Dataset Information

Application of Species Distribution Modeling for Avian Influenza surveillance in the United States considering the North America Migratory Flyways.

ABSTRACT: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has recently (2014-2015) re-emerged in the United States (US) causing the largest outbreak in US history with 232 outbreaks and an estimated economic impact of $950 million. This study proposes to use suitability maps for Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) to identify areas at high risk for HPAI outbreaks. LPAI suitability maps were based on wild bird demographics, LPAI surveillance, and poultry density in combination with environmental, climatic, and socio-economic risk factors. Species distribution modeling was used to produce high-resolution (cell size: 500m x 500m) maps for Avian Influenza (AI) suitability in each of the four North American migratory flyways (NAMF). Results reveal that AI suitability is heterogeneously distributed throughout the US with higher suitability in specific zones of the Midwest and coastal areas. The resultant suitability maps adequately predicted most of the HPAI outbreak areas during the 2014-2015 epidemic in the US (i.e. 89% of HPAI outbreaks were located in areas identified as highly suitable for LPAI). Results are potentially useful for poultry producers and stakeholders in designing risk-based surveillance, outreach and intervention strategies to better prevent and control future HPAI outbreaks in the US.

SUBMITTER: Belkhiria J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5021976 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The large-scale patterns of movement for the Sharp-shinned Hawk (Accipiter striatus), a small forest hawk found throughout western North America, are largely unknown. However, based on field observations we set out to test the hypothesis that juvenile migratory A. striatus caught along two distinct migration routes on opposite sides of the Sierra Nevada Mountains of North America (Pacific Coast and Intermountain Migratory Flyways) come from geographically different natal populations. We applied stable isotope analysis of hydrogen (H) and oxygen (O) of feathers, and large scale models of spatial isotopic variation (isoscapes) to formulate spatially explicit predictions of the origin of the migrant birds. Novel relationships were assessed between the measured hydrogen and oxygen isotope values of feathers from A. striatus museum specimens of known origin and the isoscape modeled hydrogen and oxygen isotope values of precipitation at those known locations. We used these relationships to predict the origin regions for birds migrating along the two flyways from the measured isotope values of migrant's feathers and the associated hydrogen and oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation where these feathers were formed. The birds from the two migration routes had overlap in their natal/breeding origins and did not differentiate into fully separate migratory populations, with birds from the Pacific Coast Migratory Flyway showing broader natal geographic origins than those from the Intermountain Flyway. The methodology based on oxygen isotopes had, in general, less predictive power than the one based on hydrogen. There was broad agreement between the two isotope approaches in the geographic assignment of the origins of birds migrating along the Pacific Coast Flyway, but not for those migrating along the Intermountain Migratory Flyway. These results are discussed in terms of their implications for conservation efforts of A. striatus in western North America, and the use of combined hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope analysis to track the movement of birds of prey on continental scales.

Dataset Information

Application of Species Distribution Modeling for Avian Influenza surveillance in the United States considering the North America Migratory Flyways.

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