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Optimizing Trial Designs for Targeted Therapies.

ABSTRACT: An important objective in the development of targeted therapies is to identify the populations where the treatment under consideration has positive benefit risk balance. We consider pivotal clinical trials, where the efficacy of a treatment is tested in an overall population and/or in a pre-specified subpopulation. Based on a decision theoretic framework we derive optimized trial designs by maximizing utility functions. Features to be optimized include the sample size and the population in which the trial is performed (the full population or the targeted subgroup only) as well as the underlying multiple test procedure. The approach accounts for prior knowledge of the efficacy of the drug in the considered populations using a two dimensional prior distribution. The considered utility functions account for the costs of the clinical trial as well as the expected benefit when demonstrating efficacy in the different subpopulations. We model utility functions from a sponsor's as well as from a public health perspective, reflecting actual civil interests. Examples of optimized trial designs obtained by numerical optimization are presented for both perspectives.

SUBMITTER: Ondra T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5042421 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Optimizing Trial Designs for Targeted Therapies.

Ondra Thomas T Jobjörnsson Sebastian S Beckman Robert A RA Burman Carl-Fredrik CF König Franz F Stallard Nigel N Posch Martin M

PloS one 20160929 9

An important objective in the development of targeted therapies is to identify the populations where the treatment under consideration has positive benefit risk balance. We consider pivotal clinical trials, where the efficacy of a treatment is tested in an overall population and/or in a pre-specified subpopulation. Based on a decision theoretic framework we derive optimized trial designs by maximizing utility functions. Features to be optimized include the sample size and the population in which ...[more]

PMID: 27684573

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Project description:Background and Significance: Parallel-group randomized controlled trials (PG-RCTs) are the gold standard for detecting differences in mean improvement across treatment conditions. However, PG-RCTs provide limited information about individuals, making them poorly optimized for quantifying the relationship of a biomarker measured at baseline with treatment response. In N-of-1 trials, an individual subject moves between treatment conditions to determine their specific response to each treatment. Aggregated N-of-1 trials analyze a cohort of such participants, and can be designed to optimize both statistical power and clinical or logistical constraints, such as allowing all participants to begin with an open-label stabilization phase to facilitate the enrollment of more acutely symptomatic participants. Here, we describe a set of statistical simulation studies comparing the power of four different trial designs to detect a relationship between a predictive biomarker measured at baseline and subjects' specific response to the PTSD pharmacotherapeutic agent prazosin. Methods: Data was simulated from 4 trial designs: (1) open-label; (2) open-label + blinded discontinuation; (3) traditional crossover; and (4) open label + blinded discontinuation + brief crossover (the N-of-1 design). Designs were matched in length and assessments. The primary outcome, analyzed with a linear mixed effects model, was whether a statistically significant association between biomarker value and response to prazosin was detected with 5% Type I error. Simulations were repeated 1,000 times to determine power and bias, with varied parameters. Results: Trial designs 2 & 4 had substantially higher power with fewer subjects than open label design. Trial design 4 also had higher power than trial design 2. Trial design 4 had slightly lower power than the traditional crossover design, although power declined much more rapidly as carryover was introduced. Conclusions: These results suggest that an aggregated N-of-1 trial design beginning with an open label titration phase may provide superior power over open label or open label and blinded discontinuation designs, and similar power to a traditional crossover design, in detecting an association between a predictive biomarker and the clinical response to the PTSD pharmacotherapeutic prazosin. This is achieved while allowing all participants to spend the first 8 weeks of the trial on open-label active treatment.

Dataset Information

Optimizing Trial Designs for Targeted Therapies.

Publications

Optimizing Trial Designs for Targeted Therapies.

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