Dataset Information

Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics.

ABSTRACT: The spread of infectious diseases can be impacted by human behavior, and behavioral decisions often depend implicitly on a planning horizon-the time in the future over which options are weighed. We investigate the effects of planning horizons on epidemic dynamics. We developed an epidemiological agent-based model (along with an ODE analog) to explore the decision-making of self-interested individuals on adopting prophylactic behavior. The decision-making process incorporates prophylaxis efficacy and disease prevalence with the individuals' payoffs and planning horizon. Our results show that for short and long planning horizons individuals do not consider engaging in prophylactic behavior. In contrast, individuals adopt prophylactic behavior when considering intermediate planning horizons. Such adoption, however, is not always monotonically associated with the prevalence of the disease, depending on the perceived protection efficacy and the disease parameters. Adoption of prophylactic behavior reduces the epidemic peak size while prolonging the epidemic and potentially generates secondary waves of infection. These effects can be made stronger by increasing the behavioral decision frequency or distorting an individual's perceived risk of infection.

SUBMITTER: Nardin LG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5103819 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics.

Nardin Luis G LG Miller Craig R CR Ridenhour Benjamin J BJ Krone Stephen M SM Joyce Paul P Baumgaertner Bert O BO

PeerJ 20161108

The spread of infectious diseases can be impacted by human behavior, and behavioral decisions often depend implicitly on a planning horizon-the time in the future over which options are weighed. We investigate the effects of planning horizons on epidemic dynamics. We developed an epidemiological agent-based model (along with an ODE analog) to explore the decision-making of self-interested individuals on adopting prophylactic behavior. The decision-making process incorporates prophylaxis efficacy ...[more]

PMID: 27843714

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Project description:In a social group, animals make behavioral decisions that fit their social ranks. These behavioral choices are dependent on the various social cues experienced during social interactions. In vertebrates, little is known of how social status affects the underlying neural mechanisms regulating decision-making circuits that drive competing behaviors. Here, we demonstrate that social status in zebrafish (Danio rerio) influences behavioral decisions by shifting the balance in neural circuit activation between two competing networks (escape and swim). We show that socially dominant animals enhance activation of the swim circuit. Conversely, social subordinates display a decreased activation of the swim circuit, but an enhanced activation of the escape circuit. In an effort to understand how social status mediates these effects, we constructed a neurocomputational model of the escape and swim circuits. The model replicates our findings and suggests that social status-related shift in circuit dynamics could be mediated by changes in the relative excitability of the escape and swim networks. Together, our results reveal that changes in the excitabilities of the Mauthner command neuron for escape and the inhibitory interneurons that regulate swimming provide a cellular mechanism for the nervous system to adapt to changes in social conditions by permitting the animal to select a socially appropriate behavioral response.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Understanding how social factors influence nervous system function is of great importance. Using zebrafish as a model system, we demonstrate how social experience affects decision making to enable animals to produce socially appropriate behavior. Based on experimental evidence and computational modeling, we show that behavioral decisions reflect the interplay between competing neural circuits whose activation thresholds shift in accordance with social status. We demonstrate this through analysis of the behavior and neural circuit responses that drive escape and swim behaviors in fish. We show that socially subordinate animals favor escape over swimming, while socially dominants favor swimming over escape. We propose that these differences are mediated by shifts in relative circuit excitability.

Dataset Information

Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics.

Publications

Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics.

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