Dataset Information

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

ABSTRACT:

Background

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.

Methods

We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.

Findings

We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.

Interpretation

Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.

Funding

Wellcome Trust.

SUBMITTER: NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5081106 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundUnderweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.MethodsWe analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18·5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), ≥40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21·3-22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m(2) (24·0-24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m(2) (21·7-22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m(2) (24·2-24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m(2) (28·6-29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m(2) (21·4-22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m(2) (31·5-32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5-17·4) to 8·8% (7·4-10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6-17·9) to 9·7% (8·3-11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8-29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9-29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4-4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7-12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1-7·8) to 14·9% (13·6-16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0-2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4-5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46-0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3-1·9) in women.InterpretationIf post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.FundingWellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.

Project description:BackgroundPhysical activity has many health benefits for young people. In 2018, WHO launched More Active People for a Healthier World, a new global action on physical activity, including new targets of a 15% relative reduction of global prevalence of insufficient physical activity by 2030 among adolescents and adults. We describe current prevalence and trends of insufficient physical activity among school-going adolescents aged 11-17 years by country, region, and globally.MethodsWe did a pooled analysis of cross-sectional survey data that were collected through random sampling with a sample size of at least 100 individuals, were representative of a national or defined subnational population, and reported prevalence of of insufficient physical activity by sex in adolescents. Prevalence had to be reported for at least three of the years of age within the 10-19-year age range. We estimated the prevalence of insufficient physical activity in school-going adolescents aged 11-17 years (combined and by sex) for individual countries, for four World Bank income groups, nine regions, and globally for the years 2001-16. To derive a standard definition of insufficient physical activity and to adjust for urban-only survey coverage, we used regression models. We estimated time trends using multilevel mixed-effects modelling.FindingsWe used data from 298 school-based surveys from 146 countries, territories, and areas including 1·6 million students aged 11-17 years. Globally, in 2016, 81·0% (95% uncertainty interval 77·8-87·7) of students aged 11-17 years were insufficiently physically active (77·6% [76·1-80·4] of boys and 84·7% [83·0-88·2] of girls). Although prevalence of insufficient physical activity significantly decreased between 2001 and 2016 for boys (from 80·1% [78·3-81·6] in 2001), there was no significant change for girls (from 85·1% [83·1-88·0] in 2001). There was no clear pattern according to country income group: insufficient activity prevalence in 2016 was 84·9% (82·6-88·2) in low-income countries, 79·3% (77·2-87·5) in lower-middle-income countries, 83·9% (79·5-89·2) in upper-middle-income countries, and 79·4% (74·0-86·2) in high-income countries. The region with the highest prevalence of insufficient activity in 2016 was high-income Asia Pacific for both boys (89·0%, 62·8-92·2) and girls (95·6%, 73·7-97·9). The regions with the lowest prevalence were high-income western countries for boys (72·1%, 71·1-73·6), and south Asia for girls (77·5%, 72·8-89·3). In 2016, 27 countries had a prevalence of insufficient activity of 90% or more for girls, whereas this was the case for two countries for boys.InterpretationThe majority of adolescents do not meet current physical activity guidelines. Urgent scaling up of implementation of known effective policies and programmes is needed to increase activity in adolescents. Investment and leadership at all levels to intervene on the multiple causes and inequities that might perpetuate the low participation in physical activity and sex differences, as well as engagement of youth themselves, will be vital to strengthen the opportunities for physical activity in all communities. Such action will improve the health of this and future young generations and support achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.FundingWHO.

