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Exploring the Distribution of the Spreading Lethal Salamander Chytrid Fungus in Its Invasive Range in Europe - A Macroecological Approach.

ABSTRACT: The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) is a dangerous pathogen to salamanders and newts. Apparently native to Asia, it has recently been detected in Western Europe where it is expected to spread and to have dramatic effects on naïve hosts. Since 2010, Bsal has led to some catastrophic population declines of urodeles in the Netherlands and Belgium. More recently, it has been discovered in additional, more distant sites including sites in Germany. With the purpose to contribute to a better understanding of Bsal, we modelled its potential distribution in its invasive European range to gain insights about the factors driving this distribution. We computed Bsal Maxent models for two predictor sets, which represent different temporal resolutions, using three different background extents to account for different invasion stage scenarios. Beside 'classical' bioclimate, we employed weather data, which allowed us to emphasize predictors in accordance with the known pathogen's biology. The most important predictors as well as spatial predictions varied between invasion scenarios and predictor sets. The most reasonable model was based on weather data and the scenario of a recent pathogen introduction. It identified temperature predictors, which represent optimal growing conditions and heat limiting conditions, as the most explaining drivers of the current distribution. This model also predicted large areas in the study region as suitable for Bsal. The other models predicted considerably less, but shared some areas which we interpreted as most likely high risk zones. Our results indicate that growth relevant temperatures measured under laboratory conditions might also be relevant on a macroecological scale, if predictors with a high temporal resolution and relevance are used. Additionally, the conditions in our study area support the possibility of a further Bsal spread, especially when considering that our models might tend to underestimate the potential distribution of Bsal.

SUBMITTER: Feldmeier S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5087956 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The rapid worldwide emergence of the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is having a profound negative impact on biodiversity. However, global research efforts are fragmented and an overarching synthesis of global infection data is lacking. Here, we provide results from a community tool for the compilation of worldwide Bd presence and report on the analyses of data collated over a four-year period. Using this online database, we analysed: 1) spatial and taxonomic patterns of infection, including amphibian families that appear over- and under-infected; 2) relationships between Bd occurrence and declining amphibian species, including associations among Bd occurrence, species richness, and enigmatic population declines; and 3) patterns of environmental correlates with Bd, including climate metrics for all species combined and three families (Hylidae, Bufonidae, Ranidae) separately, at both a global scale and regional (U.S.A.) scale. These associations provide new insights for downscaled hypothesis testing. The pathogen has been detected in 52 of 82 countries in which sampling was reported, and it has been detected in 516 of 1240 (42%) amphibian species. We show that detected Bd infections are related to amphibian biodiversity and locations experiencing rapid enigmatic declines, supporting the hypothesis that greater complexity of amphibian communities increases the likelihood of emergence of infection and transmission of Bd. Using a global model including all sampled species, the odds of Bd detection decreased with increasing temperature range at a site. Further consideration of temperature range, rather than maximum or minimum temperatures, may provide new insights into Bd-host ecology. Whereas caution is necessary when interpreting such a broad global dataset, the use of our pathogen database is helping to inform studies of the epidemiology of Bd, as well as enabling regional, national, and international prioritization of conservation efforts. We provide recommendations for adaptive management to enhance the database utility and relevance.

Dataset Information

Exploring the Distribution of the Spreading Lethal Salamander Chytrid Fungus in Its Invasive Range in Europe - A Macroecological Approach.

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