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Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

ABSTRACT: Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

SUBMITTER: Goussen B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5080554 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

Goussen Benoit B Price Oliver R OR Rendal Cecilie C Ashauer Roman R

Scientific reports 20161026

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and ...[more]

PMID: 27782171

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Project description:Climate change is one of many ongoing human-induced environmental changes, but few studies consider interactive effects between multiple anthropogenic disturbances. In coastal sub-arctic heathland, we quantified the impact of a factorial design simulating extreme winter warming (WW) events (7 days at 6-7°C) combined with episodic summer nitrogen (+N) depositions (5 kg N ha-1) on plant winter physiology, plant community composition and ecosystem CO2 fluxes of an Empetrum nigrum dominated heathland during 3 consecutive years in northern Norway. We expected that the +N would exacerbate any stress effects caused by the WW treatment. During WW events, ecosystem respiration doubled, leaf respiration declined (-58%), efficiency of Photosystem II (Fv/Fm) increased (between 26 and 88%), while cell membrane fatty acids showed strong compositional changes as a result of the warming and freezing. In particular, longer fatty acid chains increased as a result of WW events, and eicosadienoic acid (C20:2) was lower when plants were exposed to the combination of WW and +N. A larval outbreak of geometrid moths (Epirrita autumnata and Operophtera brumata) following the first WW led to a near-complete leaf defoliation of the dominant dwarf shrubs E. nigrum (-87%) and Vaccinium myrtillus (-81%) across all experimental plots. Leaf emergence timing, plant biomass or composition, NDVI and growing season ecosystem CO2 fluxes were unresponsive to the WW and +N treatments. The limited plant community response reflected the relative mild winter freezing temperatures (-6.6°C to -11.8°C) recorded after the WW events, and that the grazing pressure probably overshadowed any potential treatment effects. The grazing pressure and WW both induce damage to the evergreen shrubs and their combination should therefore be even stronger. In addition, +N could have exacerbated the impact of both extreme events, but the ecosystem responses did not support this. Therefore, our results indicate that these sub-arctic Empetrum-dominated ecosystems are highly resilient and that their responses may be limited to the event with the strongest impact.

Project description:The potential for complex synergistic or antagonistic interactions between multiple stressors presents one of the largest uncertainties when predicting ecological change but, despite common use of the terms in the scientific literature, a consensus on their operational definition is still lacking. The identification of synergism or antagonism is generally straightforward when stressors operate in the same direction, but if individual stressor effects oppose each other, the definition of synergism is paradoxical because what is synergistic to one stressor's effect direction is antagonistic to the others. In their highly cited meta-analysis, Crain et al. (Ecology Letters, 11, 2008: 1304) assumed in situations with opposing individual effects that synergy only occurs when the cumulative effect is more negative than the additive sum of the opposing individual effects. We argue against this and propose a new systematic classification based on an additive effects model that combines the magnitude and response direction of the cumulative effect and the interaction effect. A new class of "mitigating synergism" is identified, where cumulative effects are reversed and enhanced. We applied our directional classification to the dataset compiled by Crain et al. (Ecology Letters, 11, 2008: 1304) to determine the prevalence of synergistic, antagonistic, and additive interactions. Compared to their original analysis, we report differences in the representation of interaction classes by interaction type and we document examples of mitigating synergism, highlighting the importance of incorporating individual stressor effect directions in the determination of synergisms and antagonisms. This is particularly pertinent given a general bias in ecology toward investigating and reporting adverse multiple stressor effects (double negative). We emphasize the need for reconsideration by the ecological community of the interpretation of synergism and antagonism in situations where individual stressor effects oppose each other or where cumulative effects are reversed and enhanced.

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Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

Publications

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

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