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Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination.

ABSTRACT: Interim results from the Guinea Ebola ring vaccination trial suggest high efficacy of the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine. These findings open the door to the use of ring vaccination strategies in which the contacts and contacts of contacts of each index case are promptly vaccinated to contain future Ebola virus disease outbreaks. To provide a numerical estimate of the effectiveness of ring vaccination strategies we introduce a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate Ebola outbreaks in the Pujehun district, Sierra Leone, structurally similar to previous modelling approaches. We find that ring vaccination can successfully contain an outbreak for values of the effective reproduction number up to 1.6. Through an extensive sensitivity analysis of parameters characterising the readiness and capacity of the health care system, we identify interventions that, alongside ring vaccination, could increase the likelihood of containment. In particular, shortening the time from symptoms onset to hospitalisation to 2-3 days on average through improved contact tracing procedures, adding a 2km spatial component to the vaccination ring, and decreasing human mobility by quarantining affected areas might contribute increase our ability to contain outbreaks with effective reproduction number up to 2.6. These results have implications for future control of Ebola and other emerging infectious disease threats.

SUBMITTER: Merler S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5091901 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination.

Merler Stefano S Ajelli Marco M Fumanelli Laura L Parlamento Stefano S Pastore Y Piontti Ana A Dean Natalie E NE Putoto Giovanni G Carraro Dante D Longini Ira M IM Halloran M Elizabeth ME Vespignani Alessandro A

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20161102 11

Interim results from the Guinea Ebola ring vaccination trial suggest high efficacy of the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine. These findings open the door to the use of ring vaccination strategies in which the contacts and contacts of contacts of each index case are promptly vaccinated to contain future Ebola virus disease outbreaks. To provide a numerical estimate of the effectiveness of ring vaccination strategies we introduce a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate Ebola outbreaks in the Pujehun d ...[more]

PMID: 27806049

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Project description:BackgroundThe current West Africa epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD), which began from Guinea in December 2013, has been the longest and deadliest Ebola outbreak to date. With the propagation of the internet, public health officials must now compete with other official and unofficial sources of information to get their message out.AimsThis study aimed at critically appraising videos available on one popular internet video site (YouTube) as a source of information for Ebola virus disease (EVD).Materials and methodsVideos were searched in YouTube (http://www.youtube.com) using the keyword "Ebola outbreak" from inception to November 1, 2014 with the default "relevance" filter. Only videos in English language under 10 min duration within first 10 pages of search were included. Duplicates were removed and the rest were classified as useful or misleading by two independent reviewers. Video sources were categorized by source. Inter-observer agreement was evaluated with kappa coefficient. Continuous and categorical variables were analyzed using the Student t-test and Chi-squared test, respectively.ResultsOne hundred and eighteen out of 198 videos were evaluated. Thirty-one (26.27%) videos were classified as misleading and 87 (73.73%) videos were classified as useful. The kappa coefficient of agreement regarding the usefulness of the videos was 0.68 (P < 0.001). Independent users were more likely to post misleading videos (93.55% vs 29.89%, OR = 34.02, 95% CI = 7.55-153.12, P < 0.001) whereas news agencies were most likely to post useful videos (65.52% vs 3.23%, OR = 57.00, 95% CI = 7.40-438.74, P < 0.001).ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that majority of the internet videos about Ebola on YouTube were characterized as useful. Although YouTube seems to generally be a useful source of information on the current outbreak, increased efforts to disseminate scientifically correct information is desired to prevent unnecessary panic among the among the general population.

Dataset Information

Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination.

Publications

Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination.

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