Dataset Information

Estimating the Lineage Dynamics of Human Influenza B Viruses.

ABSTRACT: The prediction of the lineage dynamics of influenza B viruses for the next season is one of the largest obstacles for constructing an appropriate influenza trivalent vaccine. Seasonal fluctuation of transmissibility and epidemiological interference between the two major influenza B lineages make the lineage dynamics complicated. Here we construct a parsimonious model describing the lineage dynamics while taking into account seasonal fluctuation of transmissibility and epidemiological interference. Using this model we estimated the epidemiological and evolutional parameters with the time-series data of the lineage specific isolates in Japan from the 2010-2011 season to the 2014-2015 season. The basic reproduction number is similar between Victoria and Yamagata, with a minimum value during one year as 0.82 (95% highest posterior density (HPD): 0.77-0.87) for the Yamagata and 0.83 (95% HPD: 0.74-0.92) for Victoria, the amplitude of seasonal variation of the basic reproduction number is 0.77 (95% HPD:0.66-0.87) for Yamagata and 1.05 (95% HPD: 0.89-1.02) for Victoria. The duration for which the acquired immunity is effective against infection by the Yamagata lineage is shorter than the acquired immunity for Victoria, 424.1days (95% HPD:317.4-561.5days). The reduction rate of susceptibility due to immune cross-reaction is 0.51 (95% HPD: 0.084-0.92) for the immunity obtained from the infection with Yamagata against the infection with Victoria and 0.62 (95% HPD: 0.42-0.80) for the immunity obtained from the infection with Victoria against the infection with Yamagata. Using estimated parameters, we predicted the dominant lineage in 2015-2016 season. The accuracy of this prediction is 68.8% if the emergence timings of the two lineages are known and 61.4% if the emergence timings are unknown. Estimated seasonal variation of the lineage specific reproduction number can narrow down the range of emergence timing, with an accuracy of 64.6% if the emergence times are assumed to be the time at which the estimated reproduction number exceeds one.

SUBMITTER: Nyirenda M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5102436 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating the Lineage Dynamics of Human Influenza B Viruses.

Nyirenda Mayumbo M Omori Ryosuke R Tessmer Heidi L HL Arimura Hiroki H Ito Kimihito K

PloS one 20161109 11

The prediction of the lineage dynamics of influenza B viruses for the next season is one of the largest obstacles for constructing an appropriate influenza trivalent vaccine. Seasonal fluctuation of transmissibility and epidemiological interference between the two major influenza B lineages make the lineage dynamics complicated. Here we construct a parsimonious model describing the lineage dynamics while taking into account seasonal fluctuation of transmissibility and epidemiological interferenc ...[more]

PMID: 27829058

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Project description:Influenza B virus (IBV) undergoes seasonal antigenic drift more slowly than influenza A virus, but the reasons for this difference are unclear. While the evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses play out globally, they are fundamentally driven by mutation, reassortment, drift, and selection at the level of individual hosts. These processes have recently been described for influenza A virus, but little is known about the evolutionary dynamics of IBV during individual infections and transmission events. Here, we define the within-host evolutionary dynamics of IBV by sequencing virus populations from naturally infected individuals enrolled in a prospective, community-based cohort over 8,176 person-seasons of observation. Through analysis of high depth-of-coverage sequencing data from samples from 91 individuals with influenza B, we find that IBV accumulates lower genetic diversity than previously observed for influenza A virus during acute infections. Consistent with studies of influenza A viruses, the within-host evolution of IBVs is characterized by purifying selection and the general absence of widespread positive selection of within-host variants. Analysis of shared genetic diversity across 15 sequence-validated transmission pairs suggests that IBV experiences a tight transmission bottleneck similar to that of influenza A virus. These patterns of local-scale evolution are consistent with the lower global evolutionary rate of IBV.IMPORTANCE The evolution of influenza virus is a significant public health problem and necessitates the annual evaluation of influenza vaccine formulation to keep pace with viral escape from herd immunity. Influenza B virus is a serious health concern for children, in particular, yet remains understudied compared to influenza A virus. Influenza B virus evolves more slowly than influenza A virus, but the factors underlying this are not completely understood. We studied how the within-host diversity of influenza B virus relates to its global evolution by sequencing viruses from a community-based cohort. We found that influenza B virus populations have lower within-host genetic diversity than influenza A virus and experience a tight genetic bottleneck during transmission. Our work provides insights into the varying dynamics of influenza viruses in human infection.

Project description:Since influenza C virus was first isolated in 1947, the virus has been only occasionally isolated by cell culture; there are only four strains for which complete genome sequences are registered. Here, we analyzed a total of 106 complete genomes, ranging from the first isolate from 1947 to recent isolates from 2014, to determine the genetic lineages of influenza C virus, the reassortment events, and the rates of nucleotide substitution. The results showed that there are six lineages, named C/Taylor, C/Mississippi, C/Aichi, C/Yamagata, C/Kanagawa, and C/Sao Paulo. They contain both antigenic and genetic lineages of the hemagglutinin-esterase (HE) gene, and the internal genes PB2, PB1, P3, NP, M, and NS are divided into two major lineages, a C/Mississippi/80-related lineage and a C/Yamagata/81-related lineage. Reassortment events were found over the entire period of 68 years. Several outbreaks of influenza C virus between 1990 and 2014 in Japan consisted of reassortant viruses, suggesting that the genomic constellation is related to influenza C virus epidemics. The nucleotide sequences were highly homologous to each other. The minimum percent identity between viruses ranged from 91.1% for the HE gene to 96.1% for the M gene, and the rate of nucleotide substitution for the HE gene was the highest, at 5.20 × 10(-4) substitutions/site/year. These results indicate that reassortment is an important factor that increases the genetic diversity of influenza C virus, resulting in its ability to prevail in humans. IMPORTANCE Influenza C virus is a pathogen that causes acute respiratory illness in children and results in hospitalization of infants. We previously demonstrated (Y. Matsuzaki et al., J Clin Virol 61:87-93, 2014, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2014.06.017) that periodic epidemics of this virus occurred in Japan between 1996 and 2014 and that replacement of the dominant antigenic group occurred every several years as a result of selection by herd immunity. However, the antigenicity of the HE glycoprotein is highly stable, and antigenic drift has not occurred for at least 30 years. Here, we analyzed a total of 106 complete genomes spanning 68 years for the first time, and we found that influenza C viruses are circulating worldwide while undergoing reassortment as well as selection by herd immunity, resulting in an increased ability to prevail in humans. The results presented in this study contribute to the understanding of the evolution, including reassortment events, underlying influenza C virus epidemics.

Dataset Information

Estimating the Lineage Dynamics of Human Influenza B Viruses.

Publications

Estimating the Lineage Dynamics of Human Influenza B Viruses.

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