Waiting time to infectious disease emergence.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Dibble CJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5095216 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Waiting time to infectious disease emergence.
Dibble Christopher J CJ O'Dea Eamon B EB Park Andrew W AW Drake John M JM
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20161001 123
Emerging diseases must make a transition from stuttering chains of transmission to sustained chains of transmission, but this critical transition need not coincide with the system becoming supercritical. That is, the introduction of infection to a supercritical system results in a significant fraction of the population becoming infected only with a certain probability. Understanding the waiting time to the first major outbreak of an emerging disease is then more complicated than determining when ...[more]
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