Dataset Information

Testing Modeling Assumptions in the West Africa Ebola Outbreak.

ABSTRACT: The Ebola virus in West Africa has infected almost 30,000 and killed over 11,000 people. Recent models of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have often made assumptions about how the disease spreads, such as uniform transmissibility and homogeneous mixing within a population. In this paper, we test whether these assumptions are necessarily correct, and offer simple solutions that may improve disease model accuracy. First, we use data and models of West African migration to show that EVD does not homogeneously mix, but spreads in a predictable manner. Next, we estimate the initial growth rate of EVD within country administrative divisions and find that it significantly decreases with population density. Finally, we test whether EVD strains have uniform transmissibility through a novel statistical test, and find that certain strains appear more often than expected by chance.

SUBMITTER: Burghardt K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5056384 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Testing Modeling Assumptions in the West Africa Ebola Outbreak.

Burghardt Keith K Verzijl Christopher C Huang Junming J Ingram Matthew M Song Binyang B Hasne Marie-Pierre MP

Scientific reports 20161010

The Ebola virus in West Africa has infected almost 30,000 and killed over 11,000 people. Recent models of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have often made assumptions about how the disease spreads, such as uniform transmissibility and homogeneous mixing within a population. In this paper, we test whether these assumptions are necessarily correct, and offer simple solutions that may improve disease model accuracy. First, we use data and models of West African migration to show that EVD does not homogene ...[more]

PMID: 27721505

Similar Datasets

Project description:Due to the lack of Ebola outbreak early warning alert, preparedness, surveillance and response systems, the most deadly, complex and largest ever seen Ebola war has been devastating West African communities. The unparalleled Ebola tsunami has prompted interrogations into, and uncertainties about, the effectiveness and efficiency of national, regional and international community's illed- responses using conventional humanitarian control and containment approaches and methods. The late humanitarian and local non-government organisations emergency responses and challenges to curb transmission dynamics and stop the ongoing spread in the Ebola outbreak in West Africa have led to an unprecedented toll of 14,413 reported Ebola cases in eight countries since the outbreak began, with 5,177 reported deaths including 571 health-care workers and 325 died as 14 November 2014. These indications the need of further evaluation of monitoring as substantial proportion of infections outside the context of Ebola epicentres, Ebola health centres treatment and care, infection prevention and control quality assurance checks in these countries. At the same time, exhaustive efforts should target ensuring an sufficient supply of optimal personal protective equipment (PPE) to all Ebola treatment facilities, along with the provision of training and relevant guidelines to limit to the minimum possible level of risk. The continent hosts a big proportion of the world's wealth, yet its people live in abject poverty, with governments unable to feed and govern them effectively, and who are condemned to endure even darker moments with the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Institutionalisation of practical and operational non-conventional emergency response models efficient health systems, and tailored programmes can clearly support to prevent, control and eventually stamp out Ebola geo-distribution in addition to population mental health services that are requisite to address the massive range of the health, socio-psychological and economic consequences during and post Ebola associated crises. There is a critical need for a more pragmatic and robust scientific approach to transform and re-orient the huge natural and human resource potentials towards achieving universal coverage, the 2015-2030 Millennium Developing Goals (MDGs), sustainable growth and development in Africa.

Dataset Information

Testing Modeling Assumptions in the West Africa Ebola Outbreak.

Publications

Testing Modeling Assumptions in the West Africa Ebola Outbreak.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets