Dataset Information

Historical Trends in the Hepatitis C Virus Epidemics in North America and Australia.

ABSTRACT:

Background

?Bayesian evolutionary analysis (coalescent analysis) based on genetic sequences has been used to describe the origins and spread of rapidly mutating RNA viruses, such as influenza, Ebola, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV).

Methods

?Full-length subtype 1a and 3a sequences from early HCV infections from the International Collaborative of Incident HIV and Hepatitis C in Injecting Cohorts (InC3), as well as from public databases from a time window of 1977-2012, were used in a coalescent analysis with BEAST software to estimate the origin and progression of the HCV epidemics in Australia and North America. Convergent temporal trends were sought via independent epidemiological modeling.

Results

?The epidemic of subtype 3a had more recent origins (around 1950) than subtype 1a (around 1920) in both continents. In both modeling approaches and in both continents, the epidemics underwent exponential growth between 1955 and 1975, which then stabilized in the late 20th century.

Conclusions

?Historical events that fuelled the emergence and spread of injecting drug use, such as the advent of intravenous medical therapies and devices, and growth in the heroin trade, as well as population mixing during armed conflicts, were likely drivers for the cross-continental spread of the HCV epidemics.

SUBMITTER: Rodrigo C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5079374 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Historical Trends in the Hepatitis C Virus Epidemics in North America and Australia.

Rodrigo Chaturaka C Eltahla Auda A AA Bull Rowena A RA Grebely Jason J Dore Gregory J GJ Applegate Tanya T Page Kimberly K Bruneau Julie J Morris Meghan D MD Cox Andrea L AL Osburn William W Kim Arthur Y AY Schinkel Janke J Shoukry Naglaa H NH Lauer Georg M GM Maher Lisa L Hellard Margaret M Prins Maria M Estes Chris C Razavi Homie H Lloyd Andrew R AR Luciani Fabio F

The Journal of infectious diseases 20160828 9

<h4>Background</h4> Bayesian evolutionary analysis (coalescent analysis) based on genetic sequences has been used to describe the origins and spread of rapidly mutating RNA viruses, such as influenza, Ebola, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV).<h4>Methods</h4> Full-length subtype 1a and 3a sequences from early HCV infections from the International Collaborative of Incident HIV and Hepatitis C in Injecting Cohorts (InC3), as well as from public databases from a time wi ...[more]

PMID: 27571901

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Project description:BACKGROUND:As several regulatory and environmental changes have occurred in North America, trends in overdose deaths were examined in the United States (US), Ontario and British Columbia (BC), including changes in consumption levels of prescription opioids (PO) and overdose deaths, changes in correlations between consumption levels of PO and overdose deaths and modeled differences between observed and predicted overdose deaths if no changes had occurred. METHODS:Consumption levels of PO included defined daily doses for statistical purposes per million inhabitants per day for the US and Canada (2001-2015). Overdose deaths included opioid overdose deaths for the US (2001-2017) and Ontario (2003-2017) and illicit drug overdose deaths for BC (2001-2017). The analytic techniques included structural break point analyses, Pearson product-moment correlations and multivariate Gaussian state space modeling. RESULTS:Consumption levels of PO changed in the US in 2010 and in Canada in 2012. Overdose deaths changed in the US in 2014 and in Ontario and BC in 2015. Prior to the observed changes in consumption levels of PO, there were positive correlations between consumption levels of PO and overdose deaths in the US (r?=?0.99, p?<?0.001) and Ontario (r?=?0.92, p?=?0.003). After the observed changes in consumption levels of PO, there was a negative correlation between consumption levels of PO and overdose deaths in the US (r?=?-?0.99, p?=?0.002). Observed overdose deaths exceeded predicted overdose deaths by 5.7 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 4.8-6.6), 3.5 (95% CI: 3.2-3.8) and 21.8 (95% CI: 18.6-24.9) deaths per 100,000 people in the US, Ontario and BC, respectively in 2017. These excess deaths corresponded to 37.7% (95% CI: 31.9-43.6), 39.2% (95% CI: 36.3-42.1) and 72.2% (95% CI: 61.8-82.6) of observed overdose deaths in the US, Ontario and BC, respectively in 2017. CONCLUSIONS:The opioid crisis has evolved in North America, as a sizeable proportion of overdose deaths are now attributable to the several regulatory and environmental changes. These findings necessitate substance use policies to be conceptualized more broadly as well as the continued expansion of harm reduction services and types of pharmacotherapy interventions.

Dataset Information

Historical Trends in the Hepatitis C Virus Epidemics in North America and Australia.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Historical Trends in the Hepatitis C Virus Epidemics in North America and Australia.

Similar Datasets

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