Dataset Information

Sequential biases in accumulating evidence.

ABSTRACT: Whilst it is common in clinical trials to use the results of tests at one phase to decide whether to continue to the next phase and to subsequently design the next phase, we show that this can lead to biased results in evidence synthesis. Two new kinds of bias associated with accumulating evidence, termed 'sequential decision bias' and 'sequential design bias', are identified. Both kinds of bias are the result of making decisions on the usefulness of a new study, or its design, based on the previous studies. Sequential decision bias is determined by the correlation between the value of the current estimated effect and the probability of conducting an additional study. Sequential design bias arises from using the estimated value instead of the clinically relevant value of an effect in sample size calculations. We considered both the fixed-effect and the random-effects models of meta-analysis and demonstrated analytically and by simulations that in both settings the problems due to sequential biases are apparent. According to our simulations, the sequential biases increase with increased heterogeneity. Minimisation of sequential biases arises as a new and important research area necessary for successful evidence-based approaches to the development of science. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

SUBMITTER: Kulinskaya E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5031232 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Sequential biases in accumulating evidence.

Kulinskaya Elena E Huggins Richard R Dogo Samson Henry SH

Research synthesis methods 20151201 3

Whilst it is common in clinical trials to use the results of tests at one phase to decide whether to continue to the next phase and to subsequently design the next phase, we show that this can lead to biased results in evidence synthesis. Two new kinds of bias associated with accumulating evidence, termed 'sequential decision bias' and 'sequential design bias', are identified. Both kinds of bias are the result of making decisions on the usefulness of a new study, or its design, based on the prev ...[more]

PMID: 26626562

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundVaccine hesitancy (VH) remains worldwide a reason of concern. Most of the vaccination education strategies followed a "fact-based" approach, based on the assumption that decision making is a rational process, without considering the influence of cognitive biases and heuristics. Our study aimed at identifying factors involved in the parents' vaccination choice to inform and shape communication interventions.MethodsWe conducted an online national survey among parents between November 2020 and April 2021. The questionnaire consisted of 42 items organised in 4 parts: (1) personal information, (2) cognitive biases and risk propension, (3) Analytic Thinking (Cognitive Reflection Test), (4) conspiracy mentality, health literacy, and VH. Exploratory factor analysis was conducted to identify latent variables underlying the 19 items related to the 6 cognitive biases. Factors were categorised in quintiles and the corresponding pseudo-continuous variables used as predictors of the VH. Logistic regression model was applied to assess the association of the VH with factors, conspiracy mentality and risk propension. We adjusted for age, gender, economic status, and education levels.ResultsThe study included 939 parents, 764 women (81.4%), 69.8% had a degree or higher level of education. Considering cognitive biases, four factors explaining 54% of the total variance were identified and characterised as: fear of the side effects of vaccines (scepticism factor); carelessness of the risk and consequences of infections (denial factor); optimistic attitude (optimistic bias factor); preference for natural products (naturalness bias factor). All factors were positively associated to VH (p < 0.001) as were conspiracy mentality (p = 0.007) and risk propension (p = 0.002).ConclusionsThis study confirmed the need to amplify the model used to analyse the VH considering cognitive biases as important factor affecting the parents' decision making. These results may be useful to design personalised communication interventions regarding vaccines and vaccination.

Dataset Information

Sequential biases in accumulating evidence.

Publications

Sequential biases in accumulating evidence.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure