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Life expectancy trends in adults on antiretroviral treatment in South Africa.

ABSTRACT: Previous studies have reported improvements in life expectancies of patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) over time, but it is not clear whether these improvements are explained by changes in baseline clinical characteristics, longer duration on ART or changes in clinical practices.Two parametric survival models were fitted to mortality data from South African ART cohorts that had linked patient records to the national vital registration system. The first model estimated mortality by age, sex, cohort, baseline CD4 cell count, time since ART initiation and period of ART initiation; the second model included only age, sex, cohort and period of follow-up. Life expectancies were calculated from the estimated mortality rates.The first model estimated little change in mortality over time: women starting ART at age 35 years, at CD4 cell counts of 200 cells/?l or higher, had life expectancies of 32.7 years [95% confidence interval (CI): 31.6-33.6], 32.4 years (95% CI: 31.3-33.4) and 33.0 years (95% CI: 32.0-34.1) in the 2001-2006, 2007-2009 and 2010-2014 periods, respectively. However, the second model estimated a significant improvement in life expectancy; for all women on ART at age 35 years, corresponding life expectancies were 13.0 years (95% CI: 12.1-14.2), 20.4 years (95% CI: 19.5-21.4) and 26.1 years (95% CI: 25.2-26.9), respectively.Although life expectancies in South African ART patients have improved over time, these improvements are not observed after controlling for changes in baseline CD4 cell count and ART duration. This suggests that changes in clinical practice and programme scale have had little impact on ART mortality in South Africa.

SUBMITTER: Johnson LF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5069138 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Life expectancy trends in adults on antiretroviral treatment in South Africa.

Johnson Leigh F LF Keiser Olivia O Fox Matthew P MP Tanser Frank F Cornell Morna M Hoffmann Chris J CJ Prozesky Hans H Boulle Andrew A Davies Mary-Ann MA

AIDS (London, England) 20161001 16

<h4>Background</h4>Previous studies have reported improvements in life expectancies of patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) over time, but it is not clear whether these improvements are explained by changes in baseline clinical characteristics, longer duration on ART or changes in clinical practices.<h4>Method</h4>Two parametric survival models were fitted to mortality data from South African ART cohorts that had linked patient records to the national vital registration system. The first m ...[more]

