Selection of antigenically advanced variants of seasonal influenza viruses.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Li C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5087998 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Epidemics of seasonal influenza inflict a huge burden in temperate climes such as Melbourne (Australia) where there is also significant variability in their timing and magnitude. Particle filters combined with mechanistic transmission models for the spread of influenza have emerged as a popular method for forecasting the progression of these epidemics. Despite extensive research it is still unclear what the optimal models are for forecasting influenza, and how one even measures forecast performance. In this paper, we present a likelihood-based method, akin to Bayes factors, for model selection when the aim is to select for predictive skill. Here, "predictive skill" is measured by the probability of the data after the forecasting date, conditional on the data from before the forecasting date. Using this method we choose an optimal model of influenza transmission to forecast the number of laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza in Melbourne in each of the 2010-15 epidemics. The basic transmission model considered has the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered structure with extensions allowing for the effects of absolute humidity and inhomogeneous mixing in the population. While neither of the extensions provides a significant improvement in fit to the data they do differ in terms of their predictive skill. Both measurements of absolute humidity and a sinusoidal approximation of those measurements are observed to increase the predictive skill of the forecasts, while allowing for inhomogeneous mixing reduces the skill. We discuss how our work could be integrated into a forecasting system and how the model selection method could be used to evaluate forecasts when comparing to multiple surveillance systems providing disparate views of influenza activity.
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Project description:Egg-based seasonal influenza vaccines are the major preventive countermeasure against influenza virus. However, their effectiveness can be compromised when antigenic changes arise from egg-adaptive mutations on influenza hemagglutinin (HA). The L194P mutation is commonly observed in egg-based H3N2 vaccine seed strains and significantly alters HA antigenicity. An approach to prevent L194P would therefore be beneficial. We show that emergence of L194P during egg passaging can be impeded by preexistence of a G186V mutation, revealing strong incompatibility between these mutations. X-ray structures illustrate that individual G186V and L194P mutations have opposing effects on the HA receptor-binding site (RBS), and when both G186V and L194P are present, the RBS is severely disrupted. Importantly, wild-type HA antigenicity is maintained with G186V, but not L194P. Our results demonstrate that these epistatic interactions can be used to prevent the emergence of mutations that adversely alter antigenicity during egg adaptation.
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Project description:BackgroundAn avian-like H1N1 swine influenza virus (SIV) is enzootic in swine populations of Western Europe. The virus is antigenically distinct from H1N1 SIVs in North America that have a classical swine virus-lineage H1 hemagglutinin, as does the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus. However, the significance of this antigenic difference for cross-protection among pigs remains unknown.ObjectivesWe examined protection against infection with a North American triple reassortant H1N1 SIV [A/swine/Iowa/H04YS2/04 (sw/IA/04)] in pigs infected with a European avian-like SIV [A/swine/Belgium/1/98 (sw/B/98)] 4 weeks earlier. We also examined the genetic relationships and serologic cross-reactivity between both SIVs and with a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus [A/California/04/09 (Calif/09)].ResultsAfter intranasal inoculation with sw/IA/04, all previously uninfected control pigs showed nasal virus excretion, high virus titers in the entire respiratory tract at 4 days post-challenge (DPCh) and macroscopic lung lesions. Most pigs previously infected with sw/B/98 tested negative for sw/IA/04 in nasal swabs and respiratory tissues, and none had lung lesions. At challenge, these pigs had low levels of cross-reactive virus neutralizing and neuraminidase inhibiting (NI) antibodies to sw/IA/04, but no hemagglutination-inhibiting antibodies. They showed similar antibody profiles when tested against Calif/09, but NI antibody titers were higher against Calif/09 than sw/IA/04, reflecting the higher genetic homology of the sw/B/98 neuraminidase with Calif/09.ConclusionsOur data indicate that immunity induced by infection with European avian-like H1N1 SIV affords protection for pigs against North American H1N1 SIVs with a classical H1, and they suggest cross-protection against the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus.
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Project description:The 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza, though antigenically novel to the population at the time, was antigenically similar to the 1918 H1N1 pandemic influenza, and consequently was considered to be "archived" in the swine species before reemerging in humans. Given that the H3N2 is another subtype that currently circulates in the human population and is high on WHO pandemic preparedness list, we assessed the likelihood of reemergence of H3N2 from a non-human host. Using HA sequence features relevant to immune recognition, receptor binding and transmission we have identified several recent H3 strains in avian and swine that present hallmarks of a reemerging virus. IgG polyclonal raised in rabbit with recent seasonal vaccine H3 fail to recognize these swine H3 strains suggesting that existing vaccines may not be effective in protecting against these strains. Vaccine strategies can mitigate risks associated with a potential H3N2 pandemic in humans.
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