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Project description:ImportanceAsia is home to the largest diabetic populations in the world. However, limited studies have quantified the association of diabetes with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Asian populations.ObjectivesTo evaluate the association of diabetes with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Asia and to investigate potential effect modifications of the diabetes-mortality associations by participants' age, sex, education level, body mass index, and smoking status.Design, setting, and participantsThis pooled analysis incorporated individual participant data from 22 prospective cohort studies of the Asia Cohort Consortium conducted between 1963 and 2006. A total of 1 002 551 Asian individuals (from mainland China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, India, and Bangladesh) were followed up for more than 3 years. Cohort-specific hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for all-cause and cause-specific mortality were estimated using Cox regression models and then pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Analysis was conducted between January 10, 2018, and August 31, 2018.ExposuresDoctor-diagnosed diabetes, age, sex, education level, body mass index, and smoking status.Main outcomes and measuresAll-cause and cause-specific mortality.ResultsOf 1 002 551 participants (518 537 [51.7%] female; median [range] age, 54.0 [30.0-98.0] years), 148 868 deaths were ascertained during a median (range) follow-up of 12.6 (3.0-38.9) years. The overall prevalence of diabetes reported at baseline was 4.8% for men and 3.6% for women. Patients with diabetes had a 1.89-fold risk of all-cause death compared with patients without diabetes (hazard ratio [HR], 1.89; 95% CI, 1.74-2.04), with the highest relative risk of death due to diabetes itself (HR, 22.8; 95% CI, 18.5-28.1), followed by renal disease (HR, 3.08; 95% CI, 2.50-3.78), coronary heart disease (HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 2.19-3.02), and ischemic stroke (HR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.85-2.51). The adverse diabetes-mortality associations were more evident among women (HR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.89-2.32) than among men (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.62-1.88) (P for interaction < .001) and more evident among adults aged 30 to 49 years (HR, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.08-2.84) than among adults aged 70 years and older (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.40-1.62) (P for interaction < .001). A similar pattern of association was found between diabetes and cause-specific mortality, with significant variations noted by sex and age.Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that diabetes was associated with increased risk of death from several diseases among Asian populations. Development and implementation of diabetes management programs are urgently needed to reduce the burden of diabetes in Asia.

Project description:BackgroundVitamin D deficiency causes the bone hypomineralization disorder osteomalacia in humans and is associated with many non-skeletal disorders. We aim to estimate the global and regional prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in people aged 1 year or older from 2000 to 2022.MethodsWe systematically searched Web of Science, PubMed (MEDLINE), Embase, Scopus, and Google databases on December 31, 2021, and updated them on August 20, 2022, without language and time restrictions. Meanwhile, we identified references of relevant system reviews and eligible articles and included the latest and unpublished data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 2015-2016 and 2017-2018) database. The studies investigating the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in population-based studies were included. A standardized data extraction form was used to collect information from eligible studies. We used a random-effects meta-analysis to estimate the global and regional prevalence of vitamin D deficiency. We stratified meta-analyses by latitude, season, six WHO regions, the World Bank income groups, gender, and age groups. This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021292586).FindingsOut of 67,340 records searched, 308 studies with 7,947,359 participants from 81 countries were eligible for this study, 202 (7,634,261 participants), 284 (1,475,339 participants), and 165 (561,978 participants) studies for the prevalence of serum 25(OH)D <30, <50, and <75 nmol/L, respectively. We found that globally, 15.7% (95% CrI 13.7-17.8), 47.9% (95% CrI 44.9-50.9), and 76·6% (95% CrI 74.0-79.1) of participants had serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels less than 30, 50, and 75 nmol/l, respectively; the prevalence slightly decreased from 2000-2010 to 2011-2022, but it was still at a high level; people living in high latitude areas had a higher prevalence; the prevalence in winter-spring was 1.7 (95% CrI 1.4-2.0) times that in summer-autumn; the Eastern Mediterranean region and Lower-middle-income countries had a higher prevalence; females were vulnerable to vitamin D deficiency; gender, sampling frame, detection assays, sampling region, time of data collection, season, and other factors contributed to heterogeneity between the included studies.InterpretationGlobally, vitamin D deficiency remained prevalent from 2000 to 2022. The high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency would increase the global burden of disease. Therefore, governments, policymakers, health workers, and individuals should attach importance to the high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and take its prevention as a public health priority.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021292586, PROSPERO CRD42021292586.