PMID: 27428744

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Project description:BackgroundWomen have better patient outcomes in HIV care and treatment than men in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed--at the population level--whether and to what extent mass HIV treatment is associated with changes in sex disparities in adult life expectancy, a summary metric of survival capturing mortality across the full cascade of HIV care. We also determined sex-specific trends in HIV mortality and the distribution of HIV-related deaths in men and women prior to and at each stage of the clinical cascade.Methods and findingsData were collected on all deaths occurring from 2001 to 2011 in a large population-based surveillance cohort (52,964 women and 45,688 men, ages 15 y and older) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Cause of death was ascertained by verbal autopsy (93% response rate). Demographic data were linked at the individual level to clinical records from the public sector HIV treatment and care program that serves the region. Annual rates of HIV-related mortality were assessed for men and women separately, and female-to-male rate ratios were estimated in exponential hazard models. Sex-specific trends in adult life expectancy and HIV-cause-deleted adult life expectancy were calculated. The proportions of HIV deaths that accrued to men and women at different stages in the HIV cascade of care were estimated annually. Following the beginning of HIV treatment scale-up in 2004, HIV mortality declined among both men and women. Female adult life expectancy increased from 51.3 y (95% CI 49.7, 52.8) in 2003 to 64.5 y (95% CI 62.7, 66.4) in 2011, a gain of 13.2 y. Male adult life expectancy increased from 46.9 y (95% CI 45.6, 48.2) in 2003 to 55.9 y (95% CI 54.3, 57.5) in 2011, a gain of 9.0 y. The gap between female and male adult life expectancy doubled, from 4.4 y in 2003 to 8.6 y in 2011, a difference of 4.3 y (95% CI 0.9, 7.6). For women, HIV mortality declined from 1.60 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.46, 1.75) in 2003 to 0.56 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.48, 0.65) in 2011. For men, HIV-related mortality declined from 1.71 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.55, 1.88) to 0.76 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.67, 0.87) in the same period. The female-to-male rate ratio for HIV mortality declined from 0.93 (95% CI 0.82-1.07) in 2003 to 0.73 (95% CI 0.60-0.89) in 2011, a statistically significant decline (p = 0.046). In 2011, 57% and 41% of HIV-related deaths occurred among men and women, respectively, who had never sought care for HIV in spite of the widespread availability of free HIV treatment. The results presented here come from a poor rural setting in southern Africa with high HIV prevalence and high HIV treatment coverage; broader generalizability is unknown. Additionally, factors other than HIV treatment scale-up may have influenced population mortality trends.ConclusionsMass HIV treatment has been accompanied by faster declines in HIV mortality among women than men and a growing female-male disparity in adult life expectancy at the population level. In 2011, over half of male HIV deaths occurred in men who had never sought clinical HIV care. Interventions to increase HIV testing and linkage to care among men are urgently needed.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Model estimates of mortality rates in ART patients were obtained from the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data (1997-2013) and mortality data from the South African vital registration system (1997-2014), using a Bayesian approach. In the 1985-2014 period, 2.70 million adult HIV-related deaths occurred in South Africa. Adult HIV deaths peaked at 231,000 per annum in 2006 and declined to 95,000 in 2014, a reduction of 74.7% (95% CI: 73.3%-76.1%) compared to the scenario without ART. However, HIV mortality in 2014 was estimated to be 69% (95% CI: 46%-97%) higher in 2014 (161,000) if the model was calibrated only to HIV prevalence data. In the 2000-2014 period, the South African ART programme is estimated to have reduced the cumulative number of HIV deaths in adults by 1.72 million (95% CI: 1.58 million-1.84 million) and to have saved 6.15 million life years in adults (95% CI: 5.52 million-6.69 million). This compares with a potential saving of 8.80 million (95% CI: 7.90 million-9.59 million) life years that might have been achieved if South Africa had moved swiftly to implement WHO guidelines (2004-2013) and had achieved high levels of ART uptake in HIV-diagnosed individuals from 2004 onwards. The model is limited by its reliance on all-cause mortality data, given the lack of reliable cause-of-death reporting, and also does not allow for changes over time in tuberculosis control programmes and ART effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS:ART has had a dramatic impact on adult mortality in South Africa, but delays in the rollout of ART, especially in the early stages of the ART programme, have contributed to substantial loss of life. This is the first study to our knowledge to calibrate a model of ART impact to population-level recorded death data in Africa; models that are not calibrated to population-level death data may overestimate HIV-related mortality.

Project description:BackgroundFew estimates exist of the life expectancy of HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate the life expectancy of patients starting ART in South Africa and compare it with that of HIV-negative adults.Methods and findingsData were collected from six South African ART cohorts. Analysis was restricted to 37,740 HIV-positive adults starting ART for the first time. Estimates of mortality were obtained by linking patient records to the national population register. Relative survival models were used to estimate the excess mortality attributable to HIV by age, for different baseline CD4 categories and different durations. Non-HIV mortality was estimated using a South African demographic model. The average life expectancy of men starting ART varied between 27.6 y (95% CI: 25.2-30.2) at age 20 y and 10.1 y (95% CI: 9.3-10.8) at age 60 y, while estimates for women at the same ages were substantially higher, at 36.8 y (95% CI: 34.0-39.7) and 14.4 y (95% CI: 13.3-15.3), respectively. The life expectancy of a 20-y-old woman was 43.1 y (95% CI: 40.1-46.0) if her baseline CD4 count was ? 200 cells/µl, compared to 29.5 y (95% CI: 26.2-33.0) if her baseline CD4 count was <50 cells/µl. Life expectancies of patients with baseline CD4 counts ? 200 cells/µl were between 70% and 86% of those in HIV-negative adults of the same age and sex, and life expectancies were increased by 15%-20% in patients who had survived 2 y after starting ART. However, the analysis was limited by a lack of mortality data at longer durations.ConclusionsSouth African HIV-positive adults can have a near-normal life expectancy, provided that they start ART before their CD4 count drops below 200 cells/µl. These findings demonstrate that the near-normal life expectancies of HIV-positive individuals receiving ART in high-income countries can apply to low- and middle-income countries as well. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Project description:BackgroundWhile South Africa spends approximately 7.4% of GDP on healthcare, only 43% of these funds are spent in the public system, which is tasked with the provision of care to the majority of the population including a large proportion of those in need of antiretroviral treatment (ART). South Africa is currently debating the introduction of a National Health Insurance (NHI) system. Because such a universal health system could mean increased public healthcare funding and improved access to human resources, it could improve the sustainability of ART provision. This paper considers the minimum resources that would be required to achieve the proposed universal health system and contrasts these with the costs of scaled up access to ART between 2010 and 2020.MethodsThe costs of ART and universal coverage (UC) are assessed through multiplying unit costs, utilization and estimates of the population in need during each year of the planning cycle. Costs are from the provider's perspective reflected in real 2007 prices.ResultsThe annual costs of providing ART increase from US$1 billion in 2010 to US$3.6 billion in 2020. If increases in funding to public healthcare only keep pace with projected real GDP growth, then close to 30% of these resources would be required for ART by 2020. However, an increase in the public healthcare resource envelope from 3.2% to 5%-6% of GDP would be sufficient to finance both ART and other services under a universal system (if based on a largely public sector model) and the annual costs of ART would not exceed 15% of the universal health system budget.ConclusionsResponding to the HIV-epidemic is one of the many challenges currently facing South Africa. Whether this response becomes a "resource for democracy" or whether it undermines social cohesiveness within poor communities and between rich and poor communities will be partially determined by the steps that are taken during the next ten years. While the introduction of a universal system will be complex, it could generate a health system responsive to the needs of all South Africans.

Project description:INTRODUCTION: The authors report on a health systems strengthening intervention using quality improvement (QI) methods at the subdistrict level to accelerate highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) initiation in South Africa. METHODS: Using a phased scale-up design between August 2006 and November 2009, 14 primary healthcare clinics, one community health centre, one district hospital and one tertiary hospital in a subdistrict were recruited into a 'learning network' using QI methods to facilitate cross-facility learning/mentorship/support. Clinic teams consisting of nurses, counsellors, clerks and/or doctors set collective and individual performance targets, analysed their care systems using 'real-time' data feedback, and designed/implemented a set of simple changes to improve HIV testing and HAART initiation rates across the region. DATA ANALYSIS: Primary clinic data were used to measure HAART initiation rates (primary outcome) and HIV testing (secondary outcome). We analysed data variation/trends using an interrupted time series design. Logistic regression analysis was applied to examine trends in HAART initiation during the intervention phases. RESULTS: Clinics in the learning network increased HIV testing by 301.8% from 891/month (SD=94.2) to 3580/month (SD=327.7) (p<0.0001). Monthly HAART initiations increased by 185.5% from 179/month (SD=17.22) to 511/month (SD=44.93) (p<0.0001). During the pilot (phase I), the monthly rate of HAART initiations increased by 3.6 patients. In the prototype collaborative (phase II), there was no acceleration in the rate of increase (3.3/month, p=0.92). Significant acceleration was observed in the rate of increase during the QI scale up (phase III) (10.1/month, p<0.001). The proportion of estimated need for HAART met in the region increased from 35.8% to 72.4% at a time of rapid population growth. CONCLUSION: A QI approach, using learning networks to teach simple data-driven methods for addressing system failures, with increased training and resource inputs, can assist districts to quickly reach universal coverage targets.

Dataset Information

Life expectancy trends in adults on antiretroviral treatment in South Africa.

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Life expectancy trends in adults on antiretroviral treatment in South Africa.

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