Time-Lagging Interplay Effect and Excess Risk of Meteorological/Mosquito Parameters and Petrochemical Gas Explosion on Dengue Incidence.

ABSTRACT: In Kaohsiung, a metropolitan city in Taiwan at high risk of dengue epidemic, weather factors combined with an accidental petrochemical gas explosion (PGE) may affect mosquito?human dynamics in 2014. Generalized estimating equations with lagged-time Poisson regression analyses were used to evaluate the effect of meteorological/mosquito parameters and PGE on dengue incidences (2000-2014) in Kaohsiung. Increased minimum temperatures rendered a 2- and 3-month lagging interactive effect on higher dengue risks, and higher rainfall exhibited a 1- and 2-month lagging interplay effect on lower risks (interaction, P???0.001). The dengue risk was significantly higher than that in a large-scale outbreak year (2002) from week 5 after PGE accident in 2014 (2.9?8.3-fold for weeks 5?22). The greatest cross-correlation of dengue incidences in the PGE-affected and PGE-neighboring districts was identified at weeks 1 after the PGE (r_s?=?0.956, P?

SUBMITTER: Chang K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5062066 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature