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Spatiotemporal Variation in Distance Dependent Animal Movement Contacts: One Size Doesn't Fit All.

ABSTRACT: The structure of contacts that mediate transmission has a pronounced effect on the outbreak dynamics of infectious disease and simulation models are powerful tools to inform policy decisions. Most simulation models of livestock disease spread rely to some degree on predictions of animal movement between holdings. Typically, movements are more common between nearby farms than between those located far away from each other. Here, we assessed spatiotemporal variation in such distance dependence of animal movement contacts from an epidemiological perspective. We evaluated and compared nine statistical models, applied to Swedish movement data from 2008. The models differed in at what level (if at all), they accounted for regional and/or seasonal heterogeneities in the distance dependence of the contacts. Using a kernel approach to describe how probability of contacts between farms changes with distance, we developed a hierarchical Bayesian framework and estimated parameters by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We evaluated models by three different approaches of model selection. First, we used Deviance Information Criterion to evaluate their performance relative to each other. Secondly, we estimated the log predictive posterior distribution, this was also used to evaluate their relative performance. Thirdly, we performed posterior predictive checks by simulating movements with each of the parameterized models and evaluated their ability to recapture relevant summary statistics. Independent of selection criteria, we found that accounting for regional heterogeneity improved model accuracy. We also found that accounting for seasonal heterogeneity was beneficial, in terms of model accuracy, according to two of three methods used for model selection. Our results have important implications for livestock disease spread models where movement is an important risk factor for between farm transmission. We argue that modelers should refrain from using methods to simulate animal movements that assume the same pattern across all regions and seasons without explicitly testing for spatiotemporal variation.

SUBMITTER: Brommesson P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5070834 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundPromoting the uptake of vaccination for infectious diseases such as COVID-19 remains a global challenge, necessitating collaborative efforts between public health units (PHUs) and communities. Applied behavioural science can play a crucial role in supporting PHUs' response by providing insights into human behaviour and informing tailored strategies to enhance vaccination uptake. Community engagement can help broaden the reach of behavioural science research by involving a more diverse range of populations and ensuring that strategies better represent the needs of specific communities. We developed and applied an approach to conducting community-based behavioural science research with ethnically and socioeconomically diverse populations to guide PHUs in tailoring their strategies to promote COVID-19 vaccination. This paper presents the community engagement methodology and the lessons learned in applying the methodology.MethodsThe community engagement methodology was developed based on integrated knowledge translation (iKT) and community-based participatory research (CBPR) principles. The study involved collaboration with PHUs and local communities in Ontario, Canada to identify priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination, understand factors influencing vaccine uptake and co-design strategies tailored to each community to promote vaccination. Community engagement was conducted across three large urban regions with individuals from Eastern European communities, African, Black, and Caribbean communities and low socioeconomic neighbourhoods.ResultsWe developed and applied a seven-step methodology for conducting community-based behavioural science research: (1) aligning goals with system-level partners; (2) engaging with PHUs to understand priorities; (3) understanding community strengths and dynamics; (4) building relationships with each community; (5) establishing partnerships (community advisory groups); (6) involving community members in the research process; and (7) feeding back and interpreting research findings. Research partnerships were successfully established with members of prioritized communities, enabling recruitment of participants for theory-informed behavioural science interviews, interpretation of findings, and co-design of targeted recommendations for each PHU to improve COVID-19 vaccination uptake. Lessons learned include the importance of cultural sensitivity and awareness of sociopolitical context in tailoring community engagement, being agile to address the diverse and evolving priorities of PHUs, and building trust to achieve effective community engagement.ConclusionEffective community engagement in behavioural science research can lead to more inclusive and representative research. The community engagement approach developed and applied in this study acknowledges the diversity of communities, recognizes the central role of PHUs, and can help in addressing complex public health challenges.

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Spatiotemporal Variation in Distance Dependent Animal Movement Contacts: One Size Doesn't Fit All.

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