Dataset Information

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics.

ABSTRACT: The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species-area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays-an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur.

SUBMITTER: Fordham DA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5095186 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics.

Fordham Damien A DA Brook Barry W BW Hoskin Conrad J CJ Pressey Robert L RL VanDerWal Jeremy J Williams Stephen E SE

Biology letters 20161001 10

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species-area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays-an e ...[more]

PMID: 27729484

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Project description:Symbiotic bacterial communities resident on amphibian skin can benefit their hosts. For example, antibiotic production by community members can control the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and it is possible for these community members to be used as probiotics to reduce infection levels. In the early 1990s, the emergence of Bd caused declines and disappearances of frogs in the Australian Wet Tropics; the severity of its effects varied among species and sites. Some species have since recolonized despite enzootic Bd within their populations. This variation in history among species and sites provided an opportunity to investigate the role of anti-fungal cutaneous bacteria in protecting frogs against Bd infection. We collected cutaneous swab samples from three species of frogs at two upland and two lowland sites in the Wet Tropics, and used in vitro challenge assays to identify culturable Bd-inhibitory bacterial isolates for further analysis. We sequenced DNA from cultured inhibitory isolates to identify taxa, resulting in the classification of 16 Bd-inhibitory OTUs, and determined whether inhibitory taxa were associated with frog species, site, or intensity of infection. We present preliminary results showing that the upper limit of Bd infection intensity was negatively correlated with number of inhibitory OTUs present per frog indicating that increased numbers of Bd-inhibiting taxa may play a role in reducing the intensity of Bd infections, facilitating frog coexistence with enzootic Bd. One upland site had a significantly lower prevalence of Bd infection, a significantly higher proportion of frogs with one or more culturable Bd-inhibitory OTUs, a greater number of inhibitory bacterial genera present per frog, and statistically significant clustering of individual frogs with similar Bd-inhibitory signatures when compared to all other sites. This suggests that Bd-inhibitory taxa are likely to be particularly important to frogs at this site and may have played a role in their ability to recolonize following population declines. Our findings suggest that the use of multi-taxon Bd-inhibitory probiotics to support at-risk amphibian populations may be more effective than single-taxon alternatives.

Dataset Information

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics.

Publications

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics.

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