Analysis of heterogeneous dengue transmission in Guangdong in 2014 with multivariate time series model.

ABSTRACT: Guangdong experienced the largest dengue epidemic in recent history. In 2014, the number of dengue cases was the highest in the previous 10 years and comprised more than 90% of all cases. In order to analyze heterogeneous transmission of dengue, a multivariate time series model decomposing dengue risk additively into endemic, autoregressive and spatiotemporal components was used to model dengue transmission. Moreover, random effects were introduced in the model to deal with heterogeneous dengue transmission and incidence levels and power law approach was embedded into the model to account for spatial interaction. There was little spatial variation in the autoregressive component. In contrast, for the endemic component, there was a pronounced heterogeneity between the Pearl River Delta area

SUBMITTER: Cheng Q 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5036033 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature