theoretical body sizes, L?) and growth rates (as rate at which L? is reached, K) were predicted for five fishes of the Cyprinidae family in a temperate region over eight climate change projections. Great Britain was the model area, and the model species were Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Squalius cephalus, Gobio gobio and Abramis brama. Ensemble models predicted that the species' climate spaces would shift in all modelled projections, with the most drastic changes occurring under high emissions; all range centroids shifted in a north-westerly direction. Predicted climate space expanded for R. rutilus and A. brama, contracted for S. cephalus, and for L. leuciscus and G. gobio, expanded under low-emission scenarios but contracted under high emissions, suggesting the presence of some climate-distribution thresholds. For R. rutilus, A. brama, S. cephalus and G. gobio, shifts in their climate space were coupled with predicted shifts to significantly smaller maximum body sizes and/or faster growth rates, aligning strongly to aspects of temperature-body size theory. These predicted shifts in L? and K had considerable consequences for size-at-age per species, suggesting substantial alterations in population age structures and abundances. Thus, when predicting climate change outcomes for species, outputs that couple shifts in climate space with altered body sizes and growth rates provide considerable insights into the population and community consequences, especially for species that cannot easily track their thermal niches.

SUBMITTER: Ruiz-Navarro A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5021213 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates.

Ruiz-Navarro Ana A Gillingham Phillipa K PK Britton J Robert JR

Global change biology 20160307 9

Predictions of species responses to climate change often focus on distribution shifts, although responses can also include shifts in body sizes and population demographics. Here, shifts in the distributional ranges ('climate space'), body sizes (as maximum theoretical body sizes, L∞) and growth rates (as rate at which L∞ is reached, K) were predicted for five fishes of the Cyprinidae family in a temperate region over eight climate change projections. Great Britain was the model area, and the mod ...[more]

PMID: 26824727

Similar Datasets

Project description:Climate change has already been affecting the regional suitability of grapevines with significant advances in phenology being observed globally in the last few decades. This has significant implications for New Zealand, where the wine industry represents a major share of the horticultural industry revenue. We modeled key crop phenological stages to better understand temporal and spatial shifts in three important regions of New Zealand (Marlborough, Hawke's Bay, Central Otago) for three dominant cultivars (Merlot, Pinot noir, and Sauvignon blanc) and one potential new and later ripening cultivar (Grenache). Simulations show an overall advance in flowering, véraison, and sugar ripeness by mid-century with more pronounced advance by the end of the century. Results show the magnitude of changes depends on the combination of greenhouse gas emission pathway, grape cultivar, and region. By mid-century, in the Marlborough region for instance, the four cultivars would flower 3 to 7 days earlier and reach sugar ripeness 7 to 15 days earlier depending on the greenhouse gas emission pathway. For growers to maintain the same timing of key phenological stages would require shifting planting of cultivars to more Southern parts of the country or implement adaptation strategies. Results also show the compression of time between flowering and véraison for all three dominant cultivars is due to a proportionally greater advance in véraison, particularly for Merlot in the Hawke's Bay and Pinot noir in Central Otago. Cross-regional analysis also raises the likelihood of the different regional cultivars ripening within a smaller window of time, complicating harvesting schedules across the country. However, considering New Zealand primarily accommodates cool climate viticulture cultivars, our results suggest that late ripening cultivars or extended ripening window in cooler regions may be advantageous in the face of climate change. These insights can inform New Zealand winegrowers with climate change adaptation options for their cultivar choices.

Project description:Many species' distributions are being impacted by the acceleration of climate change. Amphibians in particular serve numerous ecosystem functions and are useful indicators of environmental change. Understanding how their distributions have been impacted by climate change and will continue to be impacted is thus important to overall ecosystem health. Plethodon cinereus (Eastern Red-Backed Salamander) is a widespread species of lungless salamander (Plethodontidae) that ranges across northeastern North America. To better understand future potential lungless salamander range shifts, we quantify environmental favorability, the likelihood of membership in a set of sites where environmental conditions are favorable for a species, for P. cinereus in multiple time periods, and examine shifts in the species' distribution. First, utilizing a large data set of georeferenced records, we assessed which bioclimatic variables were associated with environmental favorability in P. cinereus. We then used species distribution modeling for two time periods (1961-1980 and 2001-2020) to determine whether there was a regional shift in environmental favorability in the past 60 years. Models were then used to project future distributions under eight climate change scenarios to quantify potential range shifts. Shifts were assessed using fuzzy logic, avoiding thresholds that oversimplify model predictions into artificial binary outputs. We found that P. cinereus presence is strongly associated with environmental stability. There has been a substantial northward shift in environmental favorability for P. cinereus between 1961-1980 and 2001-2020. This shift is predicted to continue by 2070, with larger shifts under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. As climate change accelerates, it is differentially impacting species but has especially strong impacts on dispersal-limited species. Our results show substantial northward shifts in climatic favorability in the last 60 years for P. cinereus, which are likely to be exacerbated by ongoing climate change. Since P. cinereus is dispersal-limited, these models may imply local extirpations along the southern modern range with limited northward dispersal. Continued monitoring of amphibians in the field will reveal microclimatic effects associated with climate change and the accuracy of the model predictions presented here.

Project description:BackgroundPoorly regulated international trade in ornamental fishes poses risks to both biodiversity and economic activity via invasive alien species and exotic pathogens. Border security officials need robust tools to confirm identifications, often requiring hard-to-obtain taxonomic literature and expertise. DNA barcoding offers a potentially attractive tool for quarantine inspection, but has yet to be scrutinised for aquarium fishes. Here, we present a barcoding approach for ornamental cyprinid fishes by: (1) expanding current barcode reference libraries; (2) assessing barcode congruence with morphological identifications under numerous scenarios (e.g. inclusion of GenBank data, presence of singleton species, choice of analytical method); and (3) providing supplementary information to identify difficult species.Methodology/principal findingsWe sampled 172 ornamental cyprinid fish species from the international trade, and provide data for 91 species currently unrepresented in reference libraries (GenBank/Bold). DNA barcodes were found to be highly congruent with our morphological assignments, achieving success rates of 90-99%, depending on the method used (neighbour-joining monophyly, bootstrap, nearest neighbour, GMYC, percent threshold). Inclusion of data from GenBank (additional 157 spp.) resulted in a more comprehensive library, but at a cost to success rate due to the increased number of singleton species. In addition to DNA barcodes, our study also provides supporting data in the form of specimen images, morphological characters, taxonomic bibliography, preserved vouchers, and nuclear rhodopsin sequences. Using this nuclear rhodopsin data we also uncovered evidence of interspecific hybridisation, and highlighted unrecognised diversity within popular aquarium species, including the endangered Indian barb Puntius denisonii.Conclusions/significanceWe demonstrate that DNA barcoding provides a highly effective biosecurity tool for rapidly identifying ornamental fishes. In cases where DNA barcodes are unable to offer an identification, we improve on previous studies by consolidating supplementary information from multiple data sources, and empower biosecurity agencies to confidently identify high-risk fishes in the aquarium trade.

Dataset Information

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates.

Publications

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets