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Using semi-Markov processes to study timeliness and tests used in the diagnostic evaluation of suspected breast cancer.

ABSTRACT: Diagnostic evaluation of suspected breast cancer due to abnormal screening mammography results is common, creates anxiety for women and is costly for the healthcare system. Timely evaluation with minimal use of additional diagnostic testing is key to minimizing anxiety and cost. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian semi-Markov model that allows for flexible, semi-parametric specification of the sojourn time distributions and apply our model to an investigation of the process of diagnostic evaluation with mammography, ultrasound and biopsy following an abnormal screening mammogram. We also investigate risk factors associated with the sojourn time between diagnostic tests. By utilizing semi-Markov processes, we expand on prior work that described the timing of the first test received by providing additional information such as the mean time to resolution and proportion of women with unresolved mammograms after 90 days for women requiring different sequences of tests in order to reach a definitive diagnosis. Overall, we found that older women were more likely to have unresolved positive mammograms after 90 days. Differences in the timing of imaging evaluation and biopsy were generally on the order of days and thus did not represent clinically important differences in diagnostic delay. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SUBMITTER: Hubbard RA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5096962 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using semi-Markov processes to study timeliness and tests used in the diagnostic evaluation of suspected breast cancer.

Hubbard R A RA Lange J J Zhang Y Y Salim B A BA Stroud J R JR Inoue L Y T LY

Statistics in medicine 20160721 27

Diagnostic evaluation of suspected breast cancer due to abnormal screening mammography results is common, creates anxiety for women and is costly for the healthcare system. Timely evaluation with minimal use of additional diagnostic testing is key to minimizing anxiety and cost. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian semi-Markov model that allows for flexible, semi-parametric specification of the sojourn time distributions and apply our model to an investigation of the process of diagnostic evalua ...[more]

PMID: 27439856

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Project description:Sepsis is a serious medical condition requiring timely administered, appropriate antibiotic therapy. Blood culture is regarded as the gold standard for aetiological diagnosis of sepsis, but it suffers from low sensitivity and long turnaround time. Thus, nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) have emerged to shorten the time to identification of causative microbes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the clinical utility in everyday practice in the emergency department of two commercial NAATs in patients suspected with sepsis.During a six-week period, blood samples were collected consecutively from all adult patients admitted to the general emergency department for suspicion of a community-onset sepsis and treated with intravenous antibiotics. Along with conventional blood cultures, multiplex PCR (Magicplex™) was performed on whole blood specimens whereas portions from blood culture bottles were used for analysis by microarray-based assay (Prove-it™). The aetiological significance of identified organisms was determined by two infectious disease physicians based on clinical presentation and expected pathogenicity.Among 382 episodes of suspected sepsis, clinically relevant microbes were detected by blood culture in 42 episodes (11%), by multiplex PCR in 37 episodes (9.7%), and by microarray in 32 episodes (8.4%). Although moderate agreement with blood culture (kappa 0.50), the multiplex PCR added diagnostic value by timely detection of 15 clinically relevant findings in blood culture-negative specimens. Results of the microarray corresponded very well to those of blood culture (kappa 0.90), but were available just marginally prior to blood culture results.The use of NAATs on whole blood specimens in adjunct to current culture-based methods provides a clinical add-on value by allowing for detection of organisms missed by blood culture. However, the aetiological significance of findings detected by NAATs should be interpreted with caution as the high analytical sensitivity may add findings that do not necessarily corroborate with the clinical diagnosis.

Project description:BackgroundThe World Health Organization (WHO) has targeted a reduction in viral hepatitis-related mortality by 65% and incidence by 90% by 2030, necessitating enhanced hepatitis B treatment and prevention programmes in low- and middle-income countries. Hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) status is used in the assessment of eligibility for antiviral treatment and for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). Accordingly, the WHO has classified HBeAg rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) as essential medical devices.MethodsWe assessed the performance characteristics of three commercially available HBeAg RDTs (SD Bioline, Alere, South Africa; Creative Diagnostics, USA; and Biopanda Reagents, UK) in two hepatitis B surface antigen-positive cohorts in Blantyre, Malawi: participants of a community study (n = 100) and hospitalised patients with cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 94). Two investigators, blinded to the reference test result, independently assessed each assay. We used an enzyme-linked immunoassay (Monolisa HBeAg, Bio-Rad, France) as a reference test and quantified HBeAg concentration using dilutions of the WHO HBeAg standard. We related the findings to HBV DNA levels, and evaluated treatment eligibility using the TREAT-B score.ResultsAmong 194 HBsAg positive patients, median age was 37 years, 42% were femaleand 26% were HIV co-infected. HBeAg prevalence was 47/194 (24%). The three RDTs showed diagnostic sensitivity of 28% (95% CI 16-43), 53% (38-68) and 72% (57-84) and specificity of 96-100% for detection of HBeAg. Overall inter-rater agreement κ statistic was high at 0.9-1.0. Sensitivity for identifying patients at the threshold where antiviral treatment is recommended for PMTCT, with HBV DNA > 200,000 IU/ml (39/194; 20%), was 22, 49 and 54% respectively. Using the RDTs in place of the reference HBeAg assay resulted in 3/43 (9%), 5/43 (12%) and 8/43 (19%) of patients meeting the TREAT-B treatment criteria being misclassified as ineligible for treatment. A relationship between HBeAg concentration and HBeAg detection by RDT was observed. A minimum HBeAg concentration of 2.2-3.1 log10IU/ml was required to yield a reactive RDT.ConclusionsCommercially available HBeAg RDTs lack sufficient sensitivity to accurately classify hepatitis B patients in Malawi. This has implications for hepatitis B public health programs in sub-Saharan Africa. Alternative diagnostic assays are recommended.

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Using semi-Markov processes to study timeliness and tests used in the diagnostic evaluation of suspected breast cancer.

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Using semi-Markov processes to study timeliness and tests used in the diagnostic evaluation of suspected breast cancer.

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