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Variable selection in a flexible parametric mixture cure model with interval-censored data.

ABSTRACT: In standard survival analysis, it is generally assumed that every individual will experience someday the event of interest. However, this is not always the case, as some individuals may not be susceptible to this event. Also, in medical studies, it is frequent that patients come to scheduled interviews and that the time to the event is only known to occur between two visits. That is, the data are interval-censored with a cure fraction. Variable selection in such a setting is of outstanding interest. Covariates impacting the survival are not necessarily the same as those impacting the probability to experience the event. The objective of this paper is to develop a parametric but flexible statistical model to analyze data that are interval-censored and include a fraction of cured individuals when the number of potential covariates may be large. We use the parametric mixture cure model with an accelerated failure time regression model for the survival, along with the extended generalized gamma for the error term. To overcome the issue of non-stable and non-continuous variable selection procedures, we extend the adaptive LASSO to our model. By means of simulation studies, we show good performance of our method and discuss the behavior of estimates with varying cure and censoring proportion. Lastly, our proposed method is illustrated with a real dataset studying the time until conversion to mild cognitive impairment, a possible precursor of Alzheimer's disease.

SUBMITTER: Scolas S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5057324 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Variable selection in a flexible parametric mixture cure model with interval-censored data.

Scolas Sylvie S El Ghouch Anouar A Legrand Catherine C Oulhaj Abderrahim A

Statistics in medicine 20151015 7

In standard survival analysis, it is generally assumed that every individual will experience someday the event of interest. However, this is not always the case, as some individuals may not be susceptible to this event. Also, in medical studies, it is frequent that patients come to scheduled interviews and that the time to the event is only known to occur between two visits. That is, the data are interval-censored with a cure fraction. Variable selection in such a setting is of outstanding inter ...[more]

PMID: 26467904

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Project description:BackgroundTime-to-event data that is subject to interval censoring is common in the practice of medical research and versatile statistical methods for estimating associations in such settings have been limited. For right censored data, non-parametric pseudo-observations have been proposed as a basis for regression modeling with the possibility to use different association measures. In this article, we propose a method for calculating pseudo-observations for interval censored data.MethodsWe develop an extension of a recently developed set of parametric pseudo-observations based on a spline-based flexible parametric estimator. The inherent competing risk issue with an interval censored event of interest necessitates the use of an illness-death model, and we formulate our method within this framework. To evaluate the empirical properties of the proposed method, we perform a simulation study and calculate pseudo-observations based on our method as well as alternative approaches. We also present an analysis of a real dataset on patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillators who are monitored for the occurrence of a particular type of device failures by routine follow-up examinations. In this dataset, we have information on exact event times as well as the interval censored data, so we can compare analyses of pseudo-observations based on the interval censored data to those obtained using the non-parametric pseudo-observations for right censored data.ResultsOur simulations show that the proposed method for calculating pseudo-observations provides unbiased estimates of the cumulative incidence function as well as associations with exposure variables with appropriate coverage probabilities. The analysis of the real dataset also suggests that our method provides estimates which are in agreement with estimates obtained from the right censored data.ConclusionsThe proposed method for calculating pseudo-observations based on the flexible parametric approach provides a versatile solution to the specific challenges that arise with interval censored data. This solution allows regression modeling using a range of different association measures.

Project description:MotivationThe statistical analysis of single-cell data is a challenge in cell biological studies. Tailored statistical models and computational methods are required to resolve the subpopulation structure, i.e. to correctly identify and characterize subpopulations. These approaches also support the unraveling of sources of cell-to-cell variability. Finite mixture models have shown promise, but the available approaches are ill suited to the simultaneous consideration of data from multiple experimental conditions and to censored data. The prevalence and relevance of single-cell data and the lack of suitable computational analytics make automated methods, that are able to deal with the requirements posed by these data, necessary.ResultsWe present MEMO, a flexible mixture modeling framework that enables the simultaneous, automated analysis of censored and uncensored data acquired under multiple experimental conditions. MEMO is based on maximum-likelihood inference and allows for testing competing hypotheses. MEMO can be applied to a variety of different single-cell data types. We demonstrate the advantages of MEMO by analyzing right and interval censored single-cell microscopy data. Our results show that an examination of censoring and the simultaneous consideration of different experimental conditions are necessary to reveal biologically meaningful subpopulation structures. MEMO allows for a stringent analysis of single-cell data and enables researchers to avoid misinterpretation of censored data. Therefore, MEMO is a valuable asset for all fields that infer the characteristics of populations by looking at single individuals such as cell biology and medicine.Availability and implementationMEMO is implemented in MATLAB and freely available via github (https://github.com/MEMO-toolbox/MEMO).Contactseva-maria.geissen@ist.uni-stuttgart.de or nicole.radde@ist.uni-stuttgart.deSupplementary informationSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Dataset Information

Variable selection in a flexible parametric mixture cure model with interval-censored data.

Publications

Variable selection in a flexible parametric mixture cure model with interval-censored data.